ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio 9 de Mayo
Referee: Gorky Stalin Araujo Zambrano, Ecuador
Orense SC
Match Timeline
Emelec
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
21'
J. Ruiz · Assist: F. Pizzini
Emelec
🟨
23'
Ignacio Guerrico
Emelec
🟨
25'
Sixto Mina
Orense SC
🟨
32'
Gonzalo Martin Rostagno
Orense SC
🟨
36'
Pedro Velasco
Orense SC
🟥
36'
Pedro Velasco
Orense SC
🔄
46'
G. Rostagno ↔ B. Quinonez
Orense SC
🔄
55'
M. Parrales ↔ M. Bermudez
Orense SC
🟨
59'
Ignacio Guerrico
Emelec
🟥
59'
Ignacio Guerrico
Emelec
🔄
62'
F. Pizzini ↔ A. Mina
Emelec
🔄
72'
A. Mena ↔ D. Quintero
Orense SC
🔄
72'
E. S. Zambrano Pesantez ↔ L. Garces
Orense SC
🔄
76'
G. Napoli ↔ J. Cevallos
Emelec
🔄
76'
↔ S. Valencia
Emelec
🟨
79'
Agustin Herrera
Orense SC
🟨
82'
Sergio Vásquez
Orense SC
🔄
85'
B. Caicedo ↔ B. Vinan
Orense SC
🔄
86'
J. Ruiz ↔ L. Fragozo
Emelec
🔄
86'
L. Klimowicz ↔ S. Quintero
Emelec
🟨
90'
Jordy Ortiz
Orense SC
90'
S. Quintero · Assist: L. Fragozo
Emelec

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 69.8%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 60.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 65.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
69.8%
-
BTTS No
60.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
65.5%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
81.9%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 1-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Orense SC Win 41%
Draw 28.8%
Emelec Win 30.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Orense SC1.11
Emelec1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Orense SC Orense SC
WWDLW
22 GF / 24 GA
Emelec Emelec
WLDWL
14 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.22
Average Goals Scored
0.78
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
0.94
12
BTTS Yes
6
10
Over 2.5
2
3.89
Shots on Goal
2.94

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Orense SC Orense SC 18 matches
Emelec Emelec 18 matches
Orense SC Statistic Emelec
6 Wins 6
5 Draws 6
7 Losses 6
22 Goals For 14
24 Goals Against 17
1.22 Avg Goals Scored 0.78
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 0.94
12 BTTS Yes 6
15 Over 1.5 12
10 Over 2.5 2
3 Over 3.5 1
4 Clean Sheets 7
4 Failed To Score 7
3.89 Shots On Goal 2.94
9.78 Total Shots 10.33
3.17 Corners 4.56
45.8% Ball Possession 45.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Orense SC expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Emelec in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Emelec having the stronger overall control. Orense SC have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Emelec. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Orense SC Analysis

Orense SC sit 10 with 23 points after 18 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 22:24, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through A. Herrera (5 goals), Erick Zambrano (2 goals), Sergio Vásquez (2 goals), with creative support from Erick Zambrano (3 assists), Valentín Burgoa (2 assists), A. Herrera (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Emelec Analysis

From their first 18 matches, Emelec have collected 21 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, while the 14:17 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Luca Klimowicz (4 goals), Romario Caicedo (2 goals), Ignacio Guerrico (1 goals), with creative support from Angelo Mina (2 assists), Francisco Pizzini (2 assists), Luca Klimowicz (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Orense SC won 2 times, Emelec won 7 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:16 from Orense SC's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (71.3%)
Predicted formations: Orense SC 5-3-2 / Emelec 4-4-2
H2H summary: Orense SC wins 2, draws 5, Emelec wins 7
Stats
Orense SC Orense SC
Emelec Emelec
Shots on Goal
1
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
2
5 Corner Kicks 1
19 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 4
59% Ball Possession 41%
7 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Goal 5
3 Shots off Goal 4
3 Blocked Shots 2
3 Shots insidebox 6
4 Shots outsidebox 5
2 Goalkeeper Saves 1
434 Total passes 303
373 Passes accurate 255
0.35 expected_goals 1.79
🟨 6 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 1 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

Orense SC
Formation
Emelec
J. Ortiz
J. Ortiz
P. Velasco
P. Velasco
A. Lorenzo
A. Lorenzo
S. Mina
S. Mina
B. Caicedo
B. Caicedo
E. S. Zambrano Pesantez
E. S. Zambrano Pesantez
S. Vasquez
S. Vasquez
G. Rostagno
G. Rostagno
A. Herrera
A. Herrera
A. Mena
A. Mena
M. Parrales
M. Parrales
P. Ortiz
P. Ortiz
R. Caicedo
R. Caicedo
A. Leguizamon
A. Leguizamon
E. Segura
E. Segura
I. Guerrico
I. Guerrico
V. Griffith
V. Griffith
J. Ruiz
J. Ruiz
A. Mina
A. Mina
G. Napoli
G. Napoli
F. Pizzini
🎯
F. Pizzini
L. Klimowicz
L. Klimowicz
Orense SC 4-4-2
Starting XI
22
J. Ortiz
🟨 90'
G
31
P. Velasco
🟨 36' 🟥 36'
D
5
A. Lorenzo
D
3
S. Mina
🟨 25'
D
15
B. Caicedo
↓ 85'
D
54
E. S. Zambrano Pesantez
↓ 72'
M
7
S. Vasquez
🟨 82'
M
21
G. Rostagno
↓ 46' 🟨 32'
M
11
A. Herrera
🟨 79'
M
13
A. Mena
↓ 72'
F
10
M. Parrales
↓ 55'
F
Substitutes
12
R. Silva
G
6
S. Callegari
D
8
D. Armas
M
77
B. Vinan
↑ 85'
D
14
E. Pluas
M
4
S. Quinonez
D
2
B. Quinonez
↑ 46'
D
19
M. Bermudez
↑ 55'
50
E. Hernandez
M
33
D. Quintero
↑ 72'
F
53
L. Garces
↑ 72'
F
59
J. Vera
M
Emelec 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
12
P. Ortiz
G
14
R. Caicedo
D
2
A. Leguizamon
D
4
E. Segura
D
3
I. Guerrico
🟨 23' 🟨 59' 🟥 59'
D
6
V. Griffith
M
19
J. Ruiz
⚽ 21' ↓ 86'
M
5
A. Mina
M
8
G. Napoli
↓ 76'
M
10
F. Pizzini
🎯 21' ↓ 62'
M
7
L. Klimowicz
↓ 86'
F
Substitutes
1
M. Valero
G
17
J. Ayovi
F
27
F. Leon
D
9
J. Neris
F
15
L. Fragozo
🎯 90' ↑ 86'
F
21
J. Cevallos
↑ 76'
M
16
S. Quintero
⚽ 90' ↑ 86'
M
51
S. Valencia
↑ 76'
30
A. Mina
↑ 62'
D
24
A. Viteri
28
B. Tobar
M
Last matches: Orense SC
23.08.26
Lig
Orense SC
Barcelona SC
0
3
L
16.08.26
Lig
Orense SC
Deportivo Cuenca
2
0
W
09.08.26
Lig
Orense SC
Delfin SC
1
1
D
01.08.26
Lig
Orense SC
Libertad
0
3
L
26.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
2
3
L
23.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Aucas
2
1
W
20.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Mushuc Runa SC
1
2
L
11.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Manta FC
0
0
D
07.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
01.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
LDU de Quito
0
3
L
23.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Universidad Catolica
1
2
L
19.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Guayaquil City FC
1
0
W
09.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Leones del Norte
2
0
W
03.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Macara
2
1
W
26.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
22.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Deportivo Cuenca
3
1
W
19.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Delfin SC
0
0
D
12.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Libertad
2
1
W
04.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
0
2
L
24.03.26
Lig
Orense SC
Aucas
2
3
L
Last matches: Emelec
24.08.26
Lig
Emelec
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
16.08.26
Lig
Emelec
Tecnico Universitario
2
1
W
10.08.26
Lig
Emelec
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D
02.08.26
Lig
Emelec
Aucas
0
2
L
28.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Deportivo Cuenca
1
2
L
24.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
1
1
D
20.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Independiente del Valle
1
6
L
12.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Barcelona SC
0
0
D
05.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Delfin SC
1
1
D
31.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Universidad Catolica
1
0
W
24.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Macara
2
0
W
17.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Manta FC
0
0
D
10.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Libertad
1
1
D
03.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Leones del Norte
