ENGLAND › PREMIER LEAGUE
10.05.2026 13:00
City Ground
Referee: P. Tierney
Nottingham Forest
Match Timeline
Newcastle
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
N. Dominguez ↔ R. Yates
Nottingham Forest
🟨
49'
Igor Jesus
Nottingham Forest
🟨
54'
Ryan Yates
Nottingham Forest
🔄
61'
N. Woltemade ↔ J. Ramsey
Newcastle
🔄
61'
J. Murphy ↔ H. Barnes
Newcastle
🔄
64'
D. Bakwa ↔ O. Hutchinson
Nottingham Forest
🔄
71'
W. Osula ↔ Y. Wissa
Newcastle
🔄
73'
T. Awoniyi ↔ C. Wood
Nottingham Forest
⚽
74'
H. Barnes · Assist: J. Ramsey
Newcastle
🔄
83'
L. Netz ↔ J. McAtee
Nottingham Forest
🔄
83'
Igor Jesus ↔ L. Lucca
Nottingham Forest
⚽
88'
E. Anderson · Assist: J. McAtee
Nottingham Forest
🔄
90+5'
Bruno Guimaraes ↔ K. Trippier
Newcastle

Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 18.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77.2%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
26%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
18.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
85.9%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Nottingham Forest Win 77.2%
Draw 0%
Newcastle Win 22.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nottingham Forest1.42
Newcastle1.51
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest
WWDLW
71 GF / 65 GA
Newcastle Newcastle
WLDWL
84 GF / 75 GA
Key Stats
1.37
Average Goals Scored
1.68
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
22
BTTS Yes
34
29
Over 2.5
35
4.73
Shots on Goal
5.08

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 52 matches
Newcastle Newcastle 50 matches
Nottingham Forest Statistic Newcastle
19 Wins 20
13 Draws 10
20 Losses 20
71 Goals For 84
65 Goals Against 75
1.37 Avg Goals Scored 1.68
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
22 BTTS Yes 34
40 Over 1.5 41
29 Over 2.5 35
14 Over 3.5 20
16 Clean Sheets 12
18 Failed To Score 8
4.73 Shots On Goal 5.08
13.73 Total Shots 13.38
5.4 Corners 5.9
48.9% Ball Possession 51.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Newcastle. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nottingham Forest expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Newcastle in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Newcastle having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Nottingham Forest come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods.

Nottingham Forest Analysis

Nottingham Forest sit 16 with 42 points after 35 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 11 wins, 9 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 44:46 goal record continues to suggest very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Gibbs-White (13 goals), Igor Jesus (6 goals), T. Awoniyi (4 goals), with creative support from M. Gibbs-White (4 assists), Igor Jesus (4 assists), C. Hudson-Odoi (4 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Newcastle Analysis

With 45 points from 35 games and a place of 13, Newcastle still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 13 wins, 6 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 49:51, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Bruno Guimarães (9 goals), N. Woltemade (8 goals), Anthony Gordon (6 goals), with creative support from Bruno Guimarães (5 assists), L. Miley (4 assists), N. Woltemade (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Nottingham Forest won 4 times, Newcastle won 8 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:30 from Nottingham Forest's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 12 matches, with an average of 3.86 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Nottingham Forest 4-4-2 / Newcastle 4-3-3
Missing players: Nottingham Forest 8, Newcastle 4
H2H summary: Nottingham Forest wins 4, draws 2, Newcastle wins 8

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14 38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship