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25.10.2026 13:30
Stadion de Goffert
Referee: Martin Van den Kerkhof
NEC Nijmegen
Match Timeline
Groningen
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
11'
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson · Assist: Marco Rente
Groningen
⚽
34'
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson · Assist: Thom Van Bergen
Groningen
🟨
42'
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson
Groningen
🔄
45'
Perr Schuurs ↔ Tobias Storm
NEC Nijmegen
🟨
56'
David van der Werff
Groningen
🔄
56'
Deveron Fonville ↔ Mitchel Bakker
NEC Nijmegen
🔄
56'
Ahmetcan Kaplan ↔ Kaj Sierhuis
NEC Nijmegen
⚽
57'
Clement Bischoff · Assist: Darko Nejašmić
NEC Nijmegen
VAR
58'
Clement Bischoff
NEC Nijmegen
🔄
68'
Kevin Kers ↔ Adam Tahaui
NEC Nijmegen
⚽
71'
Noe Lebreton
NEC Nijmegen
🔄
72'
Mark Csinger ↔ Wouter Prins
Groningen
🔄
73'
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson ↔ Nils Eggens
Groningen
🔄
73'
Tika de Jonge ↔ Tygo Land
Groningen
🔄
76'
David van der Werff ↔ Travis Hernes
Groningen
🟨
79'
Hans Hateboer
Groningen

NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 69.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
69.8%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
NEC Nijmegen Win 23.8%
Draw 6.4%
Groningen Win 69.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
NEC Nijmegen1.84
Groningen1.78
Recent Form (Last 5)
NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen
W D D D D
9 GF / 7 GA
Groningen Groningen
L W W D D
13 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
1.7
Average Goals Scored
1.75
1.83
Average Goals Conceded
2.06
17
BTTS Yes
11
17
Over 2.5
13
4.63
Shots on Goal
5.78

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 23 matches
Groningen Groningen 16 matches
NEC Nijmegen Statistic Groningen
6 Wins 6
7 Draws 3
10 Losses 7
39 Goals For 28
42 Goals Against 33
1.7 Avg Goals Scored 1.75
1.83 Avg Goals Conceded 2.06
17 BTTS Yes 11
21 Over 1.5 14
17 Over 2.5 13
12 Over 3.5 9
2 Clean Sheets 3
5 Failed To Score 3
4.63 Shots On Goal 5.78
14.75 Total Shots 15
4.69 Corners 4.89
54.7% Ball Possession 50.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Groningen's more proactive style and NEC Nijmegen's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Groningen carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 6 with 14 points while NEC Nijmegen sit 11 on 9, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Groningen. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with NEC Nijmegen expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Groningen in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Groningen having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

NEC Nijmegen Analysis

NEC Nijmegen sit 11 with 9 points after 8 league matches. The record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 13:14 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through T. Chery (4 goals), P. Schuurs (2 goals), Adam Tahaui (2 goals), with creative support from T. Chery (2 assists), D. Tadić (2 assists), V. van Crooij (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Groningen Analysis

So far, Groningen have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 14 points from 8 matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 20:14 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by T. van Bergen (5 goals), B. Willumsson (5 goals), D. van der Werff (2 goals), with creative support from D. van der Werff (3 assists), T. van Bergen (2 assists), P. Clement (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, NEC Nijmegen won 6 times, Groningen won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:18 from NEC Nijmegen's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.6%)
Predicted formations: NEC Nijmegen 3-4-2-1 / Groningen 4-2-3-1
Missing players: NEC Nijmegen 5, Groningen 3
H2H summary: NEC Nijmegen wins 6, draws 5, Groningen wins 4

Standings

Eredivisie
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 4 0 33:12 21 25
D D W W W
2 11 7 3 1 30:13 17 24
W W W D D
3 11 7 2 2 35:13 22 23
W D L W L
4 11 7 2 2 28:10 18 23
W W L D W
5 11 6 2 3 20:13 7 20
L L D L W
6 11 5 4 2 18:18 0 19
D W D D W
7 11 5 3 3 19:13 6 18
W W W L W
8 11 4 3 4 26:24 2 15
L D L W W
9 11 4 3 4 23:22 1 15
W W D W D
10 11 3 5 3 23:27 -4 14
L W L D D
11 11 3 3 5 20:26 -6 12
W L W D L
12 11 3 3 5 19:31 -12 12
L D W W L
13 11 2 5 4 17:19 -2 11
L D D D D
14 11 3 2 6 12:23 -11 11
W D W L L
15 11 3 2 6 16:28 -12 11
L L L L D
16 11 2 3 6 16:23 -7 9
W L L D L
17 11 1 3 7 13:24 -11 6
L L W D D
18 11 0 2 9 10:39 -29 2
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie