BRAZIL SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio dos Aflitos
Referee: B. Correia
Nautico Recife
Match Timeline
Londrina
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
35'
Kauan Maranhao · Assist: Jean Carlos
Nautico Recife
🟨
38'
Jean Carlos
Nautico Recife
🔄
46'
Vitinho Mota ↔ Nino Paraiba
Londrina
🔄
46'
Joao Tavares ↔ Lucas Marques
Londrina
🔄
46'
Kaue Leonardo ↔ Rai Nascimento
Londrina
🟨
49'
Heron
Londrina
🔄
56'
Arnaldo ↔ Reginaldo
Nautico Recife
🔄
58'
Pablo Dyego ↔ Gilberto
Londrina
🟨
59'
Samuel Felix
Nautico Recife
74'
Jean Carlos
Nautico Recife
🔄
75'
Derek ↔ Victor Andrade
Nautico Recife
🔄
75'
Kauan Maranhao ↔ Luiz Claudio
Nautico Recife
🟨
77'
Luiz Claudio
Nautico Recife
🟨
81'
Igor Fernandes
Nautico Recife
82'
Gabriel Lacerda · Assist: Joao Vitor
Londrina
🔄
87'
Tarik ↔ Kevyn
Londrina
🔄
89'
Jean Carlos ↔ Auremir
Nautico Recife
🔄
89'
Samuel Felix ↔ Wanderson
Nautico Recife
🟨
90+5'
Rogerio Micale
Londrina
🟨
90+9'
Kevyn
Londrina

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 67.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
67.3%
-
BTTS Yes
75%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nautico Recife Win 48.7%
Draw 18.6%
Londrina Win 32.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nautico Recife1.29
Londrina1.35
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife
WWDLW
22 GF / 23 GA
Londrina Londrina
WLDWL
25 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.22
Average Goals Scored
1.39
1.28
Average Goals Conceded
1.39
6
BTTS Yes
9
7
Over 2.5
11
4.33
Shots on Goal
3.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nautico Recife Nautico Recife 18 matches
Londrina Londrina 18 matches
Nautico Recife Statistic Londrina
6 Wins 5
3 Draws 5
9 Losses 8
22 Goals For 25
23 Goals Against 25
1.22 Avg Goals Scored 1.39
1.28 Avg Goals Conceded 1.39
6 BTTS Yes 9
10 Over 1.5 13
7 Over 2.5 11
4 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 4
8 Failed To Score 7
4.33 Shots On Goal 3.67
15.94 Total Shots 12.22
5.83 Corners 5.28
60.2% Ball Possession 44.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nautico Recife expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Londrina in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Londrina having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Londrina. Nautico Recife have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Nautico Recife Analysis

Nautico Recife approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 13 with 21 points from 17 matches. The overall return of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 8 defeats with a 21:21 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Vinícius (4 goals), Dodô (2 goals), Victor Andrade (2 goals), with creative support from Vinícius (2 assists), Wenderson (2 assists), Yuri (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Londrina Analysis

Londrina approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 19 points from 17 matches. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 4 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 25:25 goal record continues to suggest good form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Bruno Santos (4 goals), Iago Teles (2 goals), Lucas Marques (1 goals), with creative support from Bruno Santos (3 assists), Iago Teles (1 assists), Lucas Marques (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Nautico Recife won 2 times, Londrina won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:15 from Nautico Recife's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.18 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.4%)
Predicted formations: Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1 / Londrina 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Nautico Recife wins 2, draws 2, Londrina wins 7
