ENGLAND LEAGUE ONE
--.--.---- --:--
Sixfields Stadium
Referee: B. Speedie
Northampton
Match Timeline
Plymouth
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
13'
E. List · Assist: M. Jacobs
Northampton
18'
M. Jacobs · Assist: N. Guinness-Walker
Northampton
28'
L. Tolaj · Assist: J. Edwards
Plymouth
🟨
34'
Owen Dale
Plymouth
40'
M. Boateng · Assist: L. Tolaj
Plymouth
🟨
45+1'
Conor McCarthy
Northampton
🔄
55'
C. Watts ↔ B. Wiredu
Plymouth
🔄
55'
O. Dale ↔ X. Amaechi
Plymouth
🟨
59'
Mathias Ross
Plymouth
🟨
62'
Conor McCarthy
Northampton
🟥
62'
Conor McCarthy
Northampton
🔄
63'
N. Guinness-Walker ↔ S. Hoskins
Northampton
🟨
64'
Elliot List
Northampton
🟨
66'
Malachi Boateng
Plymouth
🔄
70'
E. List ↔ K. Swyer
Northampton
🔄
70'
J. Edwards ↔ J. Pleguezuelo
Plymouth
🔄
70'
M. Ross ↔ J. MacKenzie
Plymouth
74'
B. Wiredu · Assist: X. Amaechi
Plymouth
🟨
79'
Ronan Curtis
Plymouth
🟨
84'
Jake Evans
Northampton
🔄
85'
J. Evans ↔ N. Dobson
Northampton
🔄
85'
M. Jacobs ↔ J. Vale
Northampton
🔄
85'
K. McAdam ↔ D. Campbell
Northampton
🔄
87'
R. Curtis ↔ M. Sorinola
Plymouth

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 86.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 23.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 27%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
86.3%
-
BTTS BTTS No
23.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
27%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Northampton Win 13.7%
Draw 0%
Plymouth Win 86.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Northampton1.05
Plymouth1.59
Recent Form (Last 5)
Northampton Northampton
WWDLW
38 GF / 74 GA
Plymouth Plymouth
WLDWL
72 GF / 63 GA
Key Stats
0.83
Average Goals Scored
1.57
1.61
Average Goals Conceded
1.37
22
BTTS Yes
24
22
Over 2.5
26
2.76
Shots on Goal
4.54

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Northampton Northampton 46 matches
Plymouth Plymouth 46 matches
Northampton Statistic Plymouth
9 Wins 21
8 Draws 7
29 Losses 18
38 Goals For 72
74 Goals Against 63
0.83 Avg Goals Scored 1.57
1.61 Avg Goals Conceded 1.37
22 BTTS Yes 24
32 Over 1.5 35
22 Over 2.5 26
12 Over 3.5 17
10 Clean Sheets 12
19 Failed To Score 10
2.76 Shots On Goal 4.54
9.04 Total Shots 13.02
4.76 Corners 5.39
43.6% Ball Possession 46.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Plymouth's more proactive style and Northampton's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Plymouth. Plymouth carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 8 with 70 points while Northampton sit 24 on 35, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Northampton have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Northampton Analysis

Northampton sit 24 with 35 points after 45 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 9 wins, 8 draws, and 28 defeats with a 37:71 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on T. Eaves (8 goals), Cameron McGeehan (7 goals), S. Hoskins (6 goals), with creative support from D. Campbell (5 assists), N. Guinness-Walker (3 assists), Terry Taylor (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 4 draws, and 12 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Plymouth Analysis

So far, Plymouth have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 70 points from 45 matches. Their overall return of 21 wins, 7 draws, and 17 losses with goals at 72:61 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Pepple (16 goals), O. Oseni (7 goals), C. Watts (6 goals), with creative support from M. Boateng (8 assists), Bali Mumba (5 assists), A. Pepple (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 11 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Northampton won 6 times, Plymouth won 8 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:19 from Northampton's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.64 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Northampton 4-4-2 / Plymouth 4-4-2
H2H summary: Northampton wins 6, draws 0, Plymouth wins 8
Stats
Northampton Northampton
Plymouth Plymouth
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
10
Shots off Goal
1
Shots off Goal
9
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
7
2 Corner Kicks 8
17 Fouls 14
2 Offsides 3
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 26
4 Shots on Goal 10
1 Shots off Goal 9
2 Blocked Shots 7
3 Shots insidebox 21
4 Shots outsidebox 5
6 Goalkeeper Saves 2
255 Total passes 266
145 Passes accurate 167
0.33 expected_goals 4.85
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 1 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Northampton
Formation
Plymouth
L. Burge
L. Burge
C. McCarthy
C. McCarthy
J. Willis
J. Willis
M. Dyche
M. Dyche
N. Guinness-Walker
🎯
N. Guinness-Walker
C. McGeehan
C. McGeehan
T. Taylor
T. Taylor
K. McAdam
K. McAdam
J. Evans
J. Evans
M. Jacobs
🎯
M. Jacobs
E. List
E. List
L. Ashby-Hammond
L. Ashby-Hammond
J. Edwards
🎯
J. Edwards
M. Ross
M. Ross
A. Mitchell
A. Mitchell
W. Harding
W. Harding
R. Curtis
R. Curtis
M. Boateng
M. Boateng
C. Watts
C. Watts
O. Dale
O. Dale
A. Pepple
A. Pepple
L. Tolaj
🎯
L. Tolaj
Northampton 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
L. Burge
G
3
C. McCarthy
🟨 45+1' 🟨 62' 🟥 62'
D
6
J. Willis
D
35
M. Dyche
D
12
N. Guinness-Walker
🎯 18' ↓ 63'
M
8
C. McGeehan
M
23
T. Taylor
M
26
K. McAdam
↓ 85'
M
15
J. Evans
↓ 85' 🟨 84'
F
17
M. Jacobs
⚽ 18' 🎯 13' ↓ 85'
F
10
E. List
⚽ 13' ↓ 70' 🟨 64'
F
Substitutes
34
R. Fitzsimons
G
11
K. Swyer
↑ 70'
F
40
N. Dobson
↑ 85'
F
7
S. Hoskins
↑ 63'
F
27
J. Vale
↑ 85'
F
4
D. Campbell
↑ 85'
M
32
M. Moon-Arnaez
M
Plymouth 4-4-2
Starting XI
21
L. Ashby-Hammond
G
8
J. Edwards
🎯 28' ↓ 70'
D
2
M. Ross
↓ 70' 🟨 59'
D
15
A. Mitchell
D
45
W. Harding
D
28
R. Curtis
↓ 87' 🟨 79'
M
19
M. Boateng
⚽ 40' 🟨 66'
M
17
C. Watts
↓ 55'
M
35
O. Dale
↓ 55' 🟨 34'
M
27
A. Pepple
F
9
L. Tolaj
⚽ 28' 🎯 40'
F
Substitutes
13
Z. Baker
G
5
J. Pleguezuelo
↑ 70'
D
4
B. Wiredu
⚽ 74' ↑ 55'
M
10
X. Amaechi
🎯 74' ↑ 55'
F
3
J. MacKenzie
↑ 70'
D
29
M. Sorinola
↑ 87'
D
23
B. Ibrahim
M
Last matches: Northampton
28.04.26
Lea
Northampton
Barnsley
0
1
L
25.04.26
Lea
Northampton
Cardiff
1
5
L
18.04.26
Lea
Northampton
Doncaster
1
3
L
15.04.26
Lea
Northampton
Luton
1
2
L
06.04.26
Lea
Northampton
Wigan
1
3
L
03.04.26
Lea
Northampton
Bradford
0
1
L
21.03.26
Lea
Northampton
Mansfield Town
1
4
L
17.03.26
Lea
Northampton
Stockport County
1
2
L
14.03.26
Lea
Northampton
Burton Albion
0
2
L
08.03.26
Lea
Northampton
AFC Wimbledon
0
1
L
28.02.26
Lea
Northampton
Peterborough
1
1
D
24.02.26
Lea
Northampton
Port Vale
0
1
L
21.02.26
Lea
Northampton
Leyton Orient
1
2
L
17.02.26
Lea
Northampton
Lincoln
0
4
L
14.02.26
Lea
Northampton
Exeter City
0
0
D
07.02.26
Lea
Northampton
Stevenage
3
1
W
03.02.26
Lea
Northampton
Barnsley
2
2
D
31.01.26
Lea
Northampton
Reading
0
2
L
27.01.26
Lea
Northampton
Rotherham
1
2
L
24.01.26
Lea
Northampton
Blackpool
0
2
L
Last matches: Plymouth
25.04.26
Lea
Plymouth
Port Vale
2
1
W
21.04.26
Lea
Plymouth
Bradford
1
1
D
18.04.26
Lea
Plymouth
AFC Wimbledon
3
1
W
11.04.26
Lea
Plymouth
Exeter City
2
2
D
06.04.26
Lea
Plymouth
Barnsley
3
0
W
03.04.26
Lea
Plymouth
Bolton
1
2
L
21.03.26
Lea
Plymouth
Huddersfield
3
1
W
17.03.26
Lea
Plymouth
Stevenage
1
0
W
14.03.26
Lea
Plymouth
Reading
2
2
D
10.03.26
Lea
Plymouth
Wigan
3
0
W
07.03.26
Lea
Plymouth
Doncaster
2
1
W
28.02.26
Lea
Plymouth
Rotherham
0
1
L
21.02.26
Lea
Plymouth
Cardiff
5
2
W
17.02.26
Lea
Plymouth
Leyton Orient
3
1
W
14.02.26
Lea
Plymouth
Blackpool
4
0
W
07.02.26
Lea
Plymouth
Lincoln
1
4
L
31.01.26
Lea
Plymouth
Stockport County
1
2
L
27.01.26
Lea
Plymouth
Mansfield Town
1
1
D
24.01.26
Lea
Plymouth
Luton
1
0
W
17.01.26
Lea
Plymouth
Peterborough
1
0
W
H2H: Northampton vs Plymouth
02.05.26
H2H
Northampton
Plymouth
2
3
L
29.11.25
H2H
Plymouth
Northampton
0
3
W
02.03.21
H2H
Northampton
Plymouth
2
0
W
17.10.20
H2H
Plymouth
Northampton
2
1
L
13.04.20
H2H
Plymouth
Northampton
0
0
D
31.08.19
H2H
Northampton
Plymouth
3
1
W
21.04.18
H2H
Northampton
Plymouth
2
0
W
21.11.17
H2H
Plymouth
Northampton
2
0
L
12.01.16
H2H
Plymouth
Northampton
1
2
W
22.08.15
H2H
Northampton
Plymouth
0
2
L
07.03.15
H2H
Plymouth
Northampton
2
0
L
13.12.14
H2H
Northampton
Plymouth
2
3
L
08.02.14
H2H
Northampton
Plymouth
0
2
L
02.11.13
H2H
Plymouth
Northampton
1
0
L
23.02.13
H2H
Northampton
Plymouth
1
0
W
Last matches: Northampton
28.04.26
Lea
Northampton
Barnsley
0
1
L
18.04.26
Lea
Northampton
Doncaster
1
3
L
06.04.26
Lea
Northampton
Wigan
1
3
L
14.03.26
Lea
Northampton
Burton Albion
0
2
L
28.02.26
Lea
Northampton
Peterborough
1
1
D
24.02.26
Lea
Northampton
Port Vale
0
1
L
21.02.26
Lea
Northampton
Leyton Orient
1
2
L
07.02.26
Lea
Northampton
Stevenage
3
1
W
31.01.26
Lea
Northampton
Reading
0
2
L
17.01.26
Lea
Northampton
Wycombe
1
2
L
01.01.26
Lea
Northampton
Stockport County
0
0
D
19.12.25
Lea
Northampton
AFC Wimbledon
3
1
W
09.12.25
Lea
Northampton
Huddersfield
1
1
D
22.11.25
Lea
Northampton
Cardiff
1
3
L
08.11.25
Lea
Northampton
Mansfield Town
2
1
W
25.10.25
Lea
Northampton
Luton
0
1
L
11.10.25
Lea
Northampton
Rotherham
1
2
L
27.09.25
Lea
Northampton
Bolton
2
0
W
13.09.25
Lea
Northampton
Blackpool
1
0
W
23.08.25
Lea
Northampton
Exeter City
2
0
W
H2H at home: Northampton
02.05.26
H2H
Northampton
Plymouth
2
3
L
02.03.21
H2H
Northampton
Plymouth
2
0
W
31.08.19
H2H
Northampton
Plymouth
3
1
W
21.04.18
H2H
Northampton
Plymouth
2
0
W
22.08.15
H2H
Northampton
Plymouth
0
2
L
13.12.14
H2H
Northampton
Plymouth
2
3
L
08.02.14
H2H
Northampton
Plymouth
0
2
L
23.02.13
H2H
Northampton
Plymouth
1
0
W
Last matches: Plymouth
21.04.26
Lea
Plymouth
Bradford
1
1
D
18.04.26
Lea
Plymouth
AFC Wimbledon
3
1
W
06.04.26
Lea
Plymouth
Barnsley
3
0
W
14.03.26
Lea
Plymouth
Reading
2
2
D
10.03.26
Lea
Plymouth
Wigan
3
0
W
28.02.26
Lea
Plymouth
Rotherham
0
1
L
17.02.26
Lea
Plymouth
Leyton Orient
3
1
W
14.02.26
Lea
Plymouth
Blackpool
4
0
W
31.01.26
Lea
Plymouth
Stockport County
1
2
L
17.01.26
Lea
Plymouth
Peterborough
1
0
W
01.01.26
Lea
Plymouth
Stevenage
1
1
D
20.12.25
Lea
Plymouth
Doncaster
5
1
W
09.12.25
Lea
Plymouth
Wycombe
1
0
W
22.11.25
Lea
Plymouth
Port Vale
1
0
W
08.11.25
Lea
Plymouth
Huddersfield
1
3
L
01.11.25
FA
Plymouth
Wycombe
0
2
L
28.10.25
Lea
Plymouth
Mansfield Town
0
2
L
23.10.25
Lea
Plymouth
Exeter City
0
2
L
27.09.25
Lea
Plymouth
Burton Albion
4
0
W
13.09.25
Lea
Plymouth
Luton
3
2
W
H2H away: Plymouth
02.05.26
H2H
Northampton
Plymouth
2
3
W
02.03.21
H2H
Northampton
Plymouth
2
0
L
31.08.19
H2H
Northampton
Plymouth
3
1
L
21.04.18
H2H
Northampton
Plymouth
2
0
L
22.08.15
H2H
Northampton
Plymouth
0
2
W
13.12.14
H2H
Northampton
Plymouth
2
3
W
08.02.14
H2H
Northampton
Plymouth
0
2
W
23.02.13
H2H
Northampton
Plymouth
1
0
L

Standings

League One: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 31 10 5 89:41 48 103
W W W D W
2 46 27 10 9 90:50 40 91
L W W W D
3 46 22 11 13 71:58 13 77
W L W L D
4 46 22 11 13 58:51 7 77
W D D D L
5 46 19 18 9 70:52 18 75
L D D W L
6 46 21 12 13 49:46 3 75
W D W D L
7 46 21 11 14 68:56 12 74
W W W D W
8 46 22 7 17 75:63 12 73
W W D W D
9 46 18 13 15 74:64 10 67
W L D D D
10 46 16 17 13 62:50 12 65
W D W W D
11 46 17 12 17 69:58 11 63
W L L D L
12 46 16 15 15 64:60 4 63
L D L L L
13 46 17 9 20 54:65 -11 60
W W W W L
14 46 17 9 20 50:69 -19 60
W D L W W
15 46 15 14 17 68:73 -5 59
L W L L D
16 46 14 14 18 49:58 -9 56
L L D W W
17 46 13 15 18 50:60 -10 54
D D D W D
18 46 15 8 23 64:68 -4 53
L D L D L
19 46 15 8 23 51:72 -21 53
L W L L L
20 46 14 10 22 59:71 -12 52
D L L D L
21 46 12 13 21 52:61 -9 49
L D D D W
22 46 10 12 24 36:61 -25 42
L W L L D
23 46 10 11 25 41:71 -30 41
L D L W L
24 46 9 8 29 39:74 -35 35
L L L L L
Promotion - Championship
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two