UGANDA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
MTN Omondi Stadium
NEC
Match Timeline
Maroons
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
36'
R. Basangwa
NEC

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 58%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 63.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74.1%
-
BTTS BTTS No
58%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
63.6%
-
Probability Distribution
NEC Win 74.1%
Draw 6%
Maroons Win 20%
Expected Goals (xG)
NEC0.93
Maroons0.78
Recent Form (Last 5)
NEC NEC
WWDLW
24 GF / 16 GA
Maroons Maroons
WLDWL
18 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1.09
Average Goals Scored
0.82
0.73
Average Goals Conceded
0.68
10
BTTS Yes
6
5
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

NEC NEC 22 matches
Maroons Maroons 22 matches
NEC Statistic Maroons
9 Wins 7
10 Draws 8
3 Losses 7
24 Goals For 18
16 Goals Against 15
1.09 Avg Goals Scored 0.82
0.73 Avg Goals Conceded 0.68
10 BTTS Yes 6
11 Over 1.5 10
5 Over 2.5 5
3 Over 3.5 1
11 Clean Sheets 11
4 Failed To Score 10
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Maroons. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Maroons having the stronger overall control. NEC come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

NEC Analysis

NEC are currently 7 in the standings with 37 points from 22 matches. Their overall return of 9 wins, 10 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 24:16 reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Dhata (3 goals), J. Seremba (2 goals), M. Kizza (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 0 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Maroons Analysis

