BRAZIL SERIE B
23.07.2026 00:30
Estadio dos Aflitos
Referee: B. Correia
Nautico Recife
Match Timeline
Londrina
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
35'
Kauan Maranhao · Assist: Jean Carlos
Nautico Recife
🟨
38'
Jean Carlos
Nautico Recife
🔄
46'
Vitinho Mota ↔ Nino Paraiba
Londrina
🔄
46'
Joao Tavares ↔ Lucas Marques
Londrina
🔄
46'
Kaue Leonardo ↔ Rai Nascimento
Londrina
🟨
49'
Heron
Londrina
🔄
56'
Arnaldo ↔ Reginaldo
Nautico Recife
🔄
58'
Pablo Dyego ↔ Gilberto
Londrina
🟨
59'
Samuel Felix
Nautico Recife
74'
Jean Carlos
Nautico Recife
🔄
75'
Derek ↔ Victor Andrade
Nautico Recife
🔄
75'
Kauan Maranhao ↔ Luiz Claudio
Nautico Recife
🟨
77'
Luiz Claudio
Nautico Recife
🟨
81'
Igor Fernandes
Nautico Recife
82'
Gabriel Lacerda · Assist: Joao Vitor
Londrina
🔄
87'
Tarik ↔ Kevyn
Londrina
🔄
89'
Jean Carlos ↔ Auremir
Nautico Recife
🔄
89'
Samuel Felix ↔ Wanderson
Nautico Recife
🟨
90+5'
Rogerio Micale
Londrina
🟨
90+9'
Kevyn
Londrina

Nautico Recife vs Londrina Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 67.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
67.3%
-
BTTS Yes
75%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nautico Recife Win 48.7%
Draw 18.6%
Londrina Win 32.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nautico Recife1.29
Londrina1.35
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife
WWDLW
22 GF / 23 GA
Londrina Londrina
WLDWL
25 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.22
Average Goals Scored
1.39
1.28
Average Goals Conceded
1.39
6
BTTS Yes
9
7
Over 2.5
11
4.33
Shots on Goal
3.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nautico Recife Nautico Recife 18 matches
Londrina Londrina 18 matches
Nautico Recife Statistic Londrina
6 Wins 5
3 Draws 5
9 Losses 8
22 Goals For 25
23 Goals Against 25
1.22 Avg Goals Scored 1.39
1.28 Avg Goals Conceded 1.39
6 BTTS Yes 9
10 Over 1.5 13
7 Over 2.5 11
4 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 4
8 Failed To Score 7
4.33 Shots On Goal 3.67
15.94 Total Shots 12.22
5.83 Corners 5.28
60.2% Ball Possession 44.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nautico Recife expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Londrina in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Londrina having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Londrina. Nautico Recife have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Nautico Recife Analysis

Nautico Recife approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 13 with 21 points from 17 matches. The overall return of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 8 defeats with a 21:21 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Vinícius (4 goals), Dodô (2 goals), Victor Andrade (2 goals), with creative support from Vinícius (2 assists), Wenderson (2 assists), Yuri (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Londrina Analysis

Londrina approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 19 points from 17 matches. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 4 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 25:25 goal record continues to suggest good form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Bruno Santos (4 goals), Iago Teles (2 goals), Lucas Marques (1 goals), with creative support from Bruno Santos (3 assists), Iago Teles (1 assists), Lucas Marques (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Nautico Recife won 2 times, Londrina won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:15 from Nautico Recife's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.18 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.4%)
Predicted formations: Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1 / Londrina 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Nautico Recife wins 2, draws 2, Londrina wins 7

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 9 6 33:24 9 51
W D W W D
3 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
4 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
5 28 13 8 7 28:25 3 47
L L W L L
6 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
7 29 13 6 10 42:41 1 45
L W L W W
8 28 12 8 8 39:36 3 44
D W W D D
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 10 13 6 30:22 8 43
W D W L W
11 29 12 6 11 30:35 -5 42
W W L L W
12 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
13 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
14 29 10 8 11 35:36 -1 38
L D L W W
15 29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17 29 8 6 15 30:38 -8 30
L D L L L
18 29 7 7 15 39:41 -2 28
L W W L D
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 29 3 4 22 17:62 -45 13
W L L L L
Promotion
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