🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
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Sports Illustrated Stadium

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.7%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
New York Red Bulls Win 62.7%
Draw 6.7%
Philadelphia Union Win 30.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
New York Red Bulls1.63
Philadelphia Union1.92
Recent Form (Last 5)
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls
WWDLW
43 GF / 55 GA
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union
WLDWL
52 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1.65
Average Goals Scored
1.79
2.12
Average Goals Conceded
1.59
18
BTTS Yes
18
19
Over 2.5
18
4.8
Shots on Goal
4.92

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 26 matches
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 29 matches
New York Red Bulls Statistic Philadelphia Union
9 Wins 9
4 Draws 7
13 Losses 13
43 Goals For 52
55 Goals Against 46
1.65 Avg Goals Scored 1.79
2.12 Avg Goals Conceded 1.59
18 BTTS Yes 18
24 Over 1.5 23
19 Over 2.5 18
14 Over 3.5 11
2 Clean Sheets 7
6 Failed To Score 6
4.8 Shots On Goal 4.92
13.35 Total Shots 15.92
5.75 Corners 6.04
50.2% Ball Possession 48%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Philadelphia Union look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Philadelphia Union. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with New York Red Bulls expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Philadelphia Union in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Philadelphia Union having the stronger overall control.

New York Red Bulls Analysis

With 25 points from 20 games and a place of 8, New York Red Bulls still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 30:42, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Jorge Ruvalcaba (7 goals), Julian Hall (4 goals), Cade Cowell (2 goals), with creative support from Julian Hall (3 assists), Ronald Donkor (3 assists), Emil Forsberg (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Philadelphia Union Analysis

Philadelphia Union are currently 13 in the standings with 20 points from 20 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses, while the 30:37 goal ratio supports the view of very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Going forward they rely heavily on Milan Iloski (8 goals), Bruno Damiani (3 goals), Danley Jean Jacques (2 goals), with creative support from Frankie Westfield (3 assists), Cavan Sullivan (2 assists), Bruno Damiani (1 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, New York Red Bulls won 1 times, Philadelphia Union won 9 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:23 from New York Red Bulls's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.3%)
Predicted formations: New York Red Bulls 4-3-3 / Philadelphia Union 4-4-2
H2H summary: New York Red Bulls wins 1, draws 5, Philadelphia Union wins 9
Last matches: New York Red Bulls
19.08.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Nashville SC
0
1
L
15.08.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Atlanta United FC
1
2
L
01.08.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Orlando City SC
3
2
W
25.07.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
0
2
L
22.07.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
1
3
L
24.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Sporting Kansas City
2
1
W
16.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
1
1
D
13.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Columbus Crew
3
2
W
09.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Chicago Fire
3
1
W
02.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
FC Dallas
0
2
L
25.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
FC Cincinnati
0
2
L
22.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
DC United
4
4
D
18.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
CF Montreal
1
4
L
11.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Inter Miami
2
2
D
04.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
FC Cincinnati
4
2
W
21.03.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
1
6
L
14.03.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Toronto FC
1
1
D
08.03.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
CF Montreal
0
3
L
28.02.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
New England Revolution
1
0
W
22.02.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Orlando City SC
2
1
W
Last matches: Philadelphia Union
19.08.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
2
2
D
16.08.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
New York City FC
3
2
W
01.08.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Atlanta United FC
3
2
W
25.07.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Seattle Sounders
1
0
W
22.07.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
3
1
W
24.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
4
6
L
16.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Columbus Crew
1
1
D
13.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Orlando City SC
3
4
L
09.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
New England Revolution
1
2
L
02.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Nashville SC
0
0
D
25.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Columbus Crew
0
2
L
22.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Toronto FC
3
3
D
18.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
DC United
0
0
D
11.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
CF Montreal
2
1
W
04.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Charlotte
1
2
L
21.03.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Chicago Fire
1
2
L
19.03.26
CON
Philadelphia Union
Club America
1
1
D
14.03.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Atlanta United FC
1
3
L
10.03.26
CON
Philadelphia Union
Club America
0
1
L
08.03.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
San Jose Earthquakes
0
1
L
H2H: New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union
22.07.26
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
3
1
L
16.08.25
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
1
0
W
13.08.25
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
3
2
L
12.07.25
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
2
0
L
31.08.24
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
0
2
L
06.07.24
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
0
0
D
03.09.23
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
4
1
L
09.08.23
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
1
1
D
06.05.23
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
0
1
L
03.09.22
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
0
2
L
14.05.22
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
1
1
D
20.11.21
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
1
0
L
29.09.21
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
1
1
D
09.07.21
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
1
1
D
16.05.21
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
1
0
L
Last matches: New York Red Bulls
19.08.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Nashville SC
0
1
L
01.08.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Orlando City SC
3
2
W
25.07.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
0
2
L
16.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
1
1
D
13.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Columbus Crew
3
2
W
02.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
FC Dallas
0
2
L
22.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
DC United
4
4
D
04.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
FC Cincinnati
4
2
W
08.03.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
CF Montreal
0
3
L
28.02.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
New England Revolution
1
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
New York Red Bulls
FC Dallas
0
3
L
31.01.26
Fri
New York Red Bulls
Hartford Athletic
5
0
W
24.01.26
Fri
New York Red Bulls
St. Louis City
3
1
W
21.01.26
Fri
New York Red Bulls
Sarasota Paradise
1
3
L
H2H at home: New York Red Bulls
16.08.25
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
1
0
W
31.08.24
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
0
2
L
06.05.23
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
0
1
L
03.09.22
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
0
2
L
29.09.21
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
1
1
D
09.07.21
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
1
1
D
Last matches: Philadelphia Union
16.08.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
New York City FC
3
2
W
24.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
4
6
L
13.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Orlando City SC
3
4
L
09.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
New England Revolution
1
2
L
25.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Columbus Crew
0
2
L
22.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Toronto FC
3
3
D
11.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
CF Montreal
2
1
W
04.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Charlotte
1
2
L
19.03.26
CON
Philadelphia Union
Club America
1
1
D
14.03.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Atlanta United FC
1
3
L
22.02.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
DC United
0
1
L
18.02.26
CON
Philadelphia Union
Defence Force
5
0
W
23.01.26
Fri
Philadelphia Union
FC Nordsjaelland
1
2
L
20.01.26
Fri
Philadelphia Union
Sigma Olomouc
1
1
D
H2H away: Philadelphia Union
16.08.25
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
1
0
L
31.08.24
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
0
2
W
06.05.23
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
0
1
W
03.09.22
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
0
2
W
29.09.21
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
1
1
D
09.07.21
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
1
1
D

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 14 4 2 40:15 25 46
W W D L W
2 20 11 6 3 48:38 10 39
D L D W W
3 19 11 2 6 36:25 11 35
W W W L L
4 20 10 3 7 32:25 7 33
W L L D W
5 20 8 6 6 48:46 2 30
W D W L W
6 20 8 5 7 35:31 4 29
D W L W D
7 20 7 5 8 34:29 5 26
L L D W W
8 20 7 4 9 30:42 -12 25
L L W L L
9 20 5 9 6 27:33 -6 24
L D D W D
10 20 6 3 11 32:50 -18 21
L D L W W
11 20 4 9 7 29:36 -7 21
D W D L D
12 20 5 5 10 28:33 -5 20
L L D W L
13 20 5 5 10 30:37 -7 20
D W W W W
14 20 5 5 10 27:37 -10 20
W D D L L
15 20 5 3 12 23:35 -12 18
W W L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)