🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
22.07.2026 23:30
Gillette Stadium
Referee: S. Demianchuk
New England Revolution
Match Timeline
Toronto FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
E. Aristizabal ↔ J. Sargent
Toronto FC
🟨
56'
Matt Polster
New England Revolution
🔄
60'
G. Yow ↔ M. Zambrano
New England Revolution
🔄
64'
J. Vilsaint ↔ T. Corbeanu
Toronto FC
🔄
64'
D. Kerr ↔ M. Henry
Toronto FC
🔄
71'
R. Chukwu ↔ Z. Monlouis
Toronto FC
🔄
73'
M. Polster ↔ L. Langoni
New England Revolution
🔄
73'
D. Turgeman ↔ W. Harris
New England Revolution
🔄
86'
E. Kohler ↔ B. Ceballos
New England Revolution
🔄
86'
A. Yusuf ↔ J. Yueill
New England Revolution
🟨
90+3'
Brooklyn Raines
New England Revolution

New England Revolution vs Toronto FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
78.8%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
New England Revolution Win 78.8%
Draw 5%
Toronto FC Win 16.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
New England Revolution1.88
Toronto FC1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
New England Revolution New England Revolution
WWDLW
38 GF / 25 GA
Toronto FC Toronto FC
WLDWL
32 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
2
Average Goals Scored
1.6
1.32
Average Goals Conceded
1.7
12
BTTS Yes
15
13
Over 2.5
13
3.86
Shots on Goal
4.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

New England Revolution New England Revolution 19 matches
Toronto FC Toronto FC 20 matches
New England Revolution Statistic Toronto FC
10 Wins 6
2 Draws 7
7 Losses 7
38 Goals For 32
25 Goals Against 34
2 Avg Goals Scored 1.6
1.32 Avg Goals Conceded 1.7
12 BTTS Yes 15
15 Over 1.5 17
13 Over 2.5 13
6 Over 3.5 8
4 Clean Sheets 3
3 Failed To Score 3
3.86 Shots On Goal 4.33
10.07 Total Shots 11.6
3.71 Corners 5.47
49.1% Ball Possession 47.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by New England Revolution's more proactive style and Toronto FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Toronto FC. New England Revolution arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 25 points compared to Toronto FC in 13 on 14, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Toronto FC arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

New England Revolution Analysis

New England Revolution come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 25 points after 14 matches. The return of 8 wins, 1 draws, and 5 defeats, together with goals at 22:18, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Carles Gil (5 goals), Luca Langoni (3 goals), P. Miller (3 goals), with creative support from Luca Langoni (6 assists), Dor Turgeman (4 assists), Carles Gil (3 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 7 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Toronto FC Analysis

With 14 points from 14 games and a place of 13, Toronto FC still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 5 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 22:29 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on D. Salloi (4 goals), Emilio Aristizábal (3 goals), J. Sargent (3 goals), with creative support from D. Salloi (3 assists), A. Coello (3 assists), Jonathan Osorio (3 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, New England Revolution won 4 times, Toronto FC won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:14 from New England Revolution's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95%)
Predicted formations: New England Revolution 4-2-3-1 / Toronto FC 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: New England Revolution wins 4, draws 6, Toronto FC wins 5

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 16 5 2 47:17 30 53
D W W W W
2 23 12 7 4 58:43 15 43
D W L D L
3 22 11 5 6 43:32 11 38
D D D W W
4 23 11 4 8 37:29 8 37
L W D W L
5 23 10 6 7 40:32 8 36
D W W D W
6 22 8 7 7 49:51 -2 31
L D W D W
7 23 7 8 8 36:31 5 29
D D D L L
8 23 8 4 11 38:54 -16 28
W D W L D
9 23 7 6 10 36:39 -3 27
W W D D W
10 23 7 6 10 32:46 -14 27
D L D L L
11 23 5 11 7 36:42 -6 26
D D W D W
12 22 5 10 7 28:36 -8 25
D L L D D
13 23 6 5 12 34:39 -5 23
W L L L L
14 23 6 4 13 27:40 -13 22
D L W W W
15 23 5 6 12 30:48 -18 21
L L D W D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)