BELARUS 1. DIVISION
--.--.---- --:--
City Stadium
Niva
Match Timeline
BATE II
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
21'
A. Tkhagalegov
Niva
25'
D. Fedortsov · Assist: A. Kuratnik
Niva
45'
P. Pampukha
Niva
🔄
46'
M. Tolkach ↔ E. Shakhnovich
BATE II
56'
D. Fedortsov
Niva
🔄
58'
A. Apanasevich ↔ R. Aliyev
BATE II
🔄
58'
V. Kisel ↔ A. Shreyn
BATE II
🔄
64'
A. Kuratnik ↔ M. Druchik
Niva
🔄
64'
D. Galuza ↔ I. Monich
Niva
🔄
72'
I. Kuimov ↔ E. Feskov
BATE II
🔄
72'
N. Shcherbakov ↔ E. Machnach
BATE II
74'
I. Monich · Assist: P. Pampukha
Niva
🔄
78'
D. Sibilev ↔ V. Skomarovskiy
Niva
🔄
78'
V. Bondarenko ↔ E. Mashagin
Niva
79'
I. Monich · Assist: V. Skomarovskiy
Niva
🟨
82'
M. Gavrilov
BATE II
🔄
82'
V. Shcherbo ↔ V. Milyutin
Niva

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67.7%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Niva Win 67.7%
Draw 4.2%
BATE II Win 28%
Expected Goals (xG)
Niva2.02
BATE II1.5
Recent Form (Last 5)
Niva Niva
WWDLW
31 GF / 25 GA
BATE II BATE II
WLDWL
19 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.94
Average Goals Scored
1.46
1.56
Average Goals Conceded
2.15
11
BTTS Yes
10
12
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Niva Niva 16 matches
BATE II BATE II 13 matches
Niva Statistic BATE II
8 Wins 2
3 Draws 5
5 Losses 6
31 Goals For 19
25 Goals Against 28
1.94 Avg Goals Scored 1.46
1.56 Avg Goals Conceded 2.15
11 BTTS Yes 10
14 Over 1.5 12
12 Over 2.5 7
7 Over 3.5 5
3 Clean Sheets 1
2 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Niva's more proactive style and BATE II's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Niva arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 8 with 20 points compared to BATE II in 14 on 11, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring BATE II. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward BATE II having the stronger overall control.

Niva Analysis

From their first 12 matches, Niva have collected 20 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, while the 25:15 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

BATE II Analysis

BATE II sit 14 with 11 points after 12 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 5 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 16:24 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Niva won 3 times, BATE II won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:6 from Niva's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 4.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.8%)
H2H summary: Niva wins 3, draws 1, BATE II wins 1

Lineups

Niva
Formation
BATE II
N. Dovnar
N. Dovnar
D. Galuza
D. Galuza
D. Sibilev
D. Sibilev
A. Kuratnik
🎯
A. Kuratnik
V. Shcherbo
V. Shcherbo
N. Leshkevich
N. Leshkevich
D. Fedortsov
⚽ 2
D. Fedortsov
P. Pampukha
🎯
P. Pampukha
A. Tkhagalegov
A. Tkhagalegov
R. Kozel
R. Kozel
V. Bondarenko
V. Bondarenko
V. Zhurba
V. Zhurba
N. Shcherbakov
N. Shcherbakov
A. Apanasevich
A. Apanasevich
M. Karpovich
M. Karpovich
M. Tolkach
M. Tolkach
I. Kuimov
I. Kuimov
M. Titov
M. Titov
E. Starikov
E. Starikov
M. Gavrilov
M. Gavrilov
V. Kisel
V. Kisel
Y. Kuzmenok
Y. Kuzmenok
Niva 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
12
N. Dovnar
7
D. Galuza
↓ 64'
8
D. Sibilev
↓ 78'
9
A. Kuratnik
🎯 25' ↓ 64'
18
V. Shcherbo
↓ 82'
21
N. Leshkevich
23
D. Fedortsov
⚽ 25' ⚽ 56'
29
P. Pampukha
⚽ 45' 🎯 74'
41
A. Tkhagalegov
🟨 21'
88
R. Kozel
99
V. Bondarenko
↓ 78'
Substitutes
1
R. Belov
35
D. Kashtelyan
3
M. Druchik
↑ 64'
4
V. Milyutin
↑ 82'
10
V. Dybin
15
I. Monich
⚽ 74' ⚽ 79' ↑ 64'
20
A. Martysevich
47
V. Skomarovskiy
🎯 79' ↑ 78'
69
E. Mashagin
↑ 78'
77
V. Shubovich
BATE II 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
35
V. Zhurba
4
N. Shcherbakov
↓ 72'
5
A. Apanasevich
↓ 58'
8
M. Karpovich
9
M. Tolkach
↓ 46'
10
I. Kuimov
↓ 72'
11
M. Titov
18
E. Starikov
22
M. Gavrilov
🟨 82'
66
V. Kisel
↓ 58'
77
Y. Kuzmenok
Substitutes
16
M. Klyakin
6
G. Potapenko
7
R. Aliyev
↑ 58'
14
E. Shakhnovich
↑ 46'
21
E. Feskov
↑ 72'
27
D. Karshakevich
45
A. Shreyn
↑ 58'
47
E. Machnach
↑ 72'
Last matches: Niva
10.07.26
1.
Niva
Slonim
2
2
D
27.06.26
1.
Niva
Uni Minsk
3
1
W
21.06.26
1.
Niva
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
6
0
W
14.06.26
1.
Niva
Gomel II
2
1
W
07.06.26
1.
Niva
Orsha
1
1
D
01.06.26
1.
Niva
Volna
0
1
L
23.05.26
1.
Niva
Smorgon
3
0
W
17.05.26
1.
Niva
Bumprom
1
0
W
10.05.26
1.
Niva
Minsk II
3
1
W
02.05.26
1.
Niva
Osipovichy
4
2
W
26.04.26
1.
Niva
Lida
1
2
L
19.04.26
1.
Niva
Shakhter Soligorsk
2
2
D
11.04.26
1.
Niva
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1
3
L
04.04.26
1.
Niva
FC Slutsk
1
2
L
14.03.26
Fri
Niva
Neman
0
7
L
04.03.26
Fri
Niva
Baranovichi
2
1
W
07.02.26
Fri
Niva
FC Minsk
1
1
D
Last matches: BATE II
11.07.26
1.
BATE II
Lida
1
4
L
28.06.26
1.
BATE II
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
3
4
L
21.06.26
1.
BATE II
FC Slutsk
0
2
L
14.06.26
1.
BATE II
Dinamo Minsk II
3
2
W
06.06.26
1.
BATE II
Ostrovets FC
0
0
D
01.06.26
1.
BATE II
Slonim
2
5
L
22.05.26
1.
BATE II
Shakhter Soligorsk
1
1
D
17.05.26
1.
BATE II
Uni Minsk
1
1
D
08.05.26
1.
BATE II
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2
3
L
01.05.26
1.
BATE II
Gomel II
4
3
W
25.04.26
1.
BATE II
Orsha
1
2
L
18.04.26
1.
BATE II
Volna
1
1
D
10.04.26
1.
BATE II
Smorgon
1
1
D
04.04.26
1.
BATE II
Bumprom
0
3
L
H2H: Niva vs BATE II
04.07.26
H2H
Niva
BATE II
5
0
W
10.08.25
H2H
Niva
BATE II
5
3
W
06.04.25
H2H
BATE II
Niva
1
1
D
17.11.24
H2H
Niva
BATE II
6
1
W
26.07.24
H2H
BATE II
Niva
1
0
L
Last matches: Niva
21.06.26
1.
Niva
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
6
0
W
07.06.26
1.
Niva
Orsha
1
1
D
23.05.26
1.
Niva
Smorgon
3
0
W
10.05.26
1.
Niva
Minsk II
3
1
W
26.04.26
1.
Niva
Lida
1
2
L
19.04.26
1.
Niva
Shakhter Soligorsk
2
2
D
H2H at home: Niva
04.07.26
H2H
Niva
BATE II
5
0
W
10.08.25
H2H
Niva
BATE II
5
3
W
17.11.24
H2H
Niva
BATE II
6
1
W
Last matches: BATE II
21.06.26
1.
BATE II
FC Slutsk
0
2
L
06.06.26
1.
BATE II
Ostrovets FC
0
0
D
22.05.26
1.
BATE II
Shakhter Soligorsk
1
1
D
17.05.26
1.
BATE II
Uni Minsk
1
1
D
01.05.26
1.
BATE II
Gomel II
4
3
W
18.04.26
1.
BATE II
Volna
1
1
D
04.04.26
1.
BATE II
Bumprom
0
3
L
H2H away: BATE II
04.07.26
H2H
Niva
BATE II
5
0
L
10.08.25
H2H
Niva
BATE II
5
3
L
17.11.24
H2H
Niva
BATE II
6
1
L

Standings

Division 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 11 2 2 32:16 16 35
W D L W W
2 15 10 4 1 37:16 21 34
D W W W W
3 15 8 3 4 27:23 4 27
W D W W W
4 15 8 3 4 28:17 11 27
D L W L D
5
Niva Home
15 8 3 4 35:18 17 27
D W W W W
6 14 7 3 4 29:20 9 24
L W D W L
7 14 7 2 5 23:21 2 23
W W W W W
8 14 7 2 5 29:20 9 23
L L W W D
9 14 6 4 4 29:18 11 22
L L W L W
10 15 6 1 8 21:31 -10 19
L W L L L
11 14 4 4 6 22:20 2 16
W W L L D
12 15 5 1 9 18:31 -13 16
W L W L L
13 14 4 3 7 15:25 -10 15
D W L L L
14 15 2 9 4 18:21 -3 15
D D D L D
15 15 4 3 8 13:24 -11 15
W D L L L
16 15 3 5 7 18:24 -6 14
D L W L W
17 15 2 5 8 20:37 -17 11
L L L L W
18 15 1 1 13 15:47 -32 4
L L L W L
Promotion - Vysshaya Liga
Promotion - Vysshaya Liga (Promotion)
Relegation