KENYA SUPER LEAGUE
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 86.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 64.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
86.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
64.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nzoia Sugar Win 38.5%
Draw 13.1%
Naivas Win 48.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nzoia Sugar0.93
Naivas1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nzoia Sugar Nzoia Sugar
WWDLW
33 GF / 31 GA
Naivas Naivas
WLDWL
40 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.21
0.94
Average Goals Conceded
0.82
11
BTTS Yes
12
10
Over 2.5
12
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nzoia Sugar Nzoia Sugar 33 matches
Naivas Naivas 33 matches
Nzoia Sugar Statistic Naivas
10 Wins 14
14 Draws 9
9 Losses 10
33 Goals For 40
31 Goals Against 27
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
0.94 Avg Goals Conceded 0.82
11 BTTS Yes 12
18 Over 1.5 16
10 Over 2.5 12
8 Over 3.5 6
15 Clean Sheets 13
15 Failed To Score 13
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Naivas. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Naivas having the stronger overall control.

Nzoia Sugar Analysis

From their first 33 matches, Nzoia Sugar have collected 44 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. The record of 10 wins, 14 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 33:31 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Naivas Analysis

Naivas sit 7 with 51 points after 33 league matches. The record of 14 wins, 9 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 40:27 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Nzoia Sugar won 2 times, Naivas won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:4 from Nzoia Sugar's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.75 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.9%)
H2H summary: Nzoia Sugar wins 2, draws 0, Naivas wins 2
Last matches: Nzoia Sugar
01.06.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Fortune Sacco
3
1
W
27.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Talanta
0
2
L
17.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MCF
0
1
L
09.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Luanda Villa
3
3
D
03.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kabati Youth FC
1
1
D
26.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Migori Youth
0
4
L
19.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Darajani Gogo
2
0
W
12.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Soy United
1
0
W
04.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MOFA
0
2
L
29.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
3K
1
3
L
21.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Mwatate United
3
1
W
14.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Equity Bank
0
1
L
08.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kisumu All Stars
1
0
W
01.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Nairobi City Stars
0
0
D
20.02.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Vihiga United FC
4
0
W
15.02.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Gucha Stars
0
2
L
31.01.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Equity Bank
0
1
L
25.01.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MOFA
1
1
D
18.01.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Soy United
0
2
L
12.01.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Darajani Gogo
4
1
W
Last matches: Naivas
01.06.26
Sup
Naivas
Vihiga United FC
2
0
W
28.05.26
Sup
Naivas
Mwatate United
2
0
W
16.05.26
Sup
Naivas
Darajani Gogo
3
0
W
09.05.26
Sup
Naivas
Gucha Stars
0
0
D
01.05.26
Sup
Naivas
Kisumu All Stars
4
0
W
25.04.26
Sup
Naivas
Talanta
4
1
W
18.04.26
Sup
Naivas
3K
1
2
L
12.04.26
Sup
Naivas
Migori Youth
0
1
L
03.04.26
Sup
Naivas
Kibera Black Stars
2
1
W
28.03.26
Sup
Naivas
Fortune Sacco
3
3
D
21.03.26
Sup
Naivas
MCF
1
0
W
14.03.26
Sup
Naivas
Nairobi City Stars
3
1
W
07.03.26
Sup
Naivas
MOFA
0
1
L
28.02.26
Sup
Naivas
Luanda Villa
3
0
W
22.02.26
Sup
Naivas
Soy United
1
0
W
14.02.26
Sup
Naivas
Equity Bank
1
1
D
31.01.26
Sup
Naivas
Nairobi City Stars
0
0
D
24.01.26
Sup
Naivas
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
17.01.26
Sup
Naivas
Migori Youth
2
4
L
11.01.26
Sup
Naivas
3K
2
1
W
H2H: Nzoia Sugar vs Naivas
24.05.26
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Naivas
0
1
L
07.12.25
H2H
Naivas
Nzoia Sugar
0
1
W
08.03.25
H2H
Naivas
Nzoia Sugar
3
1
L
23.11.24
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Naivas
1
0
W
Last matches: Nzoia Sugar
01.06.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Fortune Sacco
3
1
W
09.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Luanda Villa
3
3
D
19.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Darajani Gogo
2
0
W
04.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MOFA
0
2
L
21.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Mwatate United
3
1
W
14.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Equity Bank
0
1
L
01.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Nairobi City Stars
0
0
D
15.02.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Gucha Stars
0
2
L
18.01.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Soy United
0
2
L
22.12.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Migori Youth
1
0
W
12.12.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kabati Youth FC
0
0
D
03.12.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MCF
0
0
D
23.11.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kisumu All Stars
2
0
W
09.11.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Vihiga United FC
0
0
D
02.11.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Mombasa Elite
2
2
D
26.10.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Talanta
0
0
D
28.09.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
3K
2
1
W
H2H at home: Nzoia Sugar
24.05.26
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Naivas
0
1
L
23.11.24
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Naivas
1
0
W
Last matches: Naivas
28.05.26
Sup
Naivas
Mwatate United
2
0
W
09.05.26
Sup
Naivas
Gucha Stars
0
0
D
25.04.26
Sup
Naivas
Talanta
4
1
W
12.04.26
Sup
Naivas
Migori Youth
0
1
L
21.03.26
Sup
Naivas
MCF
1
0
W
07.03.26
Sup
Naivas
MOFA
0
1
L
22.02.26
Sup
Naivas
Soy United
1
0
W
31.01.26
Sup
Naivas
Nairobi City Stars
0
0
D
24.01.26
Sup
Naivas
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
11.01.26
Sup
Naivas
3K
2
1
W
12.12.25
Sup
Naivas
Kisumu All Stars
0
1
L
03.12.25
Sup
Naivas
Darajani Gogo
0
1
L
30.11.25
Sup
Naivas
Luanda Villa
0
2
L
15.11.25
Sup
Naivas
Equity Bank
0
0
D
29.10.25
Sup
Naivas
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
11.10.25
Sup
Naivas
Vihiga United FC
0
0
D
28.09.25
Sup
Naivas
Fortune Sacco
1
0
W
H2H away: Naivas
24.05.26
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Naivas
0
1
W
23.11.24
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Naivas
1
0
L

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 36 24 5 7 54:27 27 77
W W W L W
2 36 22 7 7 58:25 33 73
W D D W W
3 36 23 3 10 49:31 18 72
L D W W L
4 36 20 11 5 53:26 27 71
W W D D W
5 36 16 14 6 50:29 21 62
D D L W L
6 36 17 9 10 45:27 18 60
W W W W D
7 36 16 9 11 57:41 16 57
L L L W L
8 36 15 9 12 46:37 9 54
L W W W W
9 36 15 8 13 31:30 1 53
D D L L D
10 36 13 9 14 30:27 3 48
L D W L D
11 36 11 14 11 36:35 1 47
W L L L D
12 36 12 6 18 29:49 -20 42
W L L W D
13 36 11 8 17 32:38 -6 41
W L W L D
14 36 9 12 15 31:36 -5 39
L D D L L
15 36 9 9 18 21:45 -24 36
L D W D D
16 36 9 8 19 29:50 -21 35
W W L L D
17 36 8 8 20 22:47 -25 32
L D W L L
18 36 8 10 18 22:38 -16 31
W L D W L
19 36 9 8 19 28:53 -25 29
L W L W W
20 36 6 7 23 27:59 -32 25
L L L L D