0
2
L
25.04.26
Lig
Emelec
LDU de Quito
1
0
W
22.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
W
18.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Guayaquil City FC
1
3
L
12.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Aucas
0
2
L
09.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Universidad Catolica
1
1
D
05.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Deportivo Cuenca
0
2
L
H2H: Orense SC vs Emelec
17.07.26
H2H
Orense SC
Emelec
0
2
L
15.03.26
H2H
Emelec
Orense SC
2
1
L
28.09.25
H2H
Orense SC
Emelec
0
0
D
01.06.25
H2H
Emelec
Orense SC
1
0
L
01.09.24
H2H
Emelec
Orense SC
2
1
L
26.03.24
H2H
Orense SC
Emelec
1
1
D
13.08.23
H2H
Emelec
Orense SC
0
0
D
06.03.23
H2H
Orense SC
Emelec
2
1
W
09.10.22
H2H
Emelec
Orense SC
0
0
D
15.05.22
H2H
Orense SC
Emelec
2
0
W
16.10.21
H2H
Emelec
Orense SC
1
0
L
02.05.21
H2H
Orense SC
Emelec
2
3
L
15.10.20
H2H
Emelec
Orense SC
1
0
L
15.02.20
H2H
Orense SC
Emelec
2
2
D
Last matches: Orense SC
16.08.26
Lig
Orense SC
Deportivo Cuenca
2
0
W
26.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
2
3
L
23.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Aucas
2
1
W
07.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
23.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Universidad Catolica
1
2
L
09.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Leones del Norte
2
0
W
26.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
19.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Delfin SC
0
0
D
12.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Libertad
2
1
W
19.03.26
Lig
Orense SC
Mushuc Runa SC
3
2
W
10.03.26
Lig
Orense SC
Manta FC
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lig
Orense SC
LDU de Quito
1
2
L
H2H at home: Orense SC
17.07.26
H2H
Orense SC
Emelec
0
2
L
28.09.25
H2H
Orense SC
Emelec
0
0
D
26.03.24
H2H
Orense SC
Emelec
1
1
D
06.03.23
H2H
Orense SC
Emelec
2
1
W
15.05.22
H2H
Orense SC
Emelec
2
0
W
02.05.21
H2H
Orense SC
Emelec
2
3
L
15.02.20
H2H
Orense SC
Emelec
2
2
D
Last matches: Emelec
24.08.26
Lig
Emelec
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
10.08.26
Lig
Emelec
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D
28.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Deportivo Cuenca
1
2
L
20.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Independiente del Valle
1
6
L
05.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Delfin SC
1
1
D
17.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Manta FC
0
0
D
03.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Leones del Norte
0
2
L
22.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
W
12.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Aucas
0
2
L
09.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Universidad Catolica
1
1
D
22.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
0
2
L
07.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
H2H away: Emelec
17.07.26
H2H
Orense SC
Emelec
0
2
W
28.09.25
H2H
Orense SC
Emelec
0
0
D
26.03.24
H2H
Orense SC
Emelec
1
1
D
06.03.23
H2H
Orense SC
Emelec
2
1
L
15.05.22
H2H
Orense SC
Emelec
2
0
L
02.05.21
H2H
Orense SC
Emelec
2
3
W
15.02.20
H2H
Orense SC
Emelec
2
2
D

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 22 2 3 66:28 38 68
D W W W W
2 27 12 8 7 47:25 22 44
D W D L W
3 26 13 5 8 30:26 4 44
W L W W L
4 26 12 6 8 33:26 7 42
L D W W W
5 27 12 5 10 27:22 5 41
L W W L W
6 27 10 9 8 28:22 6 39
L W D L D
7 26 10 7 9 29:29 0 37
W D W W W
8 27 9 9 9 33:34 -1 36
W D D W W
9 27 9 9 9 27:30 -3 36
W W D D L
10 26 9 8 9 28:28 0 35
L W L D W
11 27 9 5 13 23:35 -12 32
L D L L L
12 26 8 6 12 30:39 -9 30
L W D L L
13 26 8 8 10 21:31 -10 29
L W D L L
14 27 9 2 16 26:38 -12 29
W L L L L
15 27 6 6 15 17:29 -12 24
L L L D L
16 27 5 5 17 14:37 -23 20
W L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs