🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
16.05.2026 23:30
Sports Illustrated Stadium
Referee: Victor Rivas, USA
New York Red Bulls
Match Timeline
New York City FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
23'
Raul Gustavo
New York City FC
🟨
24'
Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty
New York Red Bulls
🔄
39'
M. Moralez ↔ A. Perea
New York City FC
44'
J. Ruvalcaba
New York Red Bulls
🔄
46'
H. Wolf ↔ M. Jones
New York City FC
🟨
49'
Keaton Parks
New York City FC
52'
A. Perea · Assist: N. Mercau
New York City FC
🔄
59'
K. Parks ↔ J. Shore
New York City FC
🟨
67'
Jorge Ruvalcaba
New York Red Bulls
🔄
69'
E. Forsberg ↔ G. Berggren
New York Red Bulls
🔄
69'
M. Dos Santos ↔ O. Valencia
New York Red Bulls
🔄
69'
J. Che ↔ T. Parker
New York Red Bulls
🟨
77'
Nico Cavallo
New York City FC
🟨
82'
Dylan Nealis
New York Red Bulls
🔄
85'
J. Ruvalcaba ↔ R. Mosquera
New York Red Bulls
🟨
86'
Tim Parker
New York Red Bulls
🔄
90+1'
N. Mercau ↔ S. Reid
New York City FC
🔄
90+1'
A. Ojeda ↔ A. Farnos
New York City FC

New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.8%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
91.3%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
New York Red Bulls Win 55.8%
Draw 10%
New York City FC Win 34.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
New York Red Bulls1.66
New York City FC1.87
Recent Form (Last 5)
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls
WWDLW
35 GF / 43 GA
New York City FC New York City FC
WLDWL
29 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.84
Average Goals Scored
1.61
2.26
Average Goals Conceded
1.39
13
BTTS Yes
10
15
Over 2.5
9
5.15
Shots on Goal
5.08

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 19 matches
New York City FC New York City FC 18 matches
New York Red Bulls Statistic New York City FC
7 Wins 6
3 Draws 5
9 Losses 7
35 Goals For 29
43 Goals Against 25
1.84 Avg Goals Scored 1.61
2.26 Avg Goals Conceded 1.39
13 BTTS Yes 10
18 Over 1.5 16
15 Over 2.5 9
12 Over 3.5 5
2 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 4
5.15 Shots On Goal 5.08
13.85 Total Shots 11.62
6.23 Corners 3.69
53.8% Ball Possession 57.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and New York City FC's more proactive style and New York Red Bulls's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward New York City FC having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors New York City FC.

New York Red Bulls Analysis

With 15 points from 12 games and a place of 9, New York Red Bulls still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 19:28, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through J. Hall (6 goals), J. Ruvalcaba (4 goals), E. M. Choupo-Moting (2 goals), with creative support from Ronald Donkor (4 assists), E. Forsberg (3 assists), J. Hall (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

New York City FC Analysis

With 15 points from 12 games and a place of 7, New York City FC still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 5 defeats with a 22:18 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on N. Mercau (8 goals), H. Wolf (5 goals), A. Ojeda (3 goals), with creative support from M. Moralez (6 assists), A. Ojeda (3 assists), N. Mercau (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, New York Red Bulls won 6 times, New York City FC won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:19 from New York Red Bulls's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90%)
Predicted formations: New York Red Bulls 4-2-3-1 / New York City FC 4-2-3-1
Missing players: New York Red Bulls 3, New York City FC 5
H2H summary: New York Red Bulls wins 6, draws 2, New York City FC wins 7

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 16 6 3 50:21 29 54
D L D W W
2 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
3 25 13 4 8 41:31 10 43
W W L W D
4 25 11 7 7 45:36 9 40
D W D W W
5 24 11 6 7 45:35 10 39
L D D D D
6 25 10 4 11 44:56 -12 34
W W W D W
7 25 9 6 10 46:39 7 33
W W W W D
8 25 8 8 9 39:33 6 32
W L D D D
9 24 8 8 8 52:59 -7 32
D L L D W
10 25 8 6 11 33:48 -15 30
W L D L D
11 24 6 11 7 30:37 -7 29
D W D L L
12 25 6 11 8 38:46 -8 29
L W D D W
13 25 6 5 14 35:42 -7 23
L L W L L
14 25 6 5 14 29:43 -14 23
D L D L W
15 25 5 6 14 31:51 -20 21
L L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)