BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Alfredo de Castilho
Noroeste
Match Timeline
Velo Clube
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
61'
Pedro Carrerette
Noroeste
77'
Peixoto
Noroeste
89'
Pedro Carrerette
Noroeste

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 45.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 77.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.8%
-
BTTS BTTS No
45.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
77.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Noroeste Win 60.8%
Draw 13.7%
Velo Clube Win 25.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Noroeste0.97
Velo Clube0.93
Recent Form (Last 5)
Noroeste Noroeste
WWDLW
7 GF / 5 GA
Velo Clube Velo Clube
WLDWL
6 GF / 4 GA
Key Stats
1.17
Average Goals Scored
1
0.83
Average Goals Conceded
0.67
2
BTTS Yes
3
2
Over 2.5
1
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Noroeste Noroeste 6 matches
Velo Clube Velo Clube 6 matches
Noroeste Statistic Velo Clube
2 Wins 2
2 Draws 3
2 Losses 1
7 Goals For 6
5 Goals Against 4
1.17 Avg Goals Scored 1
0.83 Avg Goals Conceded 0.67
2 BTTS Yes 3
3 Over 1.5 4
2 Over 2.5 1
1 Over 3.5 0
2 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Velo Clube. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Velo Clube having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Noroeste Analysis

Noroeste come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 8 points from 6 matches. The record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 7:5 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Marlyson (4 goals), A. Caua (1 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Velo Clube Analysis

Placed 2 with 9 points from 6 outings, Velo Clube continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 6:4 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Lucas Duni (3 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Noroeste won 4 times, Velo Clube won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:9 from Noroeste's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.62 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.3%)
H2H summary: Noroeste wins 4, draws 4, Velo Clube wins 5
Last matches: Noroeste
28.06.26
Ser
Noroeste
Portuguesa RJ
1
3
L
21.06.26
Ser
Noroeste
Portuguesa RJ
1
1
D
07.06.26
Ser
Noroeste
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
Nova Iguaçu
0
1
L
09.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
CFRJ / Maricá
3
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
CFRJ / Maricá
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
Velo Clube
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
Nova Iguaçu
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
XV de Piracicaba
2
2
D
04.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
0
1
L
Last matches: Velo Clube
12.07.26
Ser
Velo Clube
São Luiz
1
2
L
04.07.26
Ser
Velo Clube
São Luiz
2
1
W
27.06.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Água Santa
1
1
D
20.06.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Água Santa
0
0
D
07.06.26
Ser
Velo Clube
CFRJ / Maricá
3
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Nova Iguaçu
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Nova Iguaçu
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Noroeste
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
2
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
CFRJ / Maricá
1
2
L
H2H: Noroeste vs Velo Clube
16.05.26
H2H
Noroeste
Velo Clube
3
0
W
25.04.26
H2H
Velo Clube
Noroeste
1
0
L
01.02.26
H2H
Noroeste
Velo Clube
2
0
W
15.01.25
H2H
Velo Clube
Noroeste
0
2
W
13.04.24
H2H
Velo Clube
Noroeste
1
1
D
10.04.24
H2H
Noroeste
Velo Clube
0
1
L
07.02.24
H2H
Noroeste
Velo Clube
0
1
L
22.03.23
H2H
Noroeste
Velo Clube
0
0
D
17.03.23
H2H
Velo Clube
Noroeste
0
1
W
20.01.23
H2H
Velo Clube
Noroeste
3
2
L
07.11.20
H2H
Noroeste
Velo Clube
1
2
L
31.10.20
H2H
Velo Clube
Noroeste
0
0
D
01.03.20
H2H
Noroeste
Velo Clube
0
0
D
Last matches: Noroeste
28.06.26
Ser
Noroeste
Portuguesa RJ
1
3
L
07.06.26
Ser
Noroeste
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
CFRJ / Maricá
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
Nova Iguaçu
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
XV de Piracicaba
2
2
D
H2H at home: Noroeste
16.05.26
H2H
Noroeste
Velo Clube
3
0
W
01.02.26
H2H
Noroeste
Velo Clube
2
0
W
10.04.24
H2H
Noroeste
Velo Clube
0
1
L
07.02.24
H2H
Noroeste
Velo Clube
0
1
L
22.03.23
H2H
Noroeste
Velo Clube
0
0
D
07.11.20
H2H
Noroeste
Velo Clube
1
2
L
01.03.20
H2H
Noroeste
Velo Clube
0
0
D
Last matches: Velo Clube
12.07.26
Ser
Velo Clube
São Luiz
1
2
L
27.06.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Água Santa
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
0
1
L
03.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Nova Iguaçu
0
0
D
18.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
04.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
CFRJ / Maricá
1
2
L
H2H away: Velo Clube
16.05.26
H2H
Noroeste
Velo Clube
3
0
L
01.02.26
H2H
Noroeste
Velo Clube
2
0
L
10.04.24
H2H
Noroeste
Velo Clube
0
1
W
07.02.24
H2H
Noroeste
Velo Clube
0
1
W
22.03.23
H2H
Noroeste
Velo Clube
0
0
D
07.11.20
H2H
Noroeste
Velo Clube
1
2
W
01.03.20
H2H
Noroeste
Velo Clube
0
0
D

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)