🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
10.05.2026 20:30
Yankee Stadium
Referee: Rubiel Vazquez, USA
New York City FC
Match Timeline
Columbus Crew
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
12'
H. Wolf · Assist: A. Ojeda
New York City FC
16'
H. Wolf · Assist: N. Mercau
New York City FC
🟨
63'
Taha Habroune
Columbus Crew
66'
H. Wolf · Assist: N. Mercau
New York City FC
🔄
68'
T. Habroune ↔ D. Gazdag
Columbus Crew
🔄
68'
A. Gomes ↔ S. Bangoura
Columbus Crew
🔄
68'
S. Moreira ↔ M. Farsi
Columbus Crew
🔄
79'
H. Picard ↔ N. Akhundzade
Columbus Crew
🔄
79'
D. Chambost ↔ A. Sejdic
Columbus Crew
🔄
85'
H. Wolf ↔ M. Jones
New York City FC
🔄
85'
K. Parks ↔ J. Shore
New York City FC
🔄
88'
A. Ojeda ↔ A. Farnos
New York City FC
🔄
90+1'
M. Moralez ↔ M. Carrizo
New York City FC
🔄
90+2'
N. Mercau ↔ S. Reid
New York City FC

New York City FC vs Columbus Crew Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Draw or Away
Probability 77.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Draw or Away
77.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
17.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
91.9%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
New York City FC Win 22.4%
Draw 38.5%
Columbus Crew Win 39.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
New York City FC1.49
Columbus Crew1.55
Recent Form (Last 5)
New York City FC New York City FC
WWDLW
25 GF / 25 GA
Columbus Crew Columbus Crew
WLDWL
20 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.56
Average Goals Scored
1.54
1.56
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
10
BTTS Yes
9
8
Over 2.5
8
5.36
Shots on Goal
4.55

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

New York City FC New York City FC 16 matches
Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 13 matches
New York City FC Statistic Columbus Crew
4 Wins 4
5 Draws 3
7 Losses 6
25 Goals For 20
25 Goals Against 18
1.56 Avg Goals Scored 1.54
1.56 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
10 BTTS Yes 9
15 Over 1.5 10
8 Over 2.5 8
5 Over 3.5 5
2 Clean Sheets 2
4 Failed To Score 3
5.36 Shots On Goal 4.55
12.55 Total Shots 12.27
4 Corners 5.91
58.9% Ball Possession 55.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with New York City FC's more proactive style and Columbus Crew's more cautious structure suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. New York City FC have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with New York City FC expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Columbus Crew in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Columbus Crew having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Columbus Crew. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

New York City FC Analysis

With 12 points from 11 games and a place of 9, New York City FC still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 5 defeats with a 19:18 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on N. Mercau (8 goals), A. Ojeda (3 goals), H. Wolf (2 goals), with creative support from M. Moralez (6 assists), A. Ojeda (2 assists), H. Wolf (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Columbus Crew Analysis

So far, Columbus Crew have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 12 points from 11 matches. The record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 16:16 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through W. Abou Ali (5 goals), D. Rossi (4 goals), M. Arfsten (3 goals), with creative support from M. Arfsten (4 assists), T. Habroune (2 assists), W. Abou Ali (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, New York City FC won 5 times, Columbus Crew won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:22 from New York City FC's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: Draw or Away
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (77.6%)
Predicted formations: New York City FC 4-2-3-1 / Columbus Crew 4-4-2
Missing players: New York City FC 4, Columbus Crew 3
H2H summary: New York City FC wins 5, draws 4, Columbus Crew wins 6

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 16 6 3 50:21 29 54
D L D W W
2 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
3 25 13 4 8 41:31 10 43
W W L W D
4 25 11 7 7 45:36 9 40
D W D W W
5 24 11 6 7 45:35 10 39
L D D D D
6 25 10 4 11 44:56 -12 34
W W W D W
7 25 9 6 10 46:39 7 33
W W W W D
8 25 8 8 9 39:33 6 32
W L D D D
9 24 8 8 8 52:59 -7 32
D L L D W
10 25 8 6 11 33:48 -15 30
W L D L D
11 24 6 11 7 30:37 -7 29
D W D L L
12 25 6 11 8 38:46 -8 29
L W D D W
13 25 6 5 14 35:42 -7 23
L L W L L
14 25 6 5 14 29:43 -14 23
D L D L W
15 25 5 6 14 31:51 -20 21
L L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)