Login Register
🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
17.10.2026 23:30
Sports Illustrated Stadium
Referee: Marcos De Oliveira

New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 71.3%
Odds 1.33
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds 1.40
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.45
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
71.3%
1.33 ▥
BTTS Yes
58.2%
1.40 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.45 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.10 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
7.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
New York Red Bulls Win 41.7%
Draw 29.6%
Toronto FC Win 28.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
New York Red Bulls1.6
Toronto FC1.72
Recent Form (Last 5)
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls
WWDLW
52 GF / 67 GA
Toronto FC Toronto FC
WLDWL
54 GF / 60 GA
Key Stats
1.49
Average Goals Scored
1.59
1.91
Average Goals Conceded
1.76
22
BTTS Yes
26
23
Over 2.5
23
4.86
Shots on Goal
4.48

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 35 matches
Toronto FC Toronto FC 34 matches
New York Red Bulls Statistic Toronto FC
12 Wins 10
6 Draws 13
17 Losses 11
52 Goals For 54
67 Goals Against 60
1.49 Avg Goals Scored 1.59
1.91 Avg Goals Conceded 1.76
22 BTTS Yes 26
30 Over 1.5 30
23 Over 2.5 23
16 Over 3.5 12
5 Clean Sheets 4
9 Failed To Score 6
4.86 Shots On Goal 4.48
13.86 Total Shots 12.28
5.79 Corners 5.03
52.6% Ball Possession 45.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Toronto FC. Toronto FC arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Toronto FC having the stronger overall control.

New York Red Bulls Analysis

From their first 27 matches, New York Red Bulls have collected 33 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Their overall return of 9 wins, 6 draws, and 12 losses with goals at 34:51 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Ruvalcaba (7 goals), Julian Hall (5 goals), Ronald Donkor (2 goals), with creative support from Julian Hall (3 assists), Ronald Donkor (3 assists), E. Forsberg (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Toronto FC Analysis

Toronto FC sit 13 with 29 points after 27 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 6 wins, 11 draws, and 10 defeats with a 39:51 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on J. Sargent (5 goals), D. Sallói (4 goals), Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga (4 goals), with creative support from D. Sallói (4 assists), K. Franklin (2 assists), T. Corbeanu (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, New York Red Bulls won 9 times, Toronto FC won 0 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 28:8 from New York Red Bulls's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (71.3%)
Predicted formations: New York Red Bulls 4-3-3 / Toronto FC 4-4-2
Missing players: New York Red Bulls 1, Toronto FC 4
H2H summary: New York Red Bulls wins 9, draws 6, Toronto FC wins 0

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 20 6 3 63:22 41 66
W W W W D
2 29 14 10 5 70:50 20 52
W W L D D
3 29 15 4 10 48:41 7 49
W L L W W
4 29 14 6 9 52:43 9 48
L W W W L
5 29 13 7 9 51:43 8 46
L W L W D
6 29 13 6 10 59:46 13 45
W W W W W
7 29 11 5 13 54:69 -15 38
D W L L W
8 29 10 6 13 39:54 -15 36
L W L W W
9 28 9 9 10 60:68 -8 36
L W L D D
10 29 8 9 12 42:40 2 33
L L D L W
11 29 7 12 10 44:55 -11 33
D W L L L
12 28 7 12 9 36:47 -11 33
W L D L D
13 29 9 5 15 44:47 -3 32
W L W W L
14 29 8 6 15 36:48 -12 30
W L D W D
15 29 6 6 17 35:59 -24 24
L L W L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)