BRAZIL SERIE B
09.06.2026 22:00
Estádio dos Aflitos
Referee: L. Casagrande
Nautico Recife
Match Timeline
Fortaleza EC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟥
-5'
Juan Miritello
Fortaleza EC
🟨
36'
Emanuel Brítez
Fortaleza EC
🟨
38'
Leonai
Nautico Recife
🟨
39'
Luiz Fernando
Fortaleza EC
44'
Mateus Silva
Fortaleza EC
🔄
46'
J. B. Miritello ↔ Lucas Crispim
Fortaleza EC
🔄
46'
Vitinho ↔ T. Pochettino
Fortaleza EC
VAR
51'
Rodriguinho
Fortaleza EC
🟥
52'
Rodriguinho
Fortaleza EC
🔄
60'
Igor Fernandes ↔ Yuri
Nautico Recife
🔄
62'
Luiz Fernando ↔ Kayke
Fortaleza EC
🔄
64'
Derek ↔ Juninho
Nautico Recife
🔄
64'
Leonai Souza ↔ Ramon
Nautico Recife
🟨
67'
Kayke
Fortaleza EC
🟨
76'
Maurício Júnior
Fortaleza EC
🔄
80'
Betao ↔ Wanderson
Nautico Recife
🔄
80'
Wenderson ↔ Rosa
Nautico Recife
🔄
80'
Mauricio Junior ↔ G. Fuentes
Fortaleza EC
🟨
85'
Mateus Silva
Nautico Recife
🟨
90+5'
Juninho
Nautico Recife
🔄
90'
Lucas Sasha ↔ Ryan
Fortaleza EC

Nautico Recife vs Fortaleza EC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.1%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nautico Recife Win 58.1%
Draw 12.5%
Fortaleza EC Win 29.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nautico Recife1.27
Fortaleza EC1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife
WWDLW
16 GF / 11 GA
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC
WLDWL
14 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
1.27
1
Average Goals Conceded
1
3
BTTS Yes
4
4
Over 2.5
6
3.73
Shots on Goal
3.82

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nautico Recife Nautico Recife 11 matches
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC 11 matches
Nautico Recife Statistic Fortaleza EC
6 Wins 5
1 Draws 3
4 Losses 3
16 Goals For 14
11 Goals Against 11
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 1.27
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1
3 BTTS Yes 4
6 Over 1.5 6
4 Over 2.5 6
2 Over 3.5 3
4 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 5
3.73 Shots On Goal 3.82
14.45 Total Shots 12.91
5.55 Corners 4.27
58.4% Ball Possession 42.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nautico Recife expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Fortaleza EC in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fortaleza EC having the stronger overall control. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Fortaleza EC. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Nautico Recife Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 19 points from 11 games, Nautico Recife bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 6 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, with a 16:11 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Vinícius (5 goals), Dodo (2 goals), Junior Todinho (2 goals), with creative support from Vinícius (2 assists), Wenderson (2 assists), Yuri (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, their record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Fortaleza EC Analysis

Fortaleza EC are currently 7 in the standings with 18 points from 11 matches. The record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 14:11 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through J. B. Miritello (3 goals), Vitinho (3 goals), Luiz Fernando (2 goals), with creative support from Maílton (1 assists), Ruan Carvalho (1 assists), Emanuel Brítez (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Nautico Recife won 0 times, Fortaleza EC won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:10 from Nautico Recife's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.5%)
Predicted formations: Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1 / Fortaleza EC 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Nautico Recife wins 0, draws 1, Fortaleza EC wins 4

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 13 6 5 26:13 13 45
W W D W W
2 25 13 5 7 37:25 12 44
W D W W L
3 25 12 8 5 26:19 7 44
L L D W L
4 25 12 7 6 41:22 19 43
W W W D L
5 25 11 8 6 28:22 6 41
D W D D D
6 25 11 6 8 37:35 2 39
W L W D W
7 25 10 9 6 28:23 5 39
W W D L D
8 25 9 11 5 33:24 9 38
L W L W W
9 25 10 7 8 31:32 -1 37
D D L L L
10 25 10 6 9 25:30 -5 36
W D L L W
11 25 8 12 5 23:19 4 36
W D W W D
12 25 9 7 9 30:28 2 34
W D W D D
13 25 8 10 7 26:27 -1 34
L L L W W
14 25 8 8 9 34:29 5 32
L D D L W
15 25 8 7 10 29:28 1 31
L L D W W
16 25 8 5 12 27:31 -4 29
L W W W L
17 25 7 7 11 25:32 -7 28
L W L L W
18 24 5 6 13 29:36 -7 21
L D L L L
19 25 3 5 17 18:42 -24 14
W L L L L
20 25 2 4 19 16:52 -36 10
L L L D L
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