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ENGLAND › LEAGUE TWO
20.10.2026 18:45
Sixfields Stadium

Northampton vs Tranmere Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 92.9%
Odds 1.33
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 65.4%
Odds 1.76
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
92.9%
1.33 ▥
BTTS Yes
58.8%
1.80 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
65.4%
1.76 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
79.9%
1.27 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
7.00 ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
10.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Northampton Win 43.7%
Draw 7.1%
Tranmere Win 49.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Northampton1.06
Tranmere1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
Northampton Northampton
WWDLW
13 GF / 13 GA
Tranmere Tranmere
WLDWL
16 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
0.93
Average Goals Scored
1.33
0.93
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
5
BTTS Yes
7
3
Over 2.5
4
3.67
Shots on Goal
4.36

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Northampton Northampton 14 matches
Tranmere Tranmere 12 matches
Northampton Statistic Tranmere
4 Wins 3
6 Draws 6
4 Losses 3
13 Goals For 16
13 Goals Against 15
0.93 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
0.93 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
5 BTTS Yes 7
8 Over 1.5 11
3 Over 2.5 4
2 Over 3.5 3
5 Clean Sheets 4
7 Failed To Score 2
3.67 Shots On Goal 4.36
10.22 Total Shots 11.64
5.22 Corners 3.27
44.3% Ball Possession 46.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Northampton expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Tranmere in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Tranmere having the stronger overall control. Tranmere carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 13 with 12 points while Northampton sit 23 on 7, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Tranmere.

Northampton Analysis

Northampton approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 23 with 7 points from 8 matches. The overall return of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats with a 4:7 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on J. O'Brien-Whitmarsh (2 goals), L. Briggs (1 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Tranmere Analysis

So far, Tranmere have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 12 points from 10 matches. The record of 2 wins, 6 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 13:13 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through D. Jones (2 goals), T. Ince (1 goals), J. Slater (1 goals), with creative support from T. Ince (2 assists), W. Vaulks (2 assists), J. Senior (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Northampton won 5 times, Tranmere won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:6 from Northampton's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.9%)
Predicted formations: Northampton 4-4-2 / Tranmere 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Northampton wins 5, draws 2, Tranmere wins 1

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 1 3 17:11 6 22
W W W W W
2 9 6 3 0 22:12 10 21
W W W W D
3 11 5 6 0 15:9 6 21
W W W D D
4 10 4 4 2 18:12 6 16
D D W L W
5 10 3 7 0 13:7 6 16
D D D W D
6 11 4 4 3 16:13 3 16
L W D L W
7 11 4 3 4 17:15 2 15
L D W L W
8 11 4 3 4 17:20 -3 15
L L L W D
9 11 5 0 6 15:18 -3 15
L L L W L
10 11 3 5 3 16:15 1 14
W D W D D
11 11 3 5 3 14:13 1 14
D W D W D
12 11 3 5 3 12:11 1 14
W D L L L
13 11 4 2 5 13:15 -2 14
L D W W W
14 11 4 2 5 10:15 -5 14
W L W D D
15 11 3 4 4 13:13 0 13
L L L L W
16 11 3 4 4 6:6 0 13
D W W L D
17 11 2 6 3 14:15 -1 12
L D L D D
18 11 3 3 5 10:15 -5 12
D L L D L
19 10 3 2 5 13:14 -1 11
W D L L L
20 10 2 5 3 10:13 -3 11
D L D D D
21 9 3 2 4 5:9 -4 11
W W L W L
22 9 2 4 3 6:7 -1 10
W D L L W
23 11 2 4 5 12:18 -6 10
L L L D W
24 9 1 2 6 9:17 -8 5
L D L L L
Promotion - League One
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation - National League