🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
22.08.2026 23:30
Sports Illustrated Stadium
Referee: S. Demianchuk
New York Red Bulls
Match Timeline
Chicago Fire
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
17'
Leonardo Barroso
Chicago Fire
38'
M. Haile-Selassie · Assist: V. Radojevic
Chicago Fire
🔄
46'
M. Dos Santos ↔ J. Marshall-Rutty
New York Red Bulls
🔄
46'
M. Jimenez ↔ J. Ruvalcaba
New York Red Bulls
🔄
46'
C. Cowell ↔ M. Sofo
New York Red Bulls
🔄
56'
D. Nealis ↔ O. Valencia
New York Red Bulls
🔄
57'
E. Forsberg ↔ E. M. Choupo-Moting
New York Red Bulls
🟨
64'
Joel Waterman
Chicago Fire
🔄
65'
S. Williams ↔ A. Saletros
Chicago Fire
🔄
65'
P. Zinckernagel ↔ R. Lewandowski
Chicago Fire
🟨
66'
Mohammed Sofo
New York Red Bulls
🔄
77'
V. Radojevic ↔ J. Dean
Chicago Fire
🔄
85'
J. Hall ↔ C. Harper
New York Red Bulls
85'
C. Harper · Assist: E. M. Choupo-Moting
New York Red Bulls
🔄
86'
M. Pineda ↔ D. D'Avilla
Chicago Fire
🔄
87'
R. Lod ↔ J. Elliott
Chicago Fire
🔄
87'
J. Bamba ↔ P. Dithejane
Chicago Fire

New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 49.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
49.8%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
New York Red Bulls Win 34.4%
Draw 15.8%
Chicago Fire Win 49.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
New York Red Bulls1.52
Chicago Fire1.93
Recent Form (Last 5)
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls
WWDLW
43 GF / 55 GA
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire
WLDWL
45 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
1.65
Average Goals Scored
1.8
2.12
Average Goals Conceded
1.32
18
BTTS Yes
16
19
Over 2.5
18
4.95
Shots on Goal
4.95

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 26 matches
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 25 matches
New York Red Bulls Statistic Chicago Fire
9 Wins 13
4 Draws 5
13 Losses 7
43 Goals For 45
55 Goals Against 33
1.65 Avg Goals Scored 1.8
2.12 Avg Goals Conceded 1.32
18 BTTS Yes 16
24 Over 1.5 19
19 Over 2.5 18
14 Over 3.5 10
2 Clean Sheets 9
6 Failed To Score 3
4.95 Shots On Goal 4.95
13.9 Total Shots 13.74
6.1 Corners 4.26
53.2% Ball Possession 51.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Chicago Fire's more proactive style and New York Red Bulls's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Chicago Fire. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with New York Red Bulls expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Chicago Fire in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Chicago Fire having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

New York Red Bulls Analysis

So far, New York Red Bulls have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 25 points from 18 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, while the 29:39 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Jorge Ruvalcaba (7 goals), Julian Hall (4 goals), Cade Cowell (2 goals), with creative support from Julian Hall (3 assists), Ronald Donkor (3 assists), Emil Forsberg (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Chicago Fire Analysis

Chicago Fire come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 29 points after 17 matches. The return of 9 wins, 2 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 32:23, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Hugo Cuypers (8 goals), Philip Zinckernagel (5 goals), Maren Haile-Selassie (3 goals), with creative support from Philip Zinckernagel (6 assists), Maren Haile-Selassie (3 assists), Jonathan Bamba (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, New York Red Bulls won 4 times, Chicago Fire won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:19 from New York Red Bulls's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.2%)
Predicted formations: New York Red Bulls 4-3-3 / Chicago Fire 4-4-2
Missing players: New York Red Bulls 2, Chicago Fire 4
H2H summary: New York Red Bulls wins 4, draws 6, Chicago Fire wins 5

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 17 6 3 53:21 32 57
W D L D W
2 26 14 4 8 45:33 12 46
W W W L W
3 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
4 26 12 7 7 47:37 10 43
W D W D W
5 25 11 6 8 45:38 7 39
L L D D D
6 26 10 6 10 50:42 8 36
W W W W W
7 26 10 4 12 46:60 -14 34
L W W W D
8 26 9 6 11 34:48 -14 33
W W L D L
9 25 8 9 8 54:61 -7 33
D D L L D
10 26 8 8 10 39:34 5 32
L W L D D
11 25 6 11 8 31:39 -8 29
L D W D L
12 26 6 11 9 39:49 -10 29
L L W D D
13 26 7 5 14 37:42 -5 26
W L L W L
14 26 7 5 14 30:43 -13 26
W D L D L
15 26 5 6 15 31:53 -22 21
L L L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)