ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
20.09.2026 12:30
Carrow Road

Norwich vs Bolton Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.5%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Norwich Win 55.5%
Draw 17%
Bolton Win 27.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Norwich1.43
Bolton1.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
Norwich Norwich
WWDLW
21 GF / 15 GA
Bolton Bolton
WLDWL
13 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
1.08
1.07
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
6
BTTS Yes
6
8
Over 2.5
6
5.71
Shots on Goal
4.71

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Norwich Norwich 14 matches
Bolton Bolton 12 matches
Norwich Statistic Bolton
6 Wins 4
3 Draws 3
5 Losses 5
21 Goals For 13
15 Goals Against 16
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
1.07 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
6 BTTS Yes 6
10 Over 1.5 7
8 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 4
5 Failed To Score 4
5.71 Shots On Goal 4.71
15.71 Total Shots 12.71
4.86 Corners 5.86
51.7% Ball Possession 52.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Norwich arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 11 with 9 points compared to Bolton in 20 on 7, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Bolton. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Bolton arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Norwich Analysis

So far, Norwich have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 9 points from 7 matches. The record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 13:13 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Touré (4 goals), A. Brooks (2 goals), M. Kvistgaarden (2 goals), with creative support from A. Brooks (1 assists), M. Kvistgaarden (1 assists), A. Musaba (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Bolton Analysis

Bolton approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 20 with 7 points from 7 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 7:12, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through T. Gale (2 goals), S. Dalby (1 goals), E. Erhahon (1 goals), with creative support from J. McAtee (1 assists), T. Bair (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Norwich won 6 times, Bolton won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:7 from Norwich's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.88 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83%)
Predicted formations: Norwich 4-2-3-1 / Bolton 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Norwich wins 6, draws 1, Bolton wins 1

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 4 2 1 20:9 11 14
W W W W D
2 7 4 2 1 11:5 6 14
W L D W W
3 7 4 2 1 10:7 3 14
D W W D L
4 6 4 1 1 12:8 4 13
W W D W L
5 7 3 3 1 8:5 3 12
D D L W W
6 7 3 3 1 6:7 -1 12
D D L D W
7 6 3 2 1 14:10 4 11
W D L W W
8 7 4 2 1 18:8 10 10
W W D D W
9 7 2 4 1 10:9 1 10
W L D D W
10 7 3 1 3 11:11 0 10
W D W W L
11 6 3 1 2 10:11 -1 10
L W W W D
12 7 3 0 4 13:13 0 9
L W W L W
13 6 3 0 3 11:11 0 9
L W L L W
14 7 2 3 2 8:9 -1 9
L W L W D
15 7 2 2 3 10:10 0 8
W L L D L
16 6 2 2 2 5:6 -1 8
W D D W L
17 7 2 2 3 7:9 -2 8
L W L L D
18 6 2 1 3 7:8 -1 7
D W L L W
19 7 1 4 2 7:11 -4 7
L D D W L
20 7 2 1 4 7:12 -5 7
W L L L L
21 7 0 4 3 7:11 -4 4
L D L L D
22 7 1 1 5 6:13 -7 4
L L L W L
23 7 1 0 6 6:13 -7 3
L L W L L
24 7 0 3 4 8:16 -8 3
L D L D L
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One