LATVIA VIRSLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Referee: A. Anufrijevs
Ogre United
Match Timeline
Tukums
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
1'
K. Cudars · Assist: M. Lormanis
Ogre United
20'
R. Deruzinskis · Assist: M. Derkach
Tukums
31'
R. Deruzinskis · Assist: Anmanis Kaspars
Tukums
🔄
46'
E. Evelons ↔ K. Johnson
Ogre United
🔄
57'
K. Gulbis ↔ A. Doroshenko
Ogre United
🔄
57'
V. Mashchenko ↔ M. Marusii
Ogre United
🟨
60'
T. Mickevics
Ogre United
🟨
73'
M. Stals
Tukums
🔄
76'
T. Mickevics ↔ L. Estevez Fernandez
Ogre United
🔄
76'
D. Vejkrigers ↔ F. Machado
Ogre United
🔄
77'
Leoni ↔ R. Baumanis
Tukums
77'
F. Machado · Assist: M. Marusii
Ogre United
🟨
85'
A. Enyou
Tukums
🟨
90+2'
Anmanis Kaspars
Tukums
🟥
90+8'
R. Reingolcs
Tukums
90'
K. Cudars
Ogre United

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 77.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
77.5%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ogre United Win 22.6%
Draw 34.3%
Tukums Win 43.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ogre United1.25
Tukums2.01
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ogre United Ogre United
WWDLW
17 GF / 51 GA
Tukums Tukums
WLDWL
38 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
0.81
Average Goals Scored
1.73
2.43
Average Goals Conceded
1.91
13
BTTS Yes
20
11
Over 2.5
17
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ogre United Ogre United 21 matches
Tukums Tukums 22 matches
Ogre United Statistic Tukums
1 Wins 3
4 Draws 10
16 Losses 9
17 Goals For 38
51 Goals Against 42
0.81 Avg Goals Scored 1.73
2.43 Avg Goals Conceded 1.91
13 BTTS Yes 20
18 Over 1.5 22
11 Over 2.5 17
8 Over 3.5 10
1 Clean Sheets 1
7 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Tukums having the stronger overall control. Tukums carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 17 points while Ogre United sit 10 on 7, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Tukums. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Ogre United Analysis

With 7 points from 18 games and a place of 10, Ogre United still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 4 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 16:42 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on K. Cudars (5 goals), E. Evelons (2 goals), K. Johnson (2 goals), with creative support from M. Kalnins (2 assists), K. Cudars (1 assists), M. Ivulans (1 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Tukums Analysis

With 17 points from 18 games and a place of 7, Tukums still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 3 wins, 8 draws, and 7 defeats with a 32:32 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on E. Oloko (16 goals), R. Deruzinskis (6 goals), Leoni (4 goals), with creative support from B. Samoilovs (7 assists), R. Deruzinskis (2 assists), Anmanis Kaspars (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Ogre United won 1 times, Tukums won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:9 from Ogre United's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 4.67 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (77.5%)
H2H summary: Ogre United wins 1, draws 1, Tukums wins 1

Lineups

Tukums
Formation
Ogre United
I. Baturins
I. Baturins
M. Stals
M. Stals
H. Joksts
H. Joksts
A. Enyou
A. Enyou
R. Reingolcs
R. Reingolcs
Anmanis Kaspars
🎯
Anmanis Kaspars
S. Shibata
S. Shibata
M. Derkach
🎯
M. Derkach
B. Samoilovs
B. Samoilovs
Leoni
Leoni
R. Deruzinskis
⚽ 2
R. Deruzinskis
N. Parfjonovs
N. Parfjonovs
M. Lormanis
🎯
M. Lormanis
K. Gulbis
K. Gulbis
A. Kudelkins
A. Kudelkins
D. Vejkrigers
D. Vejkrigers
K. Hayashi
K. Hayashi
T. Mickevics
T. Mickevics
V. Mashchenko
V. Mashchenko
K. Cudars
⚽ 2
K. Cudars
M. Kalnins
M. Kalnins
E. Evelons
E. Evelons
Tukums 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
97
I. Baturins
88
M. Stals
🟨 73'
25
H. Joksts
46
A. Enyou
🟨 85'
8
R. Reingolcs
🟥 90+8'
4
Anmanis Kaspars
🎯 31' 🟨 90+2'
7
S. Shibata
17
M. Derkach
🎯 20'
10
B. Samoilovs
11
Leoni
↓ 77'
27
R. Deruzinskis
⚽ 20' ⚽ 31'
Substitutes
35
K. Minajevs
21
D. Valmiers
16
K. Klavins
28
R. Melkis
22
R. Baumanis
↑ 77'
5
J. Toba
30
M. Susts
18
D. Calbergs
37
T. Matsubara
Ogre United 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
N. Parfjonovs
37
M. Lormanis
🎯 1'
13
K. Gulbis
↓ 57'
55
A. Kudelkins
6
D. Vejkrigers
↓ 76'
5
K. Hayashi
8
T. Mickevics
↓ 76' 🟨 60'
17
V. Mashchenko
↓ 57'
19
K. Cudars
⚽ 1' ⚽ 90'
10
M. Kalnins
18
E. Evelons
↓ 46'
Substitutes
20
K. Biscuhis
22
L. Estevez Fernandez
↑ 76'
14
R. Aditajs
28
D. Sedols
30
A. Doroshenko
↑ 57'
77
M. Marusii
🎯 77' ↑ 57'
11
M. Pacepko
99
F. Machado
⚽ 77' ↑ 76'
47
K. Johnson
↑ 46'
Last matches: Ogre United
27.07.26
Vir
Ogre United
Grobiņa
2
2
D
19.07.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
0
4
L
06.07.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
2
1
W
30.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
0
4
L
22.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
0
6
L
17.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
13.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Riga
1
4
L
30.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Auda
0
2
L
25.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
21.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
1
3
L
16.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
1
3
L
12.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
1
4
L
07.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
1
6
L
02.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
3
4
L
27.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
22.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Riga
0
4
L
17.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Auda
1
1
D
13.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
07.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
L
03.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
1
2
L
Last matches: Tukums
08.08.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
0
2
L
02.08.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
2
1
W
27.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
18.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
1
3
L
05.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
1
3
L
01.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
L
21.06.26
Vir
Tukums
FS Jelgava
1
4
L
17.06.26
Vir
Tukums
Auda
2
1
W
12.06.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
30.05.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
0
3
L
25.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
1
3
L
20.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
1
3
L
15.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
3
3
D
11.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
1
D
07.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Ogre United
6
1
W
01.05.26
Vir
Tukums
FS Jelgava
5
0
W
26.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Auda
1
2
L
21.04.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
17.04.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
2
2
D
13.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
H2H: Ogre United vs Tukums
26.06.26
H2H
Ogre United
Tukums
3
2
W
07.05.26
H2H
Tukums
Ogre United
6
1
L
15.03.26
H2H
Ogre United
Tukums
1
1
D
Last matches: Ogre United
19.07.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
0
4
L
13.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Riga
1
4
L
25.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
3
4
L
27.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
17.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Auda
1
1
D
13.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
03.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
1
2
L
20.03.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
0
1
L
15.03.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
1
1
D
H2H at home: Ogre United
26.06.26
H2H
Ogre United
Tukums
3
2
W
15.03.26
H2H
Ogre United
Tukums
1
1
D
Last matches: Tukums
08.08.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
0
2
L
18.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
1
3
L
05.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
1
3
L
21.06.26
Vir
Tukums
FS Jelgava
1
4
L
30.05.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
0
3
L
25.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
1
3
L
15.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
3
3
D
11.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
1
D
26.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Auda
1
2
L
09.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
3
3
D
15.03.26
Vir
Tukums
Ogre United
1
1
D
08.03.26
Vir
Tukums
FS Jelgava
1
2
L
11.02.26
Fri
Tukums
Kalju Nomme
2
2
D
31.01.26
Fri
Tukums
Panevėžys
1
2
L
H2H away: Tukums
26.06.26
H2H
Ogre United
Tukums
3
2
L
15.03.26
H2H
Ogre United
Tukums
1
1
D

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 20 2 2 56:16 40 62
W W D W W
2 24 19 4 1 72:20 52 61
W W W W D
3 23 13 4 6 38:26 12 43
W D L D W
4 26 10 6 10 33:31 2 36
W W L W W
5 24 9 4 11 31:36 -5 31
L W L W L
6 23 8 3 12 25:35 -10 27
W L W L L
7 25 6 7 12 25:43 -18 25
L L L L W
8 25 4 9 12 17:41 -24 21
L D L W L
9 26 4 8 14 40:51 -11 20
L W L L L
10 24 3 5 16 23:61 -38 14
D L W L W