BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Janio Moraes
Nova Iguaçu
Match Timeline
Noroeste
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
39'
Lucas Cruz
Nova Iguaçu

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 55.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 68.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
75.1%
-
BTTS BTTS No
55.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
68.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nova Iguaçu Win 33.6%
Draw 24.9%
Noroeste Win 41.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nova Iguaçu0.71
Noroeste1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nova Iguaçu Nova Iguaçu
WWDLW
5 GF / 9 GA
Noroeste Noroeste
WLDWL
10 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
0.71
Average Goals Scored
1.43
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
0.71
4
BTTS Yes
2
2
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nova Iguaçu Nova Iguaçu 7 matches
Noroeste Noroeste 7 matches
Nova Iguaçu Statistic Noroeste
1 Wins 3
3 Draws 2
3 Losses 2
5 Goals For 10
9 Goals Against 5
0.71 Avg Goals Scored 1.43
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 0.71
4 BTTS Yes 2
4 Over 1.5 4
2 Over 2.5 3
1 Over 3.5 1
1 Clean Sheets 3
3 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Noroeste's more proactive style and Nova Iguaçu's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Noroeste. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Noroeste having the stronger overall control. Noroeste carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 11 points while Nova Iguaçu sit 6 on 6, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Nova Iguaçu Analysis

So far, Nova Iguaçu have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 6 points from 7 matches. Their overall return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 5:9 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Xandinho (2 goals), Augusto (1 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Noroeste Analysis

Noroeste come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 11 points after 7 matches. They have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with a 10:5 goal return and good form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Marlyson (4 goals), Joao Bravo (2 goals), Pedro Carrerette (2 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Nova Iguaçu won 1 times, Noroeste won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:1 from Nova Iguaçu's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (75.1%)
H2H summary: Nova Iguaçu wins 1, draws 1, Noroeste wins 0
Last matches: Nova Iguaçu
07.06.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
XV de Piracicaba
1
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
CFRJ / Maricá
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Velo Clube
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Velo Clube
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Noroeste
1
1
D
12.04.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
CFRJ / Maricá
0
1
L
04.04.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
XV de Piracicaba
1
4
L
26.07.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Porto Vitória
1
1
D
19.07.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Água Santa
1
2
L
12.07.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
CFRJ / Maricá
1
3
L
05.07.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Pouso Alegre
2
1
W
28.06.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Boavista SC
1
1
D
14.06.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Rio Branco ES
0
0
D
07.06.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Portuguesa
0
1
L
31.05.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Portuguesa
1
1
D
24.05.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Rio Branco ES
1
0
W
17.05.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Boavista SC
2
1
W
10.05.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Pouso Alegre
0
1
L
Last matches: Noroeste
28.06.26
Ser
Noroeste
Portuguesa RJ
1
3
L
21.06.26
Ser
Noroeste
Portuguesa RJ
1
1
D
07.06.26
Ser
Noroeste
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
Velo Clube
3
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
CFRJ / Maricá
3
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
CFRJ / Maricá
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
Velo Clube
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
Nova Iguaçu
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
XV de Piracicaba
2
2
D
04.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
0
1
L
H2H: Nova Iguaçu vs Noroeste
23.05.26
H2H
Nova Iguaçu
Noroeste
1
0
W
18.04.26
H2H
Noroeste
Nova Iguaçu
1
1
D
Last matches: Nova Iguaçu
07.06.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
XV de Piracicaba
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
2
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Velo Clube
0
0
D
12.04.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
CFRJ / Maricá
0
1
L
26.07.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Porto Vitória
1
1
D
12.07.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
CFRJ / Maricá
1
3
L
05.07.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Pouso Alegre
2
1
W
14.06.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Rio Branco ES
0
0
D
31.05.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Portuguesa
1
1
D
17.05.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Boavista SC
2
1
W
26.04.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Água Santa
1
2
L
H2H at home: Nova Iguaçu
23.05.26
H2H
Nova Iguaçu
Noroeste
1
0
W
Last matches: Noroeste
21.06.26
Ser
Noroeste
Portuguesa RJ
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
CFRJ / Maricá
3
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
Velo Clube
0
1
L
04.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
0
1
L
H2H away: Noroeste
23.05.26
H2H
Nova Iguaçu
Noroeste
1
0
L

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)