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13.09.2026 21:30
Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi
Referee: Braulio Da Silva Machado, Brazil
Novorizontino
Match Timeline
Cuiaba
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
20'
Vitor Mendes · Assist: Igor Inocencio
Cuiaba
🟨
36'
Raul
Cuiaba
⚽
37'
Romulo
Novorizontino
🔄
57'
David Miguel ↔ Luiz Otavio
Cuiaba
🔄
57'
Kauan Cristtyan ↔ Eliel
Cuiaba
🔄
60'
Diego Galo ↔ Matheus Bianqui
Novorizontino
🔄
60'
Leo Naldi ↔ Juninho
Novorizontino
🔄
69'
Jean Dias ↔ Ramon
Cuiaba
🔄
75'
Luis Soares ↔ Wesley Dias
Cuiaba
🔄
75'
Fabio Gomes ↔ Vinicius Peixoto
Cuiaba
🔄
79'
Reidiney ↔ Ronald Barcellos
Novorizontino
🟨
88'
Luiz Otavio
Cuiaba
🟨
90+3'
João Basso
Cuiaba
🔄
90'
Romulo ↔ Tavinho
Novorizontino
🔄
90'
Robson ↔ Carlao
Novorizontino

Novorizontino vs Cuiaba Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Novorizontino Win 57.3%
Draw 13.5%
Cuiaba Win 29.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Novorizontino1.36
Cuiaba0.93
Recent Form (Last 5)
Novorizontino Novorizontino
W W W W W
15 GF / 4 GA
Cuiaba Cuiaba
W L W D W
7 GF / 4 GA
Key Stats
1.74
Average Goals Scored
0.96
0.89
Average Goals Conceded
0.78
14
BTTS Yes
10
16
Over 2.5
6
5.3
Shots on Goal
4.11

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Novorizontino Novorizontino 27 matches
Cuiaba Cuiaba 27 matches
Novorizontino Statistic Cuiaba
14 Wins 9
7 Draws 12
6 Losses 6
47 Goals For 26
24 Goals Against 21
1.74 Avg Goals Scored 0.96
0.89 Avg Goals Conceded 0.78
14 BTTS Yes 10
19 Over 1.5 16
16 Over 2.5 6
8 Over 3.5 3
9 Clean Sheets 11
7 Failed To Score 11
5.3 Shots On Goal 4.11
15.07 Total Shots 13
6.15 Corners 4.96
47.6% Ball Possession 47.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Cuiaba. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Novorizontino expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Cuiaba in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cuiaba having the stronger overall control. Novorizontino come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Novorizontino arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 46 points compared to Cuiaba in 13 on 36, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Novorizontino Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 46 points from 26 games, Novorizontino bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 13 wins, 7 draws, and 6 defeats plus a goal balance of 44:23, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by Robson (8 goals), Romulo (5 goals), Matheus Bianqui (3 goals), with creative support from Romulo (7 assists), Robson (4 assists), Juninho (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Cuiaba Analysis

Cuiaba sit 13 with 36 points after 26 league matches. The record of 8 wins, 12 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 23:21 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through João Basso (2 goals), Kauan (2 goals), Hernandes (2 goals), with creative support from Pepê (3 assists), Rodrigo Farofa (2 assists), Eliel (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Novorizontino won 2 times, Cuiaba won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:0 from Novorizontino's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.6%)
Predicted formations: Novorizontino 4-2-3-1 / Cuiaba 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Novorizontino wins 2, draws 1, Cuiaba wins 0

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 37 20 10 7 66:32 34 70
W W W D W
2 37 19 11 7 49:26 23 68
W D W D D
3 37 19 9 9 53:38 15 66
W D L D W
4 37 18 8 11 38:31 7 62
L W L W W
5 37 16 14 7 44:33 11 62
L D D W D
6 37 17 7 13 57:51 6 58
W L W L D
7 37 17 7 13 39:41 -2 58
W W W D W
8 37 15 13 9 45:35 10 58
W D L D D
9 37 14 13 10 50:42 8 55
L D W L D
10 37 15 9 13 49:50 -1 54
W L W L L
11 37 14 10 13 52:42 10 52
L W W L D
12 37 14 9 14 45:39 6 51
W D W W W
13 37 11 14 12 34:32 2 47
L L L L L
14 37 11 14 12 44:44 0 47
L W L D D
15 37 12 10 15 40:49 -9 46
L W L D L
16 37 11 10 16 38:47 -9 43
L L L D L
17 37 11 7 19 35:47 -12 40
W L L D W
18 37 8 8 21 45:58 -13 32
L L L W D
19 37 8 5 24 27:55 -28 29
W W W W L
20 37 3 6 28 21:79 -58 15
L L D D L
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