🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
26.09.2026 23:30
Sports Illustrated Stadium

New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 74.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
74.7%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
80.2%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
New York Red Bulls Win 20.6%
Draw 4.7%
St. Louis City Win 74.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
New York Red Bulls1.47
St. Louis City1.74
Recent Form (Last 5)
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls
WWDLW
47 GF / 61 GA
St. Louis City St. Louis City
WLDWL
49 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
1.47
Average Goals Scored
1.63
1.91
Average Goals Conceded
1.47
20
BTTS Yes
21
20
Over 2.5
17
4.62
Shots on Goal
4.81

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 32 matches
St. Louis City St. Louis City 30 matches
New York Red Bulls Statistic St. Louis City
11 Wins 13
6 Draws 9
15 Losses 8
47 Goals For 49
61 Goals Against 44
1.47 Avg Goals Scored 1.63
1.91 Avg Goals Conceded 1.47
20 BTTS Yes 21
27 Over 1.5 26
20 Over 2.5 17
15 Over 3.5 13
5 Clean Sheets 4
8 Failed To Score 5
4.62 Shots On Goal 4.81
13.15 Total Shots 13.73
5.73 Corners 5.62
52.1% Ball Possession 52%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights St. Louis City's more proactive style and New York Red Bulls's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with New York Red Bulls expected to line up in 4-3-3 and St. Louis City in 3-1-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward St. Louis City having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors St. Louis City. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

New York Red Bulls Analysis

New York Red Bulls are currently 10 in the standings with 30 points from 25 matches. The record of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 33:48 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Jorge Ruvalcaba (7 goals), Julian Hall (5 goals), Ronald Donkor (2 goals), with creative support from Julian Hall (3 assists), Ronald Donkor (3 assists), Emil Forsberg (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

St. Louis City Analysis

St. Louis City approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 41 points after 25 outings. With 11 wins, 8 draws, and 6 defeats plus a goal balance of 42:35, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by S. Becher (3 goals), Marcel Hartel (3 goals), T. Totland (2 goals), with creative support from S. Becher (3 assists), Marcel Hartel (3 assists), T. Totland (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their record of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, New York Red Bulls won 1 times, St. Louis City won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:4 from New York Red Bulls's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.3%)
Predicted formations: New York Red Bulls 4-3-3 / St. Louis City 3-1-4-2
H2H summary: New York Red Bulls wins 1, draws 1, St. Louis City wins 1

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 17 6 3 53:21 32 57
W D L D W
2 26 14 4 8 45:33 12 46
W W W L W
3 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
4 26 12 7 7 47:37 10 43
W D W D W
5 25 11 6 8 45:38 7 39
L L D D D
6 26 10 6 10 50:42 8 36
W W W W W
7 26 10 4 12 46:60 -14 34
L W W W D
8 26 9 6 11 34:48 -14 33
W W L D L
9 25 8 9 8 54:61 -7 33
D D L L D
10 26 8 8 10 39:34 5 32
L W L D D
11 25 6 11 8 31:39 -8 29
L D W D L
12 26 6 11 9 39:49 -10 29
L L W D D
13 26 7 5 14 37:42 -5 26
W L L W L
14 26 7 5 14 30:43 -13 26
W D L D L
15 26 5 6 15 31:53 -22 21
L L L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)