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10.10.2026 11:30
Meadow Lane
Referee: Carl Brook
Notts County
Match Timeline
Oxford United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
7'
Rod McDonald
Notts County
⚽
18'
M. Harris
Oxford United
🟨
23'
Oliver Cooper
Notts County
🟨
44'
Louie Sibley
Oxford United
🔄
46'
M. Palmer ↔ M. H. Sanders
Notts County
🔄
46'
J. Gibbons ↔ N. Tsaroulla
Notts County
🔄
46'
O. Cooper ↔ R. Finneran
Notts County
🟨
47'
Max Sanders
Notts County
🟨
58'
Jacob Bedeau
Notts County
🔄
58'
L. Sibley ↔ K. Andrews
Oxford United
🔄
65'
C. Grant ↔ L. Smyth
Notts County
🔄
66'
T. Goodrham ↔ G. O'Donkor
Oxford United
🔄
66'
M. Missanga ↔ L. Snowden
Oxford United
🟨
70'
Rory Finneran
Notts County
🔄
76'
J. Currie ↔ B. Spencer
Oxford United
🔄
76'
S. Dembele ↔ L. Lynch
Oxford United
🟨
77'
Lucas Ness
Notts County
🟨
82'
Peter Kioso
Oxford United
🟨
87'
Michał Helik
Oxford United
⚽
88'
C. Brannagan · Assist: L. Lynch
Oxford United
⚽
90'
R. Finneran · Assist: N. Tsaroulla
Notts County

Notts County vs Oxford United Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 66%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
66%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
85.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Notts County Win 30.1%
Draw 3.9%
Oxford United Win 66%
Expected Goals (xG)
Notts County1.05
Oxford United1.91
Recent Form (Last 5)
Notts County Notts County
L L D D W
4 GF / 6 GA
Oxford United Oxford United
D W W L W
11 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
2.3
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1
6
BTTS Yes
7
4
Over 2.5
8
3.29
Shots on Goal
4.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Notts County Notts County 12 matches
Oxford United Oxford United 10 matches
Notts County Statistic Oxford United
2 Wins 7
5 Draws 2
5 Losses 1
13 Goals For 23
16 Goals Against 10
1.08 Avg Goals Scored 2.3
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1
6 BTTS Yes 7
10 Over 1.5 10
4 Over 2.5 8
3 Over 3.5 5
2 Clean Sheets 3
5 Failed To Score 0
3.29 Shots On Goal 4.5
12.29 Total Shots 11.17
4.43 Corners 4.33
45.1% Ball Possession 58%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Oxford United's more proactive style and Notts County's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Oxford United carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 10 with 11 points while Notts County sit 20 on 7, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Oxford United having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Oxford United.

Notts County Analysis

With 7 points from 7 games and a place of 20, Notts County still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, together with goals at 7:9, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through O. Cooper (2 goals), L. Smyth (2 goals), C. Roberts (1 goals), with creative support from N. Tsaroulla (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Oxford United Analysis

Oxford United are currently 10 in the standings with 11 points from 6 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, while the 13:7 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on S. Dembélé (2 goals), M. Harris (2 goals), G. O'Donkor (2 goals), with creative support from Kai Andrews (2 assists), S. Dembélé (1 assists), M. Harris (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Notts County won 0 times, Oxford United won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:7 from Notts County's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.1%)
Predicted formations: Notts County 3-4-2-1 / Oxford United 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Notts County wins 0, draws 0, Oxford United wins 2

Standings

League One
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 12 7 4 1 24:11 13 25
W W W D W
2 13 7 2 4 24:13 11 23
L D W W W
3 11 6 4 1 19:10 9 22
W D W D W
4 12 6 4 2 10:5 5 22
D D W D D
5 13 7 1 5 21:19 2 22
W L L W W
6 12 6 3 3 25:13 12 21
W W L W D
7 13 5 6 2 21:18 3 21
D L D W W
8 12 6 2 4 24:20 4 20
W W W L W
9 12 5 4 3 21:13 8 19
D L L W D
10 11 5 3 3 20:16 4 18
W W D W D
11 12 5 3 4 20:17 3 18
W L W W L
12 13 4 5 4 18:19 -1 17
W D D L L
13 11 4 3 4 15:11 4 15
L W L W L
14 12 3 6 3 16:19 -3 15
W W L W L
15 12 3 6 3 19:23 -4 15
D D W L D
16 12 4 2 6 16:14 2 14
L L W D L
17 12 3 4 5 8:19 -11 13
D L L L D
18 12 3 3 6 13:16 -3 12
L W L L W
19 11 2 5 4 11:14 -3 11
D W L L L
20 11 3 2 6 16:20 -4 11
L W L L L
21 12 2 4 6 11:21 -10 10
D L D W L
22 12 2 3 7 11:30 -19 9
L D L L L
23 11 2 2 7 11:21 -10 8
L L L L D
24 12 2 1 9 8:20 -12 7
L L L W L
Promotion - Championship
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two