Maroons sit 9 with 29 points after 22 league matches. The record of 7 wins, 8 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 18:15 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through I. Asaba (4 goals), I. Mayanja (3 goals), R. Walugembe (3 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, NEC won 5 times, Maroons won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:4 from NEC's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94%)
H2H summary: NEC wins 5, draws 1, Maroons wins 0
Last matches: NEC
23.05.26
Pre
NEC
Calvary
0
2
L
20.05.26
Pre
NEC
SC Villa
1
4
L
09.05.26
Pre
NEC
Kitara
1
0
W
28.04.26
Pre
NEC
BUL
1
0
W
24.04.26
Pre
NEC
Mbarara City
0
0
D
21.04.26
Pre
NEC
Express
0
0
D
09.04.26
Pre
NEC
URA
1
0
W
13.03.26
Pre
NEC
Police
1
0
W
10.03.26
Pre
NEC
Entebbe UPPC
0
0
D
06.03.26
Pre
NEC
Lugazi
2
0
W
03.03.26
Pre
NEC
UPDF
1
0
W
17.02.26
Pre
NEC
Vipers
1
1
D
13.02.26
Pre
NEC
KCCA
3
1
W
31.01.26
Pre
NEC
Express
0
0
D
27.01.26
Pre
NEC
Buhimba Saints
1
0
W
24.01.26
Pre
NEC
Kitara
3
3
D
07.01.26
Pre
NEC
Lugazi
1
0
W
16.12.25
Pre
NEC
UPDF
0
0
D
12.12.25
Pre
NEC
KCCA
1
2
L
05.12.25
Pre
NEC
Vipers
1
1
D
Last matches: Maroons
23.05.26
Pre
Maroons
Lugazi
1
0
W
19.05.26
Pre
Maroons
Vipers
0
3
L
12.05.26
Pre
Maroons
Entebbe UPPC
0
0
D
07.05.26
Pre
Maroons
KCCA
0
3
L
28.04.26
Pre
Maroons
URA
2
2
D
25.04.26
Pre
Maroons
Police
3
1
W
21.04.26
Pre
Maroons
Mbarara City
2
2
D
08.04.26
Pre
Maroons
BUL
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Maroons
UPDF
0
0
D
10.03.26
Pre
Maroons
Calvary
1
0
W
07.03.26
Pre
Maroons
Buhimba Saints
1
0
W
04.03.26
Pre
Maroons
Express
1
1
D
19.02.26
Pre
Maroons
SC Villa
0
2
L
12.02.26
Pre
Maroons
Kitara
0
1
L
31.01.26
Pre
Maroons
Mbarara City
1
1
D
27.01.26
Pre
Maroons
Entebbe UPPC
0
0
D
21.01.26
Pre
Maroons
KCCA
0
0
D
06.01.26
Pre
Maroons
Buhimba Saints
0
1
L
17.12.25
Pre
Maroons
Express
4
0
W
12.12.25
Pre
Maroons
Kitara
0
2
L
H2H: NEC vs Maroons
18.04.26
H2H
NEC
Maroons
1
0
W
29.11.25
H2H
Maroons
NEC
1
1
D
14.03.25
H2H
Maroons
NEC
1
3
W
18.10.24
H2H
NEC
Maroons
2
1
W
13.03.24
H2H
NEC
Maroons
2
1
W
11.11.23
H2H
Maroons
NEC
0
1
W
Last matches: NEC
20.05.26
Pre
NEC
SC Villa
1
4
L
24.04.26
Pre
NEC
Mbarara City
0
0
D
09.04.26
Pre
NEC
URA
1
0
W
10.03.26
Pre
NEC
Entebbe UPPC
0
0
D
03.03.26
Pre
NEC
UPDF
1
0
W
13.02.26
Pre
NEC
KCCA
3
1
W
31.01.26
Pre
NEC
Express
0
0
D
24.01.26
Pre
NEC
Kitara
3
3
D
07.01.26
Pre
NEC
Lugazi
1
0
W
05.12.25
Pre
NEC
Vipers
1
1
D
25.11.25
Pre
NEC
Calvary
1
0
W
08.11.25
Pre
NEC
BUL
1
1
D
18.10.25
Pre
NEC
Police
2
2
D
H2H at home: NEC
18.04.26
H2H
NEC
Maroons
1
0
W
18.10.24
H2H
NEC
Maroons
2
1
W
13.03.24
H2H
NEC
Maroons
2
1
W
Last matches: Maroons
23.05.26
Pre
Maroons
Lugazi
1
0
W
07.05.26
Pre
Maroons
KCCA
0
3
L
28.04.26
Pre
Maroons
URA
2
2
D
21.04.26
Pre
Maroons
Mbarara City
2
2
D
10.03.26
Pre
Maroons
Calvary
1
0
W
04.03.26
Pre
Maroons
Express
1
1
D
19.02.26
Pre
Maroons
SC Villa
0
2
L
27.01.26
Pre
Maroons
Entebbe UPPC
0
0
D
06.01.26
Pre
Maroons
Buhimba Saints
0
1
L
12.12.25
Pre
Maroons
Kitara
0
2
L
22.11.25
Pre
Maroons
Vipers
1
2
L
29.10.25
Pre
Maroons
Police
1
2
L
15.10.25
Pre
Maroons
UPDF
2
1
W
01.10.25
Pre
Maroons
BUL
0
1
L
H2H away: Maroons
18.04.26
H2H
NEC
Maroons
1
0
L
18.10.24
H2H
NEC
Maroons
2
1
L
13.03.24
H2H
NEC
Maroons
2
1
L

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 10 1 55:17 38 67
W W D D D
2 30 19 5 6 46:22 24 62
W D W W D
3 30 18 7 5 47:17 30 61
W W W D L
4 30 16 8 6 43:22 21 56
D D L L W
5 30 14 9 7 30:20 10 51
W D D W W
6
NEC Home
30 13 12 5 31:22 9 51
L L W W W
7 30 13 8 9 42:35 7 47
D D D L W
8 30 9 11 10 26:27 -1 38
W L D L D
9 30 9 10 11 30:33 -3 37
L D D D L
10 30 9 10 11 28:31 -3 37
L D W W L
11 30 5 16 9 27:30 -3 31
W D D D D
12 30 6 9 15 26:46 -20 27
L W L W W
13 30 5 10 15 19:36 -17 25
L D D L W
14 30 5 7 18 24:41 -17 22
L D L L L
15 30 4 9 17 14:39 -25 21
W D D W L
16 30 4 3 23 16:66 -50 15
L L L L L
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League