🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
--.--.---- --:--
Sports Illustrated Stadium
Referee: V. Rivas
New York Red Bulls
Match Timeline
New York City FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
23'
Raul Gustavo
New York City FC
🟨
24'
Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty
New York Red Bulls
🔄
39'
M. Moralez ↔ A. Perea
New York City FC
44'
J. Ruvalcaba
New York Red Bulls
🔄
46'
H. Wolf ↔ M. Jones
New York City FC
🟨
49'
Keaton Parks
New York City FC
52'
A. Perea · Assist: N. Mercau
New York City FC
🔄
59'
K. Parks ↔ J. Shore
New York City FC
🟨
67'
Jorge Ruvalcaba
New York Red Bulls
🔄
69'
E. Forsberg ↔ G. Berggren
New York Red Bulls
🔄
69'
M. Dos Santos ↔ O. Valencia
New York Red Bulls
🔄
69'
J. Che ↔ T. Parker
New York Red Bulls
🟨
77'
Nico Cavallo
New York City FC
🟨
82'
Dylan Nealis
New York Red Bulls
🔄
85'
J. Ruvalcaba ↔ R. Mosquera
New York Red Bulls
🟨
86'
Tim Parker
New York Red Bulls
🔄
90+1'
N. Mercau ↔ S. Reid
New York City FC
🔄
90+1'
A. Ojeda ↔ A. Farnos
New York City FC

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.8%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
91.3%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
New York Red Bulls Win 55.8%
Draw 10%
New York City FC Win 34.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
New York Red Bulls1.66
New York City FC1.87
Recent Form (Last 5)
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls
WWDLW
35 GF / 43 GA
New York City FC New York City FC
WLDWL
29 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.84
Average Goals Scored
1.61
2.26
Average Goals Conceded
1.39
13
BTTS Yes
10
15
Over 2.5
9
5.15
Shots on Goal
5.08

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 19 matches
New York City FC New York City FC 18 matches
New York Red Bulls Statistic New York City FC
7 Wins 6
3 Draws 5
9 Losses 7
35 Goals For 29
43 Goals Against 25
1.84 Avg Goals Scored 1.61
2.26 Avg Goals Conceded 1.39
13 BTTS Yes 10
18 Over 1.5 16
15 Over 2.5 9
12 Over 3.5 5
2 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 4
5.15 Shots On Goal 5.08
13.85 Total Shots 11.62
6.23 Corners 3.69
53.8% Ball Possession 57.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and New York City FC's more proactive style and New York Red Bulls's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward New York City FC having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors New York City FC.

New York Red Bulls Analysis

With 15 points from 12 games and a place of 9, New York Red Bulls still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 19:28, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through J. Hall (6 goals), J. Ruvalcaba (4 goals), E. M. Choupo-Moting (2 goals), with creative support from Ronald Donkor (4 assists), E. Forsberg (3 assists), J. Hall (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

New York City FC Analysis

With 15 points from 12 games and a place of 7, New York City FC still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 5 defeats with a 22:18 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on N. Mercau (8 goals), H. Wolf (5 goals), A. Ojeda (3 goals), with creative support from M. Moralez (6 assists), A. Ojeda (3 assists), N. Mercau (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, New York Red Bulls won 6 times, New York City FC won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:19 from New York Red Bulls's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90%)
Predicted formations: New York Red Bulls 4-2-3-1 / New York City FC 4-2-3-1
Missing players: New York Red Bulls 3, New York City FC 5
H2H summary: New York Red Bulls wins 6, draws 2, New York City FC wins 7
Stats
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls
New York City FC New York City FC
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
4
9 Corner Kicks 3
16 Fouls 10
0 Offsides 3
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Goal 5
3 Shots off Goal 5
4 Blocked Shots 4
11 Shots insidebox 10
1 Shots outsidebox 4
3 Goalkeeper Saves 4
346 Total passes 476
282 Passes accurate 397
2.41 expected_goals 1.73
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

New York City FC
Formation
New York Red Bulls
M. Freese
M. Freese
T. Gray
T. Gray
Thiago Martins
Thiago Martins
Raul Gustavo
Raul Gustavo
N. Cavallo
N. Cavallo
K. Parks
K. Parks
K. Trewin
K. Trewin
A. Ojeda
A. Ojeda
M. Moralez
M. Moralez
H. Wolf
H. Wolf
N. Mercau
🎯
N. Mercau
E. Horvath
E. Horvath
J. Marshall-Rutty
J. Marshall-Rutty
J. Che
J. Che
D. Nealis
D. Nealis
M. Dos Santos
M. Dos Santos
R. Donkor
R. Donkor
A. Mehmeti
A. Mehmeti
E. Forsberg
E. Forsberg
C. Cowell
C. Cowell
J. Hall
J. Hall
J. Ruvalcaba
J. Ruvalcaba
New York City FC 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
49
M. Freese
G
24
T. Gray
D
13
Thiago Martins
D
34
Raul Gustavo
🟨 23'
D
2
N. Cavallo
🟨 77'
D
55
K. Parks
↓ 59' 🟨 49'
M
5
K. Trewin
M
26
A. Ojeda
↓ 90+1'
M
10
M. Moralez
↓ 39'
M
17
H. Wolf
↓ 46'
M
7
N. Mercau
🎯 52' ↓ 90+1'
F
Substitutes
30
T. Romero
G
8
A. Perea
⚽ 52' ↑ 39'
M
29
M. Carrizo
M
88
M. Jones
↑ 46'
F
19
S. Tanasijevic
D
32
J. Shore
↑ 59'
M
99
S. Reid
↑ 90+1'
F
87
A. Farnos
↑ 90+1'
F
15
K. Pierre
M
New York Red Bulls 4-3-3 (estimated)
Starting XI
34
E. Horvath
G
3
J. Marshall-Rutty
🟨 24'
D
2
J. Che
↓ 69'
D
12
D. Nealis
🟨 82'
D
56
M. Dos Santos
↓ 69'
D
48
R. Donkor
M
15
A. Mehmeti
M
10
E. Forsberg
↓ 69'
M
7
C. Cowell
F
16
J. Hall
F
11
J. Ruvalcaba
⚽ 44' ↓ 85' 🟨 67'
F
Substitutes
77
J. McCarthy
G
4
G. Berggren
↑ 69'
M
33
R. Mitchell
F
79
R. Mosquera
↑ 85'
F
5
O. Valencia
↑ 69'
D
37
M. Sofo
F
39
N. Benedetti
M
26
T. Parker
↑ 69' 🟨 86'
D
14
J. Bazan
D
Last matches: New York Red Bulls
22.07.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
1
3
L
24.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Sporting Kansas City
2
1
W
13.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Columbus Crew
3
2
W
09.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Chicago Fire
3
1
W
02.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
FC Dallas
0
2
L
25.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
FC Cincinnati
0
2
L
22.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
DC United
4
4
D
18.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
CF Montreal
1
4
L
11.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Inter Miami
2
2
D
04.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
FC Cincinnati
4
2
W
21.03.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
1
6
L
14.03.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Toronto FC
1
1
D
08.03.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
CF Montreal
0
3
L
28.02.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
New England Revolution
1
0
W
22.02.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Orlando City SC
2
1
W
14.02.26
Fri
New York Red Bulls
Houston Dynamo
2
3
L
11.02.26
Fri
New York Red Bulls
Atlanta United FC
2
3
L
07.02.26
Fri
New York Red Bulls
FC Dallas
0
3
L
31.01.26
Fri
New York Red Bulls
Hartford Athletic
5
0
W
24.01.26
Fri
New York Red Bulls
St. Louis City
3
1
W
Last matches: New York City FC
22.07.26
Maj
New York City FC
Columbus Crew
2
1
W
24.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
Nashville SC
1
2
L
13.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
Charlotte
1
0
W
10.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
Columbus Crew
3
0
W
03.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
DC United
0
2
L
25.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
CF Montreal
0
1
L
22.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
4
4
D
18.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
Charlotte
1
2
L
11.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
2
L
04.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
St. Louis City
1
1
D
22.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Inter Miami
2
3
L
14.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Colorado Rapids
3
1
W
07.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Orlando City SC
5
0
W
01.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union
2
1
W
23.02.26
Maj
New York City FC
Los Angeles Galaxy
1
1
D
14.02.26
Fri
New York City FC
San Jose Earthquakes
0
2
L
11.02.26
Fri
New York City FC
Sporting Kansas City
1
2
L
08.02.26
Fri
New York City FC
Los Angeles FC
1
1
D
01.02.26
Fri
New York City FC
Austin
2
0
W
23.01.26
Fri
New York City FC
Tampa Bay Rowdies
2
2
D
H2H: New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC
16.05.26
H2H
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
1
1
D
29.04.26
H2H
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
1
3
L
27.09.25
H2H
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
2
3
L
17.05.25
H2H
New York City FC
New York Red Bulls
2
0
L
23.11.24
H2H
New York City FC
New York Red Bulls
0
2
W
28.09.24
H2H
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
1
5
L
18.05.24
H2H
New York City FC
New York Red Bulls
2
1
L
16.09.23
H2H
New York City FC
New York Red Bulls
0
0
D
04.08.23
H2H
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
1
0
W
13.05.23
H2H
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
1
0
W
17.09.22
H2H
New York City FC
New York Red Bulls
2
0
L
17.07.22
H2H
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
0
1
L
23.06.22
H2H
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
3
0
W
17.10.21
H2H
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
1
0
W
26.09.21
H2H
New York City FC
New York Red Bulls
0
1
W
Last matches: New York Red Bulls
13.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Columbus Crew
3
2
W
02.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
FC Dallas
0
2
L
22.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
DC United
4
4
D
04.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
FC Cincinnati
4
2
W
08.03.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
CF Montreal
0
3
L
28.02.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
New England Revolution
1
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
New York Red Bulls
FC Dallas
0
3
L
31.01.26
Fri
New York Red Bulls
Hartford Athletic
5
0
W
24.01.26
Fri
New York Red Bulls
St. Louis City
3
1
W
21.01.26
Fri
New York Red Bulls
Sarasota Paradise
1
3
L
H2H at home: New York Red Bulls
16.05.26
H2H
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
1
1
D
29.04.26
H2H
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
1
3
L
27.09.25
H2H
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
2
3
L
28.09.24
H2H
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
1
5
L
04.08.23
H2H
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
1
0
W
13.05.23
H2H
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
1
0
W
17.07.22
H2H
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
0
1
L
23.06.22
H2H
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
3
0
W
17.10.21
H2H
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
1
0
W
Last matches: New York City FC
22.07.26
Maj
New York City FC
Columbus Crew
2
1
W
24.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
Nashville SC
1
2
L
13.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
Charlotte
1
0
W
25.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
CF Montreal
0
1
L
11.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
2
L
01.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union
2
1
W
23.02.26
Maj
New York City FC
Los Angeles Galaxy
1
1
D
14.02.26
Fri
New York City FC
San Jose Earthquakes
0
2
L
11.02.26
Fri
New York City FC
Sporting Kansas City
1
2
L
08.02.26
Fri
New York City FC
Los Angeles FC
1
1
D
H2H away: New York City FC
16.05.26
H2H
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
1
1
D
29.04.26
H2H
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
1
3
W
27.09.25
H2H
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
2
3
W
28.09.24
H2H
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
1
5
W
04.08.23
H2H
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
1
0
L
13.05.23
H2H
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
1
0
L
17.07.22
H2H
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
0
1
W
23.06.22
H2H
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
3
0
L
17.10.21
H2H
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
1
0
L

Missing Players

New York Red Bulls 3 missing
-
A. Marcucci
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
C. Harper
Questionable Muscle Injury
OUT
-
E. M. Choupo-Moting
Questionable Knee Injury
OUT
New York City FC 5 missing
-
A. Martinez
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
D. Baiera
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
K. O'Toole
Missing Fixture Leg Injury
OUT
-
A. O'Neill
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
Talles Magno
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT