ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
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Referee: K. Laane

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Draw
Probability 38%
Odds 3.67
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.53
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.53
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Draw
38%
3.67
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.53
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.53
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
2.85
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
6.50
Correct Score 2-2
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
Nõmme United Win 29%
Draw 38%
Kuressaare Win 33%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nõmme United2.11
Kuressaare1.72
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nõmme United Nõmme United
WWDLW
54 GF / 62 GA
Kuressaare Kuressaare
WLDWL
28 GF / 47 GA
Key Stats
2.16
Average Goals Scored
1.22
2.48
Average Goals Conceded
2.04
21
BTTS Yes
13
24
Over 2.5
14
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nõmme United Nõmme United 25 matches
Kuressaare Kuressaare 23 matches
Nõmme United Statistic Kuressaare
10 Wins 6
2 Draws 4
13 Losses 13
54 Goals For 28
62 Goals Against 47
2.16 Avg Goals Scored 1.22
2.48 Avg Goals Conceded 2.04
21 BTTS Yes 13
25 Over 1.5 18
24 Over 2.5 14
17 Over 3.5 8
1 Clean Sheets 2
3 Failed To Score 9
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Kuressaare. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Kuressaare having the stronger overall control. Nõmme United have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Nõmme United Analysis

Nõmme United approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 7 with 19 points from 18 matches. The overall return of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 11 defeats with a 34:43 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Kuressaare Analysis

Kuressaare sit 9 with 17 points after 18 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 2 draws, and 11 losses, while the 17:30 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Nõmme United won 2 times, Kuressaare won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:17 from Nõmme United's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.56 goals per game.

