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LATVIA › VIRSLIGA
11.10.2026 11:00
Referee: A. Griscenko
Ogre United
Match Timeline
BFC Daugavpils
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
3'
E. Ivanovs
BFC Daugavpils
⚽
23'
A. Traore · Assist: D. Kivinda
BFC Daugavpils
⚽
31'
J. Fokam
Ogre United
🟨
55'
A. Doroshenko
Ogre United
⚽
58'
A. Traore
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
63'
J. Fokam ↔ M. Pacepko
Ogre United
🔄
63'
A. Doroshenko ↔ T. Marusiy
Ogre United
🔄
66'
W. Mukwelle ↔ Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand
BFC Daugavpils
🟨
68'
R. Skrebels
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
74'
I. Pulis ↔ A. Marchuk
Ogre United
🟨
84'
A. Molotkovs
Ogre United
🔄
85'
A. Kudelkins ↔ R. Ziemelis
Ogre United
🔄
85'
D. Kivinda ↔ D. Ayebadiepreye
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
85'
L. Estevez Fernandez ↔ M. Ivulans
Ogre United

Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 74.5%
Odds 1.22
BTTS
No
Probability 55%
Odds 2.20
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 58.5%
Odds 2.39
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
74.5%
1.22 ▥
BTTS No
55%
2.20 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
58.5%
2.39 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.00 ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
9.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Ogre United Win 25.5%
Draw 22.4%
BFC Daugavpils Win 52.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ogre United1.08
BFC Daugavpils1.6
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ogre United Ogre United
WWDLW
31 GF / 79 GA
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils
WLDWL
42 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
0.94
Average Goals Scored
1.08
2.39
Average Goals Conceded
1.28
20
BTTS Yes
19
21
Over 2.5
16
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ogre United Ogre United 33 matches
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 39 matches
Ogre United Statistic BFC Daugavpils
4 Wins 12
6 Draws 9
23 Losses 18
31 Goals For 42
79 Goals Against 50
0.94 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
2.39 Avg Goals Conceded 1.28
20 BTTS Yes 19
28 Over 1.5 23
21 Over 2.5 16
15 Over 3.5 10
2 Clean Sheets 10
11 Failed To Score 14
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Ogre United have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward BFC Daugavpils having the stronger overall control. BFC Daugavpils carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 39 points while Ogre United sit 10 on 18, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring BFC Daugavpils.

Ogre United Analysis

Ogre United sit 10 with 18 points after 31 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 4 wins, 6 draws, and 21 defeats with a 30:76 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

BFC Daugavpils Analysis

BFC Daugavpils arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 39 points after 31 matches. The record of 10 wins, 9 draws, and 12 defeats, together with a 35:35 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses points toward a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Ogre United won 0 times, BFC Daugavpils won 4 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:12 from Ogre United's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3.75 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (77.6%)
Predicted formations: Ogre United - / BFC Daugavpils 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Ogre United wins 0, draws 0, BFC Daugavpils wins 4

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 24 5 2 75:24 51 77
W D W D W
2 32 23 7 2 88:30 58 76
W W W D D
3 32 19 7 6 52:32 20 64
W D W D W
4 32 12 7 13 43:46 -3 43
L D D D W
5 32 11 9 12 37:36 1 42
W D L D L
6 31 11 5 15 31:41 -10 38
W L L W W
7 32 8 8 16 34:53 -19 32
L L D L W
8 32 5 11 16 22:54 -32 26
L D D L W
9 32 5 9 18 44:63 -19 24
L D L W L
10 32 4 6 22 31:78 -47 18
L W L D L