LATVIA VIRSLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Referee: V. Mordatenko
Ogre United
Match Timeline
Riga
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
14'
F. Machado
Ogre United
17'
M. Badamosi
Riga
32'
R. Jurkovskis · Assist: M. Tonisevs
Riga
🔄
46'
F. Machado ↔ M. Pacepko
Ogre United
🔄
46'
M. Kalnins ↔ M. Ivulans
Ogre United
🔄
46'
K. Gulbis ↔ T. Marusiy
Ogre United
48'
M. Tonisevs · Assist: S. Oulad M'Hand
Riga
57'
E. Evelons · Assist: M. Pacepko
Ogre United
🟨
60'
M. Marusii
Ogre United
🔄
61'
R. Aditajs ↔ D. Sedols
Ogre United
65'
S. Oulad M'Hand · Assist: Juan Christian
Riga
🔄
66'
M. Badamosi ↔ A. Salazar
Riga
🔄
66'
R. Jurkovskis ↔ Reginaldo Ramires
Riga
🟨
70'
R. Aouani
Riga
🔄
72'
K. Cudars ↔ K. Hayashi
Ogre United
🔄
74'
Juan Christian ↔ Caio Ferreira
Riga
🔄
86'
R. Aouani ↔ B. Pena
Riga
🔄
86'
A. Ankrah ↔ Abner
Riga

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 81.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
81.5%
-
BTTS Yes
67.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ogre United Win 14.8%
Draw 3.7%
Riga Win 81.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ogre United0.94
Riga2.58
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ogre United Ogre United
WWDLW
14 GF / 41 GA
Riga Riga
WLDWL
64 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
0.78
Average Goals Scored
2.78
2.28
Average Goals Conceded
1.17
12
BTTS Yes
16
9
Over 2.5
20
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ogre United Ogre United 18 matches
Riga Riga 23 matches
Ogre United Statistic Riga
0 Wins 16
4 Draws 4
14 Losses 3
14 Goals For 64
41 Goals Against 27
0.78 Avg Goals Scored 2.78
2.28 Avg Goals Conceded 1.17
12 BTTS Yes 16
15 Over 1.5 22
9 Over 2.5 20
6 Over 3.5 13
0 Clean Sheets 7
6 Failed To Score 0
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Riga's more proactive style and Ogre United's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Riga. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Riga having the stronger overall control. Riga carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 39 points while Ogre United sit 10 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Ogre United Analysis

So far, Ogre United have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 4 points from 16 matches. Their overall return of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 12 losses with goals at 13:38 reflects poor form . Their attacking weight is carried by K. Cudars (5 goals), K. Johnson (2 goals), E. Evelons (1 goals), with creative support from K. Cudars (1 assists), M. Kalnins (1 assists), D. Vejkrigers (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the record of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Riga Analysis

Riga arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 39 points after 16 matches. The record of 12 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 50:17 goal balance, points toward poor form . Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Badamosi (11 goals), D. Lemajic (8 goals), S. Panic (7 goals), with creative support from R. Savalnieks (7 assists), Reginaldo Ramires (5 assists), A. Salazar (5 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Ogre United won 0 times, Riga won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:8 from Ogre United's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 4.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.3%)
Predicted formations: Ogre United - / Riga 4-3-2-1
H2H summary: Ogre United wins 0, draws 0, Riga wins 2

Lineups

Riga
Formation
Ogre United
F. Orols
F. Orols
M. Tonisevs
🎯
M. Tonisevs
K. Wassom
K. Wassom
Paulo Eduardo
Paulo Eduardo
R. Jurkovskis
R. Jurkovskis
A. Ankrah
A. Ankrah
M. Diop
M. Diop
R. Aouani
R. Aouani
S. Oulad M'Hand
🎯
S. Oulad M'Hand
Juan Christian
🎯
Juan Christian
M. Badamosi
M. Badamosi
N. Parfjonovs
N. Parfjonovs
M. Lormanis
M. Lormanis
K. Gulbis
K. Gulbis
M. Marusii
M. Marusii
D. Vejkrigers
D. Vejkrigers
M. Kalnins
M. Kalnins
T. Mickevics
T. Mickevics
K. Cudars
K. Cudars
R. Aditajs
R. Aditajs
E. Evelons
E. Evelons
F. Machado
F. Machado
Riga 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
91
F. Orols
23
M. Tonisevs
⚽ 48' 🎯 32'
5
K. Wassom
33
Paulo Eduardo
13
R. Jurkovskis
⚽ 32' ↓ 66'
40
A. Ankrah
↓ 86'
22
M. Diop
7
R. Aouani
↓ 86' 🟨 70'
18
S. Oulad M'Hand
⚽ 65' 🎯 48'
70
Juan Christian
🎯 65' ↓ 74'
19
M. Badamosi
⚽ 17' ↓ 66'
Substitutes
1
K. Zviedris
44
M. Kazainis
34
A. Cernomordijs
17
A. Salazar
↑ 66'
99
Caio Ferreira
↑ 74'
4
O. Galo
10
Reginaldo Ramires
↑ 66'
11
B. Pena
↑ 86'
3
Abner
↑ 86'
Ogre United 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
N. Parfjonovs
37
M. Lormanis
13
K. Gulbis
↓ 46'
77
M. Marusii
🟨 60'
6
D. Vejkrigers
10
M. Kalnins
↓ 46'
8
T. Mickevics
19
K. Cudars
↓ 72'
14
R. Aditajs
↓ 61'
18
E. Evelons
⚽ 57'
99
F. Machado
↓ 46' 🟨 14'
Substitutes
20
K. Biscuhis
28
D. Sedols
↑ 61'
7
K. Kumakura
5
K. Hayashi
↑ 72'
9
H. Silagailis
11
M. Pacepko
🎯 57' ↑ 46'
21
M. Ivulans
↑ 46'
3
T. Marusiy
↑ 46'
23
E. Sprukts
Last matches: Ogre United
06.07.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
2
1
W
30.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
0
4
L
26.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
3
2
W
22.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
0
6
L
17.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
30.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Auda
0
2
L
25.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
21.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
1
3
L
16.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
1
3
L
12.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
1
4
L
07.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
1
6
L
02.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
3
4
L
27.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
22.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Riga
0
4
L
17.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Auda
1
1
D
13.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
07.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
L
03.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
1
2
L
20.03.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
0
1
L
15.03.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
1
1
D
Last matches: Riga
07.07.26
UEF
Riga
Ararat-Armenia
0
2
L
03.07.26
Vir
Riga
FS Jelgava
3
0
W
29.06.26
Vir
Riga
Auda
2
0
W
25.06.26
Vir
Riga
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
21.06.26
Vir
Riga
FK Liepaja
4
0
W
17.06.26
Vir
Riga
Rīgas FS
2
1
W
29.05.26
Vir
Riga
Grobiņa
2
0
W
24.05.26
Vir
Riga
Super Nova
3
0
W
20.05.26
Vir
Riga
Tukums
3
1
W
16.05.26
Vir
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
2
D
12.05.26
Vir
Riga
Auda
4
1
W
08.05.26
Vir
Riga
BFC Daugavpils
3
1
W
03.05.26
Vir
Riga
FK Liepaja
1
0
W
28.04.26
Vir
Riga
Rīgas FS
3
3
D
22.04.26
Vir
Riga
Ogre United
4
0
W
18.04.26
Vir
Riga
Grobiņa
3
0
W
14.04.26
Vir
Riga
Super Nova
4
1
W
09.04.26
Vir
Riga
Tukums
3
3
D
04.04.26
Vir
Riga
FS Jelgava
8
0
W
27.03.26
Fri
Riga
Legia Warszawa
1
3
L
H2H: Ogre United vs Riga
13.06.26
H2H
Ogre United
Riga
1
4
L
22.04.26
H2H
Riga
Ogre United
4
0
L
Last matches: Ogre United
26.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
3
2
W
25.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
3
4
L
27.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
17.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Auda
1
1
D
13.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
03.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
1
2
L
20.03.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
0
1
L
15.03.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
1
1
D
H2H at home: Ogre United
13.06.26
H2H
Ogre United
Riga
1
4
L
Last matches: Riga
07.07.26
UEF
Riga
Ararat-Armenia
0
2
L
29.06.26
Vir
Riga
Auda
2
0
W
25.06.26
Vir
Riga
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
20.05.26
Vir
Riga
Tukums
3
1
W
08.05.26
Vir
Riga
BFC Daugavpils
3
1
W
28.04.26
Vir
Riga
Rīgas FS
3
3
D
18.04.26
Vir
Riga
Grobiņa
3
0
W
14.04.26
Vir
Riga
Super Nova
4
1
W
04.04.26
Vir
Riga
FS Jelgava
8
0
W
27.03.26
Fri
Riga
Legia Warszawa
1
3
L
20.03.26
Vir
Riga
Auda
2
1
W
07.03.26
Vir
Riga
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
24.02.26
Fri
Riga
Flora Tallinn
3
0
W
12.02.26
Fri
Riga
LNZ Cherkasy
3
1
W
05.02.26
Fri
Riga
Shakhtar Donetsk
1
2
L
17.01.26
Fri
Riga
Dubai United
2
1
W
21.08.25
UEF
Riga
Sparta Praha
0
2
L
14.08.25
UEF
Riga
Beitar Jerusalem
1
3
L
31.07.25
UEF
Riga
Dila
3
3
D
H2H away: Riga
13.06.26
H2H
Ogre United
Riga
1
4
W

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 18 2 2 54:16 38 56
D W W W L
2
Riga Away
22 17 4 1 65:19 46 55
W W D W W
3 22 12 4 6 37:26 11 40
D L D W L
4 22 8 4 10 28:34 -6 28
L W L L L
5 22 7 6 9 25:29 -4 27
W L D W D
6 22 6 7 9 24:38 -14 25
L W W W L
7 22 7 3 12 23:35 -12 24
L W L L D
8 22 4 8 10 15:33 -18 20
W L D L W
9 22 3 8 11 37:44 -7 17
L L L L W
10 22 3 4 15 21:55 -34 13
W L W L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - Nakotnes liga