1X2: Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (71%)
H2H summary: Nõmme United wins 2, draws 4, Kuressaare wins 3
Last matches: Nõmme United
03.07.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kalju Nomme
1
3
L
20.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Laagri
3
1
W
17.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
13.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
2
1
W
29.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
4
L
20.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
1
2
L
15.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Tammeka
1
3
L
10.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Paide
2
3
L
02.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Vaprus
3
2
W
25.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
2
1
W
22.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kalju Nomme
1
7
L
18.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Laagri
1
2
L
11.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
5
1
W
08.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Paide
1
3
L
04.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
1
D
21.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Tammeka
2
3
L
14.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Vaprus
7
1
W
07.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
20.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Viimsi
5
1
W
14.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
FC Tallinn
3
0
W
Last matches: Kuressaare
02.07.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
26.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Vaprus
0
1
L
16.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
0
0
D
13.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Laagri
3
2
W
31.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Paide
1
1
D
20.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
2
1
W
17.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
08.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Tammeka
0
1
L
02.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
25.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
1
2
L
21.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Vaprus
0
1
L
18.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
1
W
11.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Laagri
3
2
W
07.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
03.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Paide
0
1
L
21.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
4
L
14.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Tammeka
3
2
W
08.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
2
L
21.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
2
D
14.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Tallinna Kalev
2
0
W
H2H: Nõmme United vs Kuressaare
20.05.26
H2H
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
2
1
L
25.04.26
H2H
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
2
1
W
07.02.26
H2H
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
3
3
D
19.01.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
2
1
L
28.09.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
4
1
L
01.09.24
H2H
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
2
2
D
16.06.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
1
1
D
04.05.24
H2H
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
1
1
D
17.02.23
H2H
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
3
1
W
Last matches: Nõmme United
03.07.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kalju Nomme
1
3
L
17.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
29.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
4
L
10.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Paide
2
3
L
25.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
2
1
W
18.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Laagri
1
2
L
11.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
5
1
W
21.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Tammeka
2
3
L
14.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Vaprus
7
1
W
14.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
FC Tallinn
3
0
W
01.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
FS Jelgava
1
4
L
31.01.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Tammeka
0
6
L
H2H at home: Nõmme United
25.04.26
H2H
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
2
1
W
01.09.24
H2H
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
2
2
D
04.05.24
H2H
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
1
1
D
17.02.23
H2H
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
3
1
W
Last matches: Kuressaare
26.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Vaprus
0
1
L
13.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Laagri
3
2
W
31.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Paide
1
1
D
08.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Tammeka
0
1
L
25.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
1
2
L
18.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
1
W
07.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
21.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
4
L
08.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
2
L
31.01.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Vaprus
2
9
L
24.01.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Viimsi
2
3
L
H2H away: Kuressaare
25.04.26
H2H
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
2
1
L
01.09.24
H2H
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
2
2
D
04.05.24
H2H
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
1
1
D
17.02.23
H2H
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
3
1
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.45
Draw 3.67
Home 1.93
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.77
Draw 2.46
Home 2.38
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 2.25 1.37
Over 2.5 1.53
Over 2.75 1.66
Over 3.0 1.86
Over 3.25 2.09
Over 3.5 2.30
Over 3.75 2.67
Under 2.25 2.92
Under 2.5 2.40
Under 2.75 2.18
Under 3.0 1.94
Under 3.25 1.72
Under 3.5 1.57
Under 3.75 1.44
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.30
Draw 3.60
Home 1.85
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 2.40
Home 2.38
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.40
Draw 2.75
Home 2.20
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 1.5 1.17
Over 2.5 1.57
Over 3.5 2.25
Over 4.5 4.00
Over 5.5 7.00
Over 6.5 10.50
Over 7.5 17.00
Over 8.5 21.00
Under 0.5 10.50
Under 1.5 4.50
Under 2.5 2.35
Under 3.5 1.57
Under 4.5 1.22
Under 5.5 1.08
Under 6.5 1.02
Under 7.5 1.00
Under 8.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.56
Draw 3.55
Home 1.86
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.08
Draw 2.25
Home 2.41
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.62
Draw 2.75
Home 2.15
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 1.0 1.01
Over 1.5 1.11
Over 1.75 1.14
Over 2.0 1.17
Over 2.25 1.32
Over 2.5 1.47
Over 2.75 1.62
Over 3.0 1.76
Over 3.25 2.02
Over 3.5 2.25
Over 3.75 2.56
Over 4.0 3.14
Over 4.25 3.50
Over 4.5 3.84
Over 4.75 4.74
Over 5.0 6.45
Over 5.25 6.80
Over 5.5 7.20
Over 6.5 10.50
Over 7.5 17.00
Over 8.5 21.00
Under 0.5 13.20
Under 1.0 9.90
Under 1.5 4.95
Under 1.75 4.44
Under 2.0 3.98
Under 2.25 2.87
Under 2.5 2.35
Under 2.75 2.15
Under 3.0 1.86
Under 3.25 1.70
Under 3.5 1.57
Under 3.75 1.40
Under 4.0 1.27
Under 4.25 1.22
Under 4.5 1.18
Under 4.75 1.12
Under 5.0 1.05
Under 5.25 1.04
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.02
Under 7.5 1.00
Under 8.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.25
Draw 3.65
Home 1.94
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 2.55
Home 2.38
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.20
Draw 2.88
Home 2.25
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.11
Over 2.0 1.19
Over 2.25 1.33
Over 2.5 1.45
Over 2.75 1.56
Over 3.0 1.71
Over 3.25 1.93
Over 3.5 2.12
Over 3.75 2.45
Over 4.0 3.00
Over 4.25 3.30
Over 4.5 3.60
Over 4.75 4.35
Over 5.0 5.75
Over 5.25 6.00
Over 5.5 6.25
Under 1.5 4.90
Under 2.0 4.10
Under 2.25 3.05
Under 2.5 2.45
Under 2.75 2.23
Under 3.0 1.97
Under 3.25 1.74
Under 3.5 1.60
Under 3.75 1.47
Under 4.0 1.32
Under 4.25 1.27
Under 4.5 1.23
Under 4.75 1.16
Under 5.0 1.10
Under 5.25 1.09
Under 5.5 1.08

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 14 4 1 49:16 33 46
W L D W W
2 18 12 0 6 38:19 19 36
W W L W L
3 19 10 4 5 33:16 17 34
W D D L D
4 19 9 5 5 30:23 7 32
W D W W D
5 19 8 2 9 27:35 -8 26
W L W L D
6 18 8 2 8 21:26 -5 26
L W W W D
7 19 7 1 11 37:45 -8 22
W L W L W
8 19 7 1 11 25:32 -7 22
W L L L L
9 19 5 2 12 19:33 -14 17
L L L D W
10 19 3 1 15 12:46 -34 10
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga