BRAZIL SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi
Referee: L. Torezin
Novorizontino
Match Timeline
Vila Nova
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
6'
Luis Oyama · Assist: Robson
Novorizontino
VAR
31'
André Luís
Vila Nova
41'
Nathan Camargo · Assist: Joao Vieira
Vila Nova
🟨
45+4'
Gabriel Bahia
Novorizontino
🟨
45+2'
Ryan Lima
Vila Nova
🔄
59'
Reidiney ↔ Juninho
Novorizontino
🔄
60'
Dodo ↔ Dudu
Vila Nova
🔄
60'
Willian Maranhao ↔ Marquinhos Gabriel
Vila Nova
🟨
63'
Nathan Camargo
Vila Nova
🟨
67'
Dudu Dos Santos
Vila Nova
🔄
70'
Nathan Camargo ↔ Hayner
Vila Nova
🔄
70'
Andre Luis ↔ Dellatorre
Vila Nova
🔄
75'
Leo Naldi ↔ Tavinho
Novorizontino
🔄
75'
Vinicius Paiva ↔ Carlao
Novorizontino
🟨
86'
Dudu Dos Santos
Vila Nova
🟥
86'
Dudu Dos Santos
Vila Nova
🔄
88'
Romulo ↔ C. Ortiz
Novorizontino
🔄
88'
Robson ↔ Helio Borges
Novorizontino
🔄
88'
Ryan ↔ Willian Formiga
Vila Nova
90'
Juninho
Novorizontino

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54.4%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Novorizontino Win 54.4%
Draw 4.7%
Vila Nova Win 40.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Novorizontino1.37
Vila Nova1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Novorizontino Novorizontino
WWDLW
22 GF / 13 GA
Vila Nova Vila Nova
WLDWL
22 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1.57
Average Goals Scored
1.57
0.93
Average Goals Conceded
1.07
7
BTTS Yes
8
7
Over 2.5
6
4.71
Shots on Goal
3.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Novorizontino Novorizontino 14 matches
Vila Nova Vila Nova 14 matches
Novorizontino Statistic Vila Nova
6 Wins 8
6 Draws 4
2 Losses 2
22 Goals For 22
13 Goals Against 15
1.57 Avg Goals Scored 1.57
0.93 Avg Goals Conceded 1.07
7 BTTS Yes 8
10 Over 1.5 9
7 Over 2.5 6
4 Over 3.5 3
6 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 2
4.71 Shots On Goal 3.86
13.79 Total Shots 13.21
5.21 Corners 4.64
47.9% Ball Possession 52.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Vila Nova. Vila Nova look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Novorizontino Analysis

Placed 5 with 21 points from 13 outings, Novorizontino continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 20:13 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Robson (6 goals), Romulo (3 goals), Carlao (2 goals), with creative support from Romulo (6 assists), Juninho (3 assists), Robson (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Vila Nova Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 25 points from 13 games, Vila Nova bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 7 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 18:12, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by Rafael Silva (3 goals), Ryan (3 goals), André Luís (2 goals), with creative support from Janderson (4 assists), Marquinhos Gabriel (4 assists), Ryan (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Novorizontino won 4 times, Vila Nova won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:8 from Novorizontino's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.22 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.3%)
Predicted formations: Novorizontino 4-2-3-1 / Vila Nova 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Novorizontino wins 4, draws 3, Vila Nova wins 2

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 13 6 5 26:13 13 45
W W D W W
2 25 13 5 7 37:25 12 44
W D W W L
3 25 12 8 5 26:19 7 44
L L D W L
4 25 12 7 6 41:22 19 43
W W W D L
5 25 11 8 6 28:22 6 41
D W D D D
6 25 11 6 8 37:35 2 39
W L W D W
7 25 10 9 6 28:23 5 39
W W D L D
8 25 9 11 5 33:24 9 38
L W L W W
9 25 10 7 8 31:32 -1 37
D D L L L
10 25 10 6 9 25:30 -5 36
W D L L W
11 25 8 12 5 23:19 4 36
W D W W D
12 25 9 7 9 30:28 2 34
W D W D D
13 25 8 10 7 26:27 -1 34
L L L W W
14 25 8 8 9 34:29 5 32
L D D L W
15 25 8 7 10 29:28 1 31
L L D W W
16 25 8 5 12 27:31 -4 29
L W W W L
17 25 7 7 11 25:32 -7 28
L W L L W
18 24 5 6 13 29:36 -7 21
L D L L L
19 25 3 5 17 18:42 -24 14
W L L L L
20 25 2 4 19 16:52 -36 10
L L L D L
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