Stats
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife
Londrina Londrina
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
8
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
2
8 Corner Kicks 7
18 Fouls 21
2 Offsides 1
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Goal 4
8 Shots off Goal 5
5 Blocked Shots 2
10 Shots insidebox 6
7 Shots outsidebox 5
3 Goalkeeper Saves 2
309 Total passes 281
234 Passes accurate 217
1.93 expected_goals 0.95
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Nautico Recife
Formation
Londrina
Muriel Becker
Muriel Becker
Arnaldo
Arnaldo
Leo Indio
Leo Indio
Gustavo Henrique
Gustavo Henrique
Igor Fernandes
Igor Fernandes
Samuel Felix
Samuel Felix
Wenderson
Wenderson
Luiz Felipe
Luiz Felipe
Derek
Derek
Jean Carlos
🎯
Jean Carlos
Kauan Maranhao
Kauan Maranhao
Mauricio Kozlinski
Mauricio Kozlinski
Kaue Leonardo
Kaue Leonardo
Yago Lincoln
Yago Lincoln
Gabriel Lacerda
Gabriel Lacerda
Heron
Heron
Tarik
Tarik
Vitinho Mota
Vitinho Mota
Joao Tavares
Joao Tavares
Joao Vitor
🎯
Joao Vitor
Pablo Dyego
Pablo Dyego
Paulinho Moccelin
Paulinho Moccelin
Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Muriel Becker
G
2
Arnaldo
↓ 56'
D
15
Leo Indio
D
46
Gustavo Henrique
23
Igor Fernandes
🟨 81'
D
41
Samuel Felix
↓ 89' 🟨 59'
M
8
Wenderson
M
27
Luiz Felipe
M
72
Derek
↓ 75'
M
20
Jean Carlos
⚽ 74' 🎯 35' ↓ 89' 🟨 38'
M
19
Kauan Maranhao
⚽ 35' ↓ 75'
F
Substitutes
55
G. Guruceaga
G
5
Auremir
↑ 89'
M
11
Victor Andrade
↑ 75'
F
93
Reginaldo
↑ 56'
D
34
Wanderson
↑ 89'
D
3
Betao
D
16
Luiz Claudio
↑ 75' 🟨 77'
F
37
Juan Rikelme
D
18
Halan
M
14
Matheus Ribeiro
D
35
Matuto
Londrina 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
30
Mauricio Kozlinski
G
75
Kaue Leonardo
↓ 46'
D
3
Yago Lincoln
D
15
Gabriel Lacerda
⚽ 82'
D
34
Heron
🟨 49'
D
5
Tarik
↓ 87'
M
7
Vitinho Mota
↓ 46'
M
32
Joao Tavares
↓ 46'
M
20
Joao Vitor
🎯 82'
M
11
Pablo Dyego
↓ 58'
M
18
Paulinho Moccelin
F
Substitutes
1
Luan Ribeiro
G
22
Artur
D
33
Kevyn
↑ 87' 🟨 90+9'
D
44
Caio Rodrigues
D
4
Wallace
D
9
Gilberto
↑ 58'
F
2
Nino Paraiba
↑ 46'
D
8
Lucas Marques
↑ 46'
M
28
Rai Nascimento
↑ 46'
F
27
Murilo Sousa
M
6
Rafael Monteiro
D
Last matches: Nautico Recife
23.08.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
São Bernardo
1
1
D
19.08.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Ceara
1
0
W
14.08.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Ponte Preta
1
1
D
09.08.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Atletico Goianiense
1
1
D
26.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Criciuma
0
0
D
16.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
CRB
1
2
L
12.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Avai
0
2
L
05.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Juventude
0
0
D
28.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Goias
0
1
L
20.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Vila Nova
3
4
L
14.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Novorizontino
2
2
D
09.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Fortaleza EC
0
1
L
30.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Sport Recife
0
2
L
22.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Cuiaba
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Operario-PR
6
2
W
10.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
America Mineiro
4
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Botafogo SP
1
1
D
27.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Athletic Club
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
São Bernardo
0
3
L
11.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Ceara
0
1
L
Last matches: Londrina
22.08.26
Ser
Londrina
Ceara
1
2
L
18.08.26
Ser
Londrina
Atletico Goianiense
0
0
D
14.08.26
Ser
Londrina
Sport Recife
1
2
L
10.08.26
Ser
Londrina
Goias
0
1
L
