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24.10.2026 14:00
FT
2 - 0
King Khalid Sport City Stadium
Referee: Khalid Al-Ahmari, Saudi Arabia
NEOM
Match Timeline
Abha
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
15'
S. Benrahma · Assist: A. Lacazette
NEOM
VAR
20'
Nathan Zeze
NEOM
🟨
49'
Khaled Al Shamrani
Abha
⚽
50'
A. Lacazette · Assist: S. Benrahma
NEOM
🔄
58'
K. Al Shamrani ↔ S. Al Johani
Abha
🔄
58'
M. Batshuayi ↔ A. Gory
Abha
🔄
71'
G. Masouras ↔ M. Abu Taha
NEOM
🔄
71'
A. Al Oyayari ↔ A. Al Hassan
NEOM
🔄
71'
F. Al Ghamdi ↔ N. Fekir
Abha
🔄
71'
M. Al Dawsari ↔ M. Y. Dawran M.
Abha
🟨
79'
Safwan Aljohani
Abha
🔄
83'
S. Benrahma ↔ M. Al Saad
NEOM
🔄
83'
K. Al Absi ↔ H. Camara
NEOM
🔄
84'
A. Al Fahad ↔ K. Al Qahtani
Abha

NEOM vs Abha Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
58.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
70.8%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
NEOM Win 88%
Draw 5.2%
Abha Win 6.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
NEOM1.48
Abha0.74
Recent Form (Last 5)
NEOM NEOM
L L D W W
7 GF / 5 GA
Abha Abha
L D L L L
4 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
0.7
0.8
Average Goals Conceded
1.7
4
BTTS Yes
6
4
Over 2.5
6
3.8
Shots on Goal
3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

NEOM NEOM 15 matches
Abha Abha 10 matches
NEOM Statistic Abha
8 Wins 0
2 Draws 3
5 Losses 7
20 Goals For 7
12 Goals Against 17
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 0.7
0.8 Avg Goals Conceded 1.7
4 BTTS Yes 6
9 Over 1.5 7
4 Over 2.5 6
2 Over 3.5 2
6 Clean Sheets 2
6 Failed To Score 4
3.8 Shots On Goal 3
12.5 Total Shots 9.38
4.8 Corners 2.88
54.4% Ball Possession 44.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by NEOM's more proactive style and Abha's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. NEOM arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 16 points compared to Abha in 18 on 2, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with NEOM expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Abha in 4-5-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Abha having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Abha. Abha arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

NEOM Analysis

NEOM come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 16 points after 8 matches. With 5 wins, 1 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 14:7, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by A. Lacazette (5 goals), A. Koné (4 goals), S. Benrahma (2 goals), with creative support from Haroune Camara (2 assists), Khalil Al Absi (2 assists), A. Lacazette (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Abha Analysis

With 2 points from 8 games and a place of 18, Abha still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 6 defeats with a 6:15 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Gory (2 goals), Mohammed Al Dossary (1 goals), N. Fekir (1 goals), with creative support from Mohammed Al Dossary (1 assists), Safwan Saud (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, NEOM won 1 times, Abha won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:2 from NEOM's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.8%)
Predicted formations: NEOM 4-4-2 / Abha 4-5-1
H2H summary: NEOM wins 1, draws 1, Abha wins 0

Standings

Saudi Professional League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 10 0 1 32:9 23 30
W W W W W
2 12 9 1 2 32:12 20 28
W L W W W
3 11 9 1 1 28:11 17 28
W W W W D
4 11 7 3 1 21:11 10 24
D W W L W
5
NEOM Home
12 7 1 4 18:10 8 22
W W L L D
6 11 7 0 4 28:19 9 21
L W W W W
7 12 5 4 3 18:17 1 19
D W L W D
8 12 4 3 5 10:13 -3 15
L L W D L
9 12 3 6 3 14:19 -5 15
W L W W D
10 11 3 5 3 20:15 5 14
W W D W D
11 11 3 3 5 17:26 -9 12
L L L L L
12 11 3 3 5 11:25 -14 12
L W L D W
13 12 2 5 5 16:20 -4 11
W D L L D
14 12 2 4 6 14:20 -6 10
L D L L D
15 12 2 4 6 13:24 -11 10
L W L D W
16 12 1 3 8 10:25 -15 6
L L L W L
17 12 0 5 7 6:20 -14 5
D L L D L
18
Abha Away
11 0 3 8 7:19 -12 3
D L L L D
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2
Promotion - Gulf Club Champions League
Relegation - Division 1