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11.09.2026 20:00
Estadio Marcelo Bielsa
Referee: N. Ramirez
Newells Old Boys
Match Timeline
Velez Sarsfield
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
27'
R. Martinez · Assist: E. Gomez
Velez Sarsfield
🔄
59'
E. Mammana ↔ L. Magallan
Velez Sarsfield
🔄
60'
R. Herrera ↔ J. Gomez
Newells Old Boys
🔄
60'
J. Policella ↔ A. Veron
Velez Sarsfield
🟨
62'
Simon Escobar
Velez Sarsfield
⚽
63'
Santiago Solari
Newells Old Boys
🔄
67'
S. Solari ↔ W. Nunez
Newells Old Boys
🔄
80'
R. Aliendro ↔ L. Feler
Velez Sarsfield
🔄
81'
R. Martinez ↔ D. Godoy
Velez Sarsfield
🔄
85'
F. Guch ↔ A. Sonora
Newells Old Boys
🔄
85'
L. Regiardo ↔ I. Ramirez
Newells Old Boys
🔄
88'
M. Lanzini ↔ C. Baeza
Velez Sarsfield
⚽
90'
A. Sonora
Newells Old Boys

Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 93.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
93.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
70.5%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Newells Old Boys Win 44.4%
Draw 6.8%
Velez Sarsfield Win 48.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Newells Old Boys0.86
Velez Sarsfield1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys
WWDLW
24 GF / 36 GA
Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield
WLDWL
35 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
0.96
Average Goals Scored
1.25
1.44
Average Goals Conceded
0.71
13
BTTS Yes
14
9
Over 2.5
7
3.04
Shots on Goal
4.08

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys 25 matches
Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 28 matches
Newells Old Boys Statistic Velez Sarsfield
6 Wins 13
9 Draws 12
10 Losses 3
24 Goals For 35
36 Goals Against 20
0.96 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
1.44 Avg Goals Conceded 0.71
13 BTTS Yes 14
20 Over 1.5 16
9 Over 2.5 7
5 Over 3.5 5
5 Clean Sheets 12
9 Failed To Score 5
3.04 Shots On Goal 4.08
9.21 Total Shots 11.76
3.54 Corners 4.44
42.1% Ball Possession 54.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Velez Sarsfield's more proactive style and Newells Old Boys's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Velez Sarsfield. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Velez Sarsfield carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 28 points while Newells Old Boys sit 14 on 15, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Newells Old Boys Analysis

With 15 points from 16 games and a place of 14, Newells Old Boys still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 3 wins, 6 draws, and 7 defeats with a 15:27 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Juan Ignacio Ramírez (3 goals), Matías Cóccaro (2 goals), Jeronimo Russo (1 goals), with creative support from Jeronimo Russo (2 assists), Walter Mazzantti (1 assists), Facundo Guch (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Velez Sarsfield Analysis

Velez Sarsfield arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 28 points after 16 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses, while the 18:12 goal ratio supports the view of poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they rely heavily on Florián Monzón (3 goals), M. Lanzini (2 goals), Diego Valdés (1 goals), with creative support from Diego Valdés (2 assists), M. Pellegrini (2 assists), T. Aguirre (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Newells Old Boys won 3 times, Velez Sarsfield won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:12 from Newells Old Boys's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.67 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.2%)
Predicted formations: Newells Old Boys 4-2-3-1 / Velez Sarsfield 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Newells Old Boys wins 3, draws 2, Velez Sarsfield wins 7

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
D W L W L
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
D W W W D
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
L D W D W
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
D L L W L
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
D L W D W
6 16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
W D W W W
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
W L L D W
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
L L L L W
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
D W W W L
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
W W D W L
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
W L D L D
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
D D L L D
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
D D D L L
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
L D W D D
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
L D D L D
Knockout Phase