🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
03.05.2026 19:00
Citi Field
Referee: Ismail Elfath, USA
New York City FC
Match Timeline
DC United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
26'
Keisuke Kurokawa
DC United
29'
L. Munteanu
DC United
🔄
36'
A. O'Neill ↔ A. Perea
New York City FC
🟨
45+3'
Silvan Hefti
DC United
🔄
60'
J. Stroud ↔ A. Herrera
DC United
🔄
60'
J. Hopkins ↔ N. Markovic
DC United
🔄
63'
M. Jones ↔ H. Wolf
New York City FC
🔄
63'
S. Tanasijevic ↔ K. Parks
New York City FC
🟨
70'
João Peglow
DC United
75'
L. Munteanu
DC United
🔄
78'
L. Munteanu ↔ J. Murrell
DC United
🟨
80'
Nicolás Fernández
New York City FC
🔄
81'
Raul Gustavo ↔ J. Shore
New York City FC
🔄
81'
A. Ojeda ↔ S. Reid
New York City FC
🔄
89'
Peglow ↔ C. Antley
DC United
🟨
90+3'
Jacob Murrell
DC United

New York City FC vs DC United Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 84%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
84%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
73.3%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
New York City FC Win 45.7%
Draw 16%
DC United Win 38.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
New York City FC1.59
DC United1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
New York City FC New York City FC
WWDLW
25 GF / 23 GA
DC United DC United
WLDWL
12 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.67
Average Goals Scored
0.92
1.53
Average Goals Conceded
1.46
10
BTTS Yes
5
8
Over 2.5
6
5.5
Shots on Goal
3.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

New York City FC New York City FC 15 matches
DC United DC United 13 matches
New York City FC Statistic DC United
4 Wins 3
5 Draws 5
6 Losses 5
25 Goals For 12
23 Goals Against 19
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 0.92
1.53 Avg Goals Conceded 1.46
10 BTTS Yes 5
14 Over 1.5 6
8 Over 2.5 6
5 Over 3.5 4
2 Clean Sheets 5
3 Failed To Score 7
5.5 Shots On Goal 3.2
12.9 Total Shots 10.6
3.8 Corners 4.2
57.5% Ball Possession 41.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with New York City FC's more proactive style and DC United's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. New York City FC have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors DC United. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with New York City FC expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and DC United in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward DC United having the stronger overall control.

New York City FC Analysis

With 12 points from 10 games and a place of 7, New York City FC still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 19:16 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on N. Mercau (8 goals), A. Ojeda (3 goals), H. Wolf (2 goals), with creative support from M. Moralez (6 assists), A. Ojeda (2 assists), H. Wolf (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

DC United Analysis

So far, DC United have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 12 points from 10 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, while the 11:15 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on T. Baribo (6 goals), Jackson Hopkins (2 goals), K. Rowles (1 goals), with creative support from Peglow (3 assists), Jackson Hopkins (1 assists), J. Murrell (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, New York City FC won 7 times, DC United won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:16 from New York City FC's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84%)
Predicted formations: New York City FC 4-2-3-1 / DC United 4-4-2
Missing players: New York City FC 5, DC United 4
H2H summary: New York City FC wins 7, draws 3, DC United wins 5

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 16 6 3 50:21 29 54
D L D W W
2 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
3 25 13 4 8 41:31 10 43
W W L W D
4 25 11 7 7 45:36 9 40
D W D W W
5 24 11 6 7 45:35 10 39
L D D D D
6 25 10 4 11 44:56 -12 34
W W W D W
7 25 9 6 10 46:39 7 33
W W W W D
8 25 8 8 9 39:33 6 32
W L D D D
9 24 8 8 8 52:59 -7 32
D L L D W
10 25 8 6 11 33:48 -15 30
W L D L D
11 24 6 11 7 30:37 -7 29
D W D L L
12 25 6 11 8 38:46 -8 29
L W D D W
13 25 6 5 14 35:42 -7 23
L L W L L
14 25 6 5 14 29:43 -14 23
D L D L W
15 25 5 6 14 31:51 -20 21
L L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)