26.07.26
Ser
Londrina
Novorizontino
1
4
L
18.07.26
Ser
Londrina
Botafogo SP
0
0
D
13.07.26
Ser
Londrina
America Mineiro
1
1
D
04.07.26
Ser
Londrina
CRB
5
0
W
25.06.26
Ser
Londrina
Cuiaba
2
2
D
20.06.26
Ser
Londrina
Athletic Club
2
0
W
16.06.26
Ser
Londrina
Avai
3
2
W
06.06.26
Ser
Londrina
Criciuma
0
1
L
31.05.26
Ser
Londrina
Vila Nova
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Londrina
Fortaleza EC
0
3
L
18.05.26
Ser
Londrina
Ponte Preta
4
1
W
12.05.26
Ser
Londrina
São Bernardo
1
3
L
03.05.26
Ser
Londrina
Operario-PR
0
3
L
26.04.26
Ser
Londrina
Juventude
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Londrina
Ceara
0
0
D
12.04.26
Ser
Londrina
Atletico Goianiense
1
2
L
H2H: Nautico Recife vs Londrina
23.07.26
H2H
Nautico Recife
Londrina
2
1
W
10.08.25
H2H
Londrina
Nautico Recife
0
2
W
24.08.24
H2H
Londrina
Nautico Recife
3
2
L
23.07.22
H2H
Nautico Recife
Londrina
1
2
L
10.04.22
H2H
Londrina
Nautico Recife
2
0
L
22.09.21
H2H
Nautico Recife
Londrina
1
2
L
23.06.21
H2H
Londrina
Nautico Recife
0
0
D
11.11.17
H2H
Nautico Recife
Londrina
1
2
L
22.07.17
H2H
Londrina
Nautico Recife
0
0
D
30.08.16
H2H
Nautico Recife
Londrina
0
2
L
24.05.16
H2H
Londrina
Nautico Recife
1
0
L
Last matches: Nautico Recife
19.08.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Ceara
1
0
W
09.08.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Atletico Goianiense
1
1
D
05.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Juventude
0
0
D
28.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Goias
0
1
L
09.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Fortaleza EC
0
1
L
22.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Cuiaba
1
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
America Mineiro
4
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
São Bernardo
0
3
L
04.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Ponte Preta
1
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Criciuma
0
1
L
H2H at home: Nautico Recife
23.07.26
H2H
Nautico Recife
Londrina
2
1
W
23.07.22
H2H
Nautico Recife
Londrina
1
2
L
22.09.21
H2H
Nautico Recife
Londrina
1
2
L
11.11.17
H2H
Nautico Recife
Londrina
1
2
L
30.08.16
H2H
Nautico Recife
Londrina
0
2
L
Last matches: Londrina
22.08.26
Ser
Londrina
Ceara
1
2
L
14.08.26
Ser
Londrina
Sport Recife
1
2
L
10.08.26
Ser
Londrina
Goias
0
1
L
13.07.26
Ser
Londrina
America Mineiro
1
1
D
25.06.26
Ser
Londrina
Cuiaba
2
2
D
06.06.26
Ser
Londrina
Criciuma
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Londrina
Fortaleza EC
0
3
L
18.05.26
Ser
Londrina
Ponte Preta
4
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
Londrina
Operario-PR
0
3
L
26.04.26
Ser
Londrina
Juventude
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Londrina
Atletico Goianiense
1
2
L
22.03.26
Ser
Londrina
Novorizontino
3
1
W
H2H away: Londrina
23.07.26
H2H
Nautico Recife
Londrina
2
1
L
23.07.22
H2H
Nautico Recife
Londrina
1
2
W
22.09.21
H2H
Nautico Recife
Londrina
1
2
W
11.11.17
H2H
Nautico Recife
Londrina
1
2
W
30.08.16
H2H
Nautico Recife
Londrina
0
2
W

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 13 6 5 26:13 13 45
W W D W W
2 24 12 8 4 25:17 8 44
L D W L D
3 24 12 5 7 35:25 10 41
D W W L L
4 24 11 7 6 39:21 18 40
W W D L W
5 24 11 7 6 27:21 6 40
W D D D W
6 24 9 11 4 32:22 10 38
W L W W D
7 24 10 6 8 35:34 1 36
L W D W W
8 24 10 6 8 30:31 -1 36
D L L L L
9 24 9 9 6 27:23 4 36
W D L D W
10 24 8 10 6 25:25 0 34
L L W W D
11 24 9 6 9 23:29 -6 33
D L L W L
12 24 7 12 5 21:18 3 33
D W W D D
13 24 8 8 8 33:27 6 32
D D L W L
14 24 8 7 9 28:26 2 31
L D W W L
15 24 8 7 9 28:27 1 31
D W D D D
16 24 8 5 11 27:30 -3 29
W W W L L
17 24 7 7 10 25:30 -5 28
W L L W W
18 24 5 6 13 29:36 -7 21
L D L L L
19 24 2 5 17 16:42 -26 11
L L L L W
20 24 2 4 18 16:50 -34 10
L L D L D
Promotion
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