ENGLAND LEAGUE TWO
--.--.---- --:--
Meadow Lane
Referee: R. Joyce
Notts County
Match Timeline
Bristol Rovers
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
10'
Nick Tsaroulla
Notts County
🟨
20'
Shaqai Forde
Bristol Rovers
27'
N. Tsaroulla
Notts County
🔄
46'
P. Omochere ↔ T. Leigh
Bristol Rovers
🔄
46'
R. De Havilland ↔ Y. Akhamrich
Bristol Rovers
55'
E. Harrison · Assist: T. Leigh
Bristol Rovers
🔄
58'
O. Norburn ↔ M. Palmer
Notts County
🔄
59'
J. Luker ↔ S. Robertson
Notts County
🔄
59'
C. Grant ↔ T. Hall
Notts County
🟨
65'
Clinton Mola
Bristol Rovers
🟨
71'
Alassana Jatta
Notts County
🔄
72'
C. Mola ↔ R. Howley
Bristol Rovers
🔄
73'
A. Jatta ↔ M. Dennis
Notts County
🔄
73'
J. Jones ↔ L. Ndlovu
Notts County
🟨
75'
Matt Palmer
Notts County
🟨
77'
Yusuf Akhamrich
Bristol Rovers
🔄
79'
E. Harrison ↔ J. Quigley
Bristol Rovers
🔄
79'
S. Forde ↔ F. Cavegn
Bristol Rovers

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 100%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
100%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
74.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
68.2%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Notts County Win 50.8%
Draw 0%
Bristol Rovers Win 49.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Notts County1.54
Bristol Rovers1.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
Notts County Notts County
WWDLW
75 GF / 53 GA
Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers
WLDWL
57 GF / 66 GA
Key Stats
1.63
Average Goals Scored
1.21
1.15
Average Goals Conceded
1.4
26
BTTS Yes
21
27
Over 2.5
25
4.46
Shots on Goal
3.15

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Notts County Notts County 46 matches
Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 47 matches
Notts County Statistic Bristol Rovers
24 Wins 20
8 Draws 4
14 Losses 23
75 Goals For 57
53 Goals Against 66
1.63 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
1.15 Avg Goals Conceded 1.4
26 BTTS Yes 21
35 Over 1.5 33
27 Over 2.5 25
14 Over 3.5 14
13 Clean Sheets 11
8 Failed To Score 16
4.46 Shots On Goal 3.15
11.35 Total Shots 11.09
4.85 Corners 4.54
55.3% Ball Possession 49.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Notts County's more proactive style and Bristol Rovers's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Notts County arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 79 points compared to Bristol Rovers in 14 on 61, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Bristol Rovers. Bristol Rovers look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Bristol Rovers having the stronger overall control.

Notts County Analysis

Notts County approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 5 with 79 points from 45 matches. Their record of 24 wins, 7 draws, and 14 losses, together with goals at 73:51, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through M. Dennis (15 goals), A. Jatta (14 goals), J. Jones (8 goals), with creative support from Tom Iorpenda (6 assists), N. Tsaroulla (5 assists), J. Jones (4 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 13 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

