BRAZIL SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio dos Aflitos
Referee: L. Casagrande
Nautico Recife
Match Timeline
Fortaleza EC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟥
-5'
Juan Miritello
Fortaleza EC
🟨
36'
Emanuel Brítez
Fortaleza EC
🟨
38'
Leonai
Nautico Recife
🟨
39'
Luiz Fernando
Fortaleza EC
44'
Mateus Silva
Fortaleza EC
🔄
46'
J. B. Miritello ↔ Lucas Crispim
Fortaleza EC
🔄
46'
Vitinho ↔ T. Pochettino
Fortaleza EC
VAR
51'
Rodriguinho
Fortaleza EC
🟥
52'
Rodriguinho
Fortaleza EC
🔄
60'
Igor Fernandes ↔ Yuri
Nautico Recife
🔄
62'
Luiz Fernando ↔ Kayke
Fortaleza EC
🔄
64'
Derek ↔ Juninho
Nautico Recife
🔄
64'
Leonai Souza ↔ Ramon
Nautico Recife
🟨
67'
Kayke
Fortaleza EC
🟨
76'
Maurício Júnior
Fortaleza EC
🔄
80'
Betao ↔ Wanderson
Nautico Recife
🔄
80'
Wenderson ↔ Rosa
Nautico Recife
🔄
80'
Mauricio Junior ↔ G. Fuentes
Fortaleza EC
🟨
85'
Mateus Silva
Nautico Recife
🟨
90+5'
Juninho
Nautico Recife
🔄
90'
Lucas Sasha ↔ Ryan
Fortaleza EC

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.1%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nautico Recife Win 58.1%
Draw 12.5%
Fortaleza EC Win 29.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nautico Recife1.27
Fortaleza EC1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife
WWDLW
16 GF / 11 GA
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC
WLDWL
14 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
1.27
1
Average Goals Conceded
1
3
BTTS Yes
4
4
Over 2.5
6
3.73
Shots on Goal
3.82

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nautico Recife Nautico Recife 11 matches
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC 11 matches
Nautico Recife Statistic Fortaleza EC
6 Wins 5
1 Draws 3
4 Losses 3
16 Goals For 14
11 Goals Against 11
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 1.27
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1
3 BTTS Yes 4
6 Over 1.5 6
4 Over 2.5 6
2 Over 3.5 3
4 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 5
3.73 Shots On Goal 3.82
14.45 Total Shots 12.91
5.55 Corners 4.27
58.4% Ball Possession 42.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nautico Recife expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Fortaleza EC in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fortaleza EC having the stronger overall control. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Fortaleza EC. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Nautico Recife Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 19 points from 11 games, Nautico Recife bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 6 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, with a 16:11 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Vinícius (5 goals), Dodo (2 goals), Junior Todinho (2 goals), with creative support from Vinícius (2 assists), Wenderson (2 assists), Yuri (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, their record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Fortaleza EC Analysis

Fortaleza EC are currently 7 in the standings with 18 points from 11 matches. The record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 14:11 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through J. B. Miritello (3 goals), Vitinho (3 goals), Luiz Fernando (2 goals), with creative support from Maílton (1 assists), Ruan Carvalho (1 assists), Emanuel Brítez (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Nautico Recife won 0 times, Fortaleza EC won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:10 from Nautico Recife's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.5%)
Predicted formations: Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1 / Fortaleza EC 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Nautico Recife wins 0, draws 1, Fortaleza EC wins 4
Stats
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC
Shots on Goal
10
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
13
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
8
Blocked Shots
1
10 Corner Kicks 4
6 Fouls 16
3 Offsides 6
73% Ball Possession 27%
31 Total Shots 4
10 Shots on Goal 1
13 Shots off Goal 2
8 Blocked Shots 1
17 Shots insidebox 3
14 Shots outsidebox 1
1 Goalkeeper Saves 9
506 Total passes 192
464 Passes accurate 130
2.24 expected_goals 0.19
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 2 🟥

Lineups

Nautico Recife
Formation
Fortaleza EC
Muriel Becker
Muriel Becker
Reginaldo
Reginaldo
Mateus Silva
Mateus Silva
Betao
Betao
Igor Fernandes
Igor Fernandes
Leonai Souza
Leonai Souza
Wenderson
Wenderson
Vinicius
Vinicius
Dodo
Dodo
Junior Todinho
Junior Todinho
Derek
Derek
Joao Ricardo
Joao Ricardo
Rodriguinho
Rodriguinho
E. Britez
E. Britez
Luan Freitas
Luan Freitas
Lucas Gazal
Lucas Gazal
Mauricio Junior
Mauricio Junior
Vitinho
Vitinho
Lucas Sasha
Lucas Sasha
Rodrigo
Rodrigo
Luiz Fernando
Luiz Fernando
J. B. Miritello
J. B. Miritello
Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Muriel Becker
G
93
Reginaldo
D
25
Mateus Silva
⚽ 44' 🟨 85'
D
3
Betao
↓ 80'
D
23
Igor Fernandes
↓ 60'
D
19
Leonai Souza
↓ 64' 🟨 38'
M
8
Wenderson
↓ 80'
M
7
Vinicius
M
10
Dodo
M
29
Junior Todinho
M
72
Derek
↓ 64'
F
Substitutes
55
G. Guruceaga
G
5
Auremir
M
34
Wanderson
↑ 80'
D
30
Felipe Cardoso
M
41
Samuel Felix
M
18
Halan
M
77
Juninho
↑ 64' 🟨 90+5'
M
2
Arnaldo
D
14
Matheus Ribeiro
D
6
Yuri
↑ 60'
D
40
Ramon
↑ 64'
M
31
Rosa
↑ 80'
Fortaleza EC 5-4-1
Starting XI
1
Joao Ricardo
G
75
Rodriguinho
🟥 52'
D
2
E. Britez
🟨 36'
D
4
Luan Freitas
D
3
Lucas Gazal
D
13
Mauricio Junior
↓ 80' 🟨 76'
D
11
Vitinho
↓ 46'
M
88
Lucas Sasha
↓ 90'
M
29
Rodrigo
M
32
Luiz Fernando
↓ 62' 🟨 39'
M
9
J. B. Miritello
↓ 46' 🟥 -5'
F
Substitutes
25
Vinicius Silvestre
G
10
Lucas Crispim
↑ 46'
M
18
G. Fuentes
↑ 80'
D
7
T. Pochettino
↑ 46'
M
22
Mailton
D
8
Ronald
M
37
Ryan
↑ 90'
M
38
Lucca Prior
M
99
Kayke
↑ 62' 🟨 67'
F
31
Welliton
F
77
Paulo Baya
F
33
Kaua Rocha
D
Last matches: Nautico Recife
09.08.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Atletico Goianiense
1
1
D
26.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Criciuma
0
0
D
23.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Londrina
2
1
W
16.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
CRB
1
2
L
12.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Avai
0
2
L
05.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Juventude
0
0
D
28.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Goias
0
1
L
20.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Vila Nova
3
4
L
14.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Novorizontino
2
2
D
30.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Sport Recife
0
2
L
22.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Cuiaba
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Operario-PR
6
2
W
10.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
America Mineiro
4
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Botafogo SP
1
1
D
27.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Athletic Club
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
São Bernardo
0
3
L
11.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Ceara
0
1
L
04.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Ponte Preta
1
0
W
01.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Atletico Goianiense
2
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Criciuma
0
1
L
Last matches: Fortaleza EC
09.08.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Cuiaba
1
1
D
29.07.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Botafogo SP
1
0
W
22.07.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Vila Nova
1
2
L
18.07.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Novorizontino
1
0
W
12.07.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Atletico Goianiense
0
1
L
03.07.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Ponte Preta
2
0
W
28.06.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Sport Recife
2
1
W
21.06.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
CRB
1
1
D
16.06.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
America Mineiro
0
3
L
30.05.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Athletic Club
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Londrina
3
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Ceara
1
2
L
10.05.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Avai
0
0
D
02.05.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Goias
4
1
W
26.04.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Operario-PR
0
0
D
19.04.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Criciuma
3
2
W
12.04.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
São Bernardo
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Juventude
2
1
W
31.03.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Cuiaba
0
0
D
21.03.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Botafogo SP
0
4
L
H2H: Nautico Recife vs Fortaleza EC
09.06.26
H2H
Nautico Recife
Fortaleza EC
0
1
L
26.02.23
H2H
Fortaleza EC
Nautico Recife
2
1
L
26.03.22
H2H
Fortaleza EC
Nautico Recife
2
0
L
12.02.22
H2H
Nautico Recife
Fortaleza EC
2
2
D
14.03.20
H2H
Nautico Recife
Fortaleza EC
0
3
L
Last matches: Nautico Recife
09.08.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Atletico Goianiense
1
1
D
23.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Londrina
2
1
W
05.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Juventude
0
0
D
28.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Goias
0
1
L
22.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Cuiaba
1
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
America Mineiro
4