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19.09.2026 14:00
Sixfields Stadium
Referee: W. Finnie
Northampton
Match Timeline
Rotherham
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
48'
Josh Austerfield
Rotherham
🔄
60'
D. Iorfa ↔ J. Buyabu
Rotherham
🟨
66'
Ossama Ashley
Rotherham
🔄
67'
S. Chambers ↔ H. Saunders
Northampton
🔄
67'
O. Ashley ↔ K. Spence
Rotherham
🔄
67'
F. Tavares ↔ T. Bradshaw
Rotherham
🟨
72'
Max Dyche
Northampton
⚽
73'
P. Mullin
Rotherham
🔄
79'
P. Mullin ↔ K. Ngwenya
Rotherham
🔄
79'
A. Nemane ↔ E. Adegboyega
Rotherham
🔄
81'
O. Dale ↔ L. Briggs
Northampton
🔄
82'
M. Dyche ↔ M. Warhurst
Northampton
🟨
85'
Tyrese Fornah
Northampton
🔄
87'
N. Opoku ↔ C. Lemonheigh-Evans
Northampton
🔄
87'
T. Fornah ↔ S. Hoskins
Northampton

Northampton vs Rotherham Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 59.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
59.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
63.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Northampton Win 40.9%
Draw 18.1%
Rotherham Win 41.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Northampton1.01
Rotherham1.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
Northampton Northampton
L W D D L
3 GF / 5 GA
Rotherham Rotherham
D L D W D
8 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
0.91
Average Goals Scored
1.23
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.15
4
BTTS Yes
8
3
Over 2.5
4
3.5
Shots on Goal
4.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Northampton Northampton 11 matches
Rotherham Rotherham 13 matches
Northampton Statistic Rotherham
3 Wins 4
5 Draws 6
3 Losses 3
10 Goals For 16
11 Goals Against 15
0.91 Avg Goals Scored 1.23
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.15
4 BTTS Yes 8
6 Over 1.5 10
3 Over 2.5 4
2 Over 3.5 2
4 Clean Sheets 3
6 Failed To Score 2
3.5 Shots On Goal 4.33
8.83 Total Shots 14
5.17 Corners 3.83
47.7% Ball Possession 49.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Rotherham. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Northampton expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Rotherham in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Rotherham having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Northampton Analysis

With 6 points from 5 games and a place of 14, Northampton still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, together with goals at 3:3, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through J. O'Brien-Whitmarsh (1 goals), L. Briggs (1 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Rotherham Analysis

Rotherham sit 18 with 5 points after 5 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, together with goals at 6:7, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Fábio Tavares (1 goals), E. Otoo (1 goals), P. Mullin (1 goals), with creative support from K. Spence (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Northampton won 1 times, Rotherham won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:19 from Northampton's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.9%)
Predicted formations: Northampton 4-4-2 / Rotherham 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Northampton wins 1, draws 2, Rotherham wins 7

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 14 10 1 3 25:15 10 31
W W W W W
2 13 7 5 1 28:18 10 26
D W D L W
3 13 5 7 1 21:12 9 22
W L W D D
4 14 5 7 2 17:17 0 22
D L L W W
5 14 6 3 5 23:25 -2 21
L W W L L
6 14 5 5 4 24:18 6 20
W W D L L
7 14 5 5 4 24:21 3 20
L L W D D
8 14 5 5 4 20:19 1 20
W L D L W
9 14 4 7 3 23:17 6 19
D W D W D
10 14 5 4 5 24:21 3 19
L W D L D
11 14 4 7 3 19:17 2 19
W D W L D
12 14 5 4 5 11:9 2 19
L W W D W
13 14 5 4 5 15:17 -2 19
W D W D L
14 14 4 6 4 20:17 3 18
W L D D W
15 14 5 3 6 17:22 -5 18
L D W W L
16 14 4 5 5 18:18 0 17
W L L W D
17 14 5 1 8 17:23 -6 16
L D L L L
18 14 4 3 7 15:19 -4 15
W L D L W
19 12 4 3 5 10:14 -4 15
W L D W W
20 14 4 3 7 17:26 -9 15
L L D L D
21 13 3 5 5 9:10 -1 14
L D W L W
22 14 2 6 6 18:25 -7 12
L D D L L
23 13 2 6 5 12:19 -7 12
L L D D L
24 12 2 3 7 13:21 -8 9
W D L L D
Promotion - League One
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation - National League