Bristol Rovers Analysis

Bristol Rovers sit 14 with 61 points after 45 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 19 wins, 4 draws, and 22 defeats, and the 55:64 goal record continues to suggest very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking burden often falls on I. Hutchinson (16 goals), E. Harrison (10 goals), F. Cavegn (10 goals), with creative support from I. Hutchinson (4 assists), Shaqai Forde (4 assists), A. Kilgour (4 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 7 wins, 3 draws, and 12 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Notts County won 2 times, Bristol Rovers won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:5 from Notts County's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Notts County 4-3-1-2 / Bristol Rovers 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: Notts County wins 2, draws 2, Bristol Rovers wins 1
Stats
Notts County Notts County
Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
2
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
6
Blocked Shots
5
5 Corner Kicks 3
11 Fouls 18
3 Offsides 0
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Goal 4
2 Shots off Goal 3
6 Blocked Shots 5
8 Shots insidebox 10
6 Shots outsidebox 2
3 Goalkeeper Saves 4
474 Total passes 317
392 Passes accurate 227
1.53 expected_goals 1.53
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Bristol Rovers
Formation
Notts County
B. Young
B. Young
J. Senior
J. Senior
K. Balmer
K. Balmer
R. Harbottle
R. Harbottle
C. Mola
C. Mola
R. De Havilland
R. De Havilland
R. Smallwood
R. Smallwood
J. Sparkes
J. Sparkes
S. Forde
S. Forde
E. Harrison
E. Harrison
P. Omochere
P. Omochere
J. Belshaw
J. Belshaw
L. Ness
L. Ness
R. McDonald
R. McDonald
J. Bedeau
J. Bedeau
N. Tsaroulla
N. Tsaroulla
O. Norburn
O. Norburn
T. Iorpenda
T. Iorpenda
J. Jones
J. Jones
J. Luker
J. Luker
C. Grant
C. Grant
A. Jatta
A. Jatta
Bristol Rovers 4-3-1-2
Starting XI
13
B. Young
G
2
J. Senior
D
17
K. Balmer
D
26
R. Harbottle
D
6
C. Mola
↓ 72' 🟨 65'
D
15
R. De Havilland
↓ 46'
M
36
R. Smallwood
M
3
J. Sparkes
M
7
S. Forde
↓ 79' 🟨 20'
M
19
E. Harrison
⚽ 55' ↓ 79'
F
9
P. Omochere
↓ 46'
F
Substitutes
1
L. Southwood
G
24
T. Leigh
🎯 55' ↑ 46'
M
35
M. Rijks
F
25
R. Howley
↑ 72'
M
10
Y. Akhamrich
↑ 46' 🟨 77'
F
27
J. Quigley
↑ 79'
F
29
F. Cavegn
↑ 79'
F
Notts County 3-4-3 (estimated)
Starting XI
31
J. Belshaw
G
12
L. Ness
D
3
R. McDonald
D
4
J. Bedeau
D
25
N. Tsaroulla
⚽ 27' 🟨 10'
M
8
O. Norburn
↓ 58'
M
14
T. Iorpenda
M
10
J. Jones
↓ 73'
M
16
J. Luker
↓ 59'
F
11
C. Grant
↓ 59'
F
29
A. Jatta
↓ 73' 🟨 71'
F
Substitutes
21
H. Griffiths
G
18
M. Palmer
↑ 58' 🟨 75'
M
17
Q. Kouhyar
M
19
M. Dennis
↑ 73'
F
39
L. Ndlovu
↑ 73'
F
20
S. Robertson
↑ 59'
M
26
T. Hall
↑ 59'
M
Last matches: Notts County
25.05.26
Lea
Notts County
Salford City
3
0
W
15.05.26
Lea
Notts County
Chesterfield
0
0
D
10.05.26
Lea
Notts County
Chesterfield
1
0
W
25.04.26
Lea
Notts County
Colchester
1
0
W
18.04.26
Lea
Notts County
Barnet
1
2
L
11.04.26
Lea
Notts County
Cambridge United
0
4
L
06.04.26
Lea
Notts County
Newport County
3
1
W
03.04.26
Lea
Notts County
Salford City
1
2
L
28.03.26
Lea
Notts County
Harrogate Town
2
0
W
24.03.26
Lea
Notts County
Oldham
0
3
L
21.03.26
Lea
Notts County
Cheltenham
5
2
W
17.03.26
Lea
Notts County
Accrington ST
4
0
W
14.03.26
Lea
Notts County
Chesterfield
2
3
L
07.03.26
Lea
Notts County
Walsall
2
1
W
28.02.26
Lea
Notts County
Grimsby
0
1
L
21.02.26
Lea
Notts County
Tranmere
5
0
W
17.02.26
Lea
Notts County
Shrewsbury
0
1
L
14.02.26
Lea
Notts County
Bromley
1
1
D
07.02.26
Lea
Notts County
Barrow
2
1
W
03.02.26
Lea
Notts County
Gillingham
1
0
W
Last matches: Bristol Rovers
25.04.26
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Cheltenham
4
0
W
18.04.26
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Tranmere
2
1
W
11.04.26
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Crawley Town
3
1
W
06.04.26
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Harrogate Town
3
2
W
03.04.26
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Fleetwood Town
1
0
W
28.03.26
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Accrington ST
2
0
W
21.03.26
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Gillingham
2
1
W
17.03.26
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Shrewsbury
1
0
W
14.03.26
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Bromley
0
1
L
10.03.26
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Barrow
2
0
W
07.03.26
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Crewe
2
1
W
28.02.26
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Swindon Town
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Grimsby
3
1
W
17.02.26
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Oldham
0
2
L
14.02.26
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Cambridge United
1
3
L
07.02.26
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Chesterfield
2
3
L
03.02.26
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Walsall
2
0
W
31.01.26
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Newport County
3
0
W
27.01.26
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Milton Keynes Dons
0
1
L
24.01.26
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Salford City
0
1
L
H2H: Notts County vs Bristol Rovers
02.05.26
H2H
Notts County
Bristol Rovers
1
1
D
29.11.25
H2H
Bristol Rovers
Notts County
0
1
W
03.11.17
H2H
Notts County
Bristol Rovers
4
2
W
05.03.16
H2H
Notts County
Bristol Rovers
0
2
L
20.10.15
H2H
Bristol Rovers
Notts County
0
0
D
Last matches: Notts County
25.05.26
Lea
Notts County
Salford City
3
0
W
15.05.26
Lea
Notts County
Chesterfield
0
0
D
18.04.26
Lea
Notts County
Barnet
1
2
L
06.04.26
Lea
Notts County
Newport County
3
1
W
21.03.26
Lea
Notts County
Cheltenham
5
2
W
14.03.26
Lea
Notts County
Chesterfield
2
3
L
28.02.26
Lea
Notts County
Grimsby
0
1
L
21.02.26
Lea
Notts County
Tranmere
5
0
W
07.02.26
Lea
Notts County
Barrow
2
1
W
03.02.26
Lea
Notts County
Gillingham
1
0
W
27.01.26
Lea
Notts County
Swindon Town
2
1
W
24.01.26
Lea
Notts County
Crewe
1
0
W
01.01.26
Lea
Notts County
Accrington ST
0
1
L
20.12.25
Lea
Notts County
Walsall
0
0
D
09.12.25
Lea
Notts County
Milton Keynes Dons
3
2
W
22.11.25
Lea
Notts County
Colchester
1
3
L
15.11.25
Lea
Notts County
Harrogate Town
1
1
D
25.10.25
Lea
Notts County
Cambridge United
2
0
W
04.10.25
Lea
Notts County
Oldham
3
1
W
20.09.25
Lea
Notts County
Crawley Town
4
0
W
H2H at home: Notts County
02.05.26
H2H
Notts County
Bristol Rovers
1
1
D
03.11.17
H2H
Notts County
Bristol Rovers
4
2
W
05.03.16
H2H
Notts County
Bristol Rovers
0
2
L
Last matches: Bristol Rovers
18.04.26
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Tranmere
2
1
W
06.04.26
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Harrogate Town
3
2
W
21.03.26
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Gillingham
2
1
W
14.03.26
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Bromley
0
1
L
10.03.26
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Barrow
2
0
W
28.02.26
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Swindon Town
1
1
D
17.02.26
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Oldham
0
2
L
14.02.26
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Cambridge United
1
3
L
27.01.26
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Milton Keynes Dons
0
1
L
24.01.26
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Salford City
0
1
L
01.01.26
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Shrewsbury
3
0
W
19.12.25
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Crewe
1
1
D
09.12.25
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Barnet
0
4
L
06.12.25
FA
Bristol Rovers
Port Vale
0
1
L
22.11.25
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Cheltenham
0
1
L
15.11.25
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Accrington ST
1
3
L
01.11.25
FA
Bristol Rovers
Bromley
2
1
W
25.10.25
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Crawley Town
0
4
L
04.10.25
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Walsall
1
2
L
20.09.25
Lea
Bristol Rovers
Colchester
1
1
D
H2H away: Bristol Rovers
02.05.26
H2H
Notts County
Bristol Rovers
1
1
D
03.11.17
H2H
Notts County
Bristol Rovers
4
2
L
05.03.16
H2H
Notts County
Bristol Rovers
0
2
W

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 24 15 7 71:46 25 87
W L D L W
2 46 24 14 8 86:45 41 86
D W W W D
3 46 22 16 8 66:33 33 82
D W L D W
4 46 25 6 15 61:51 10 81
L D W D W
5 46 24 8 14 74:52 22 80
W D W D W
6 46 21 16 9 71:56 15 79
D L W W D
7 46 22 12 12 74:50 24 78
D L D W W
8 46 21 13 12 70:53 17 76
W W W W W
9 46 22 9 15 70:59 11 75
L L D L W
10 46 18 14 14 60:44 16 68
W L L L L
11 46 19 10 17 64:58 6 67
D L L L W
12 46 18 12 16 62:49 13 66
W L L W W
13 46 18 11 17 56:56 0 65
L L W L L
14 46 19 5 22 56:65 -9 62
D W W W W
15 46 15 16 15 57:58 -1 61
D D D W L
16 46 14 11 21 47:58 -11 53
L D D L L
17 46 13 14 19 53:72 -19 53
W L L L D
18 46 14 10 22 53:79 -26 52
L L L W W
19 46 13 10 23 42:69 -27 49
L D D W L
20 46 12 7 27 48:77 -29 43
W W L W L
21 46 10 11 25 54:79 -25 41
D L W L D
22 46 8 16 22 44:68 -24 40
D D D L L
23 46 10 9 27 39:68 -29 39
L W W L L
24 46 9 9 28 45:78 -33 36
L L L W L
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation