MEXICO LIGA MX
12.09.2026 01:00
Estadio Victoria
Necaxa
Match Timeline
Puebla
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
45+1'
Juan Pablo Vargas
Puebla
🟨
45+1'
Raúl Martínez
Necaxa
🟨
45+1'
Fernando Monarrez
Puebla
🔄
45'
Owen González ↔ Kevin Ante
Necaxa
🔄
45'
Mauro Zaleta ↔ Miguel Rodriguez
Necaxa
🔄
45'
Omar Moreno ↔ Ignacio Maestro
Puebla
🔄
45'
Fernando Monarrez ↔ Oscar Villa
Puebla
🟨
49'
Carlos Baltazar
Puebla
🔄
62'
Kevin Velasco ↔ Mathías Adrián Tomás Borges
Puebla
🔄
68'
Matias Espindola ↔ Juan Torres
Necaxa
🔄
75'
Lorenzo Faravelli ↔ Danny Leyva
Necaxa
🔄
81'
Brayan Garnica ↔ Lucas Camilo Azevedo da Silva
Puebla
🔄
86'
Pedro Pedraza ↔ Juan Valencia
Necaxa

Necaxa vs Puebla Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 46.6%
Odds 3.57
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.72
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
46.6%
3.57
BTTS Yes
88%
1.62
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.72
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.22
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
8.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
Necaxa Win 39.1%
Draw 14.3%
Puebla Win 46.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Necaxa1.61
Puebla1.67
Recent Form (Last 5)
Necaxa Necaxa
WWDLW
18 GF / 16 GA
Puebla Puebla
WLDWL
17 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
1.89
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.78
9
BTTS Yes
7
7
Over 2.5
6
5.29
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Necaxa Necaxa 12 matches
Puebla Puebla 9 matches
Necaxa Statistic Puebla
5 Wins 5
4 Draws 1
3 Losses 3
18 Goals For 17
16 Goals Against 16
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.89
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.78
9 BTTS Yes 7
9 Over 1.5 8
7 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 5
3 Clean Sheets 1
2 Failed To Score 1
5.29 Shots On Goal 5
15.29 Total Shots 13.5
5.43 Corners 4.67
50.7% Ball Possession 38.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Necaxa expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Puebla in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Puebla having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Necaxa have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Puebla.

Necaxa Analysis

With 7 points from 6 games and a place of 12, Necaxa still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 8:11 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Julián Carranza (2 goals), Juan Valencia (1 goals), Matías Espíndola (1 goals), with creative support from Juan Valencia (1 assists), Francisco Méndez (1 assists), Alexis Peña (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Puebla Analysis

Puebla are currently 8 in the standings with 10 points from 6 matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 9:9 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Eduardo Mustre (1 goals), Fernando Monarrez (1 goals), Kevin Velasco (1 goals), with creative support from Alberto Herrera (2 assists), Eduardo Mustre (1 assists), Angel Leyva (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Necaxa won 7 times, Puebla won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:14 from Necaxa's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.7%)
Predicted formations: Necaxa 3-5-2 / Puebla 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Necaxa wins 7, draws 3, Puebla wins 5

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 5 1 0 12:2 10 16
W W W W D
2 7 4 2 1 12:6 6 14
W D W W D
3 6 4 1 1 12:4 8 13
W W D W L
4 6 4 1 1 10:7 3 13
W L W D W
5 7 4 1 2 10:9 1 13
D L W W L
6 7 4 0 3 12:11 1 12
W W L L L
7 7 3 2 2 11:9 2 11
W L D D W
8 6 3 1 2 9:7 2 10
W L D W W
9 6 3 1 2 9:9 0 10
L W W D L
10 7 3 1 3 9:9 0 10
L D W W W
11 6 3 0 3 13:10 3 9
L L W W L
12 7 2 2 3 10:8 2 8
W D D L L
13 7 2 2 3 9:12 -3 8
D L D L L
14 7 1 4 2 7:9 -2 7
D D L D W
15 7 1 3 3 9:11 -2 6
D D W L L
16 7 1 3 3 8:13 -5 6
L W D L D
17 7 0 1 6 4:12 -8 1
L D L L L
18 7 0 0 7 3:21 -18 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)