LATVIA › VIRSLIGA
26.06.2026 15:00
Referee: A. Anufrijevs
Ogre United
Match Timeline
Tukums
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
1'
K. Cudars · Assist: M. Lormanis
Ogre United
⚽
20'
R. Deruzinskis · Assist: M. Derkach
Tukums
⚽
31'
R. Deruzinskis · Assist: Anmanis Kaspars
Tukums
🔄
46'
E. Evelons ↔ K. Johnson
Ogre United
🔄
57'
K. Gulbis ↔ A. Doroshenko
Ogre United
🔄
57'
V. Mashchenko ↔ M. Marusii
Ogre United
🟨
60'
T. Mickevics
Ogre United
🟨
73'
M. Stals
Tukums
🔄
76'
T. Mickevics ↔ L. Estevez Fernandez
Ogre United
🔄
76'
D. Vejkrigers ↔ F. Machado
Ogre United
🔄
77'
Leoni ↔ R. Baumanis
Tukums
⚽
77'
F. Machado · Assist: M. Marusii
Ogre United
🟨
85'
A. Enyou
Tukums
🟨
90+2'
Anmanis Kaspars
Tukums
🟥
90+8'
R. Reingolcs
Tukums
⚽
90'
K. Cudars
Ogre United

Ogre United vs Tukums Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 77.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
77.5%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Ogre United Win 22.6%
Draw 34.3%
Tukums Win 43.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ogre United1.25
Tukums2.01
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ogre United Ogre United
WWDLW
17 GF / 51 GA
Tukums Tukums
WLDWL
38 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
0.81
Average Goals Scored
1.73
2.43
Average Goals Conceded
1.91
13
BTTS Yes
20
11
Over 2.5
17
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ogre United Ogre United 21 matches
Tukums Tukums 22 matches
Ogre United Statistic Tukums
1 Wins 3
4 Draws 10
16 Losses 9
17 Goals For 38
51 Goals Against 42
0.81 Avg Goals Scored 1.73
2.43 Avg Goals Conceded 1.91
13 BTTS Yes 20
18 Over 1.5 22
11 Over 2.5 17
8 Over 3.5 10
1 Clean Sheets 1
7 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Tukums having the stronger overall control. Tukums carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 17 points while Ogre United sit 10 on 7, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Tukums. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Ogre United Analysis

With 7 points from 18 games and a place of 10, Ogre United still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 4 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 16:42 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on K. Cudars (5 goals), E. Evelons (2 goals), K. Johnson (2 goals), with creative support from M. Kalnins (2 assists), K. Cudars (1 assists), M. Ivulans (1 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Tukums Analysis

With 17 points from 18 games and a place of 7, Tukums still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 3 wins, 8 draws, and 7 defeats with a 32:32 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on E. Oloko (16 goals), R. Deruzinskis (6 goals), Leoni (4 goals), with creative support from B. Samoilovs (7 assists), R. Deruzinskis (2 assists), Anmanis Kaspars (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Ogre United won 1 times, Tukums won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:9 from Ogre United's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 4.67 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (77.5%)
Predicted formations: Ogre United - / Tukums 3-5-2
H2H summary: Ogre United wins 1, draws 1, Tukums wins 1

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 23 5 2 71:22 49 74
D W D W D
2 31 22 7 2 86:30 56 73
W W D D L
3 31 18 7 6 49:30 19 61
D W D W D
4 31 12 7 12 41:43 -2 43
D D D W L
5 31 10 9 12 35:35 0 39
D L D L D
6 30 10 5 15 29:40 -11 35
L L W W D
7 31 8 8 15 32:49 -17 32
L D L W W
8 31 5 11 15 21:52 -31 26
D D L W L
9 31 5 9 17 44:61 -17 24
D L W L L
10 31 4 6 21 30:76 -46 18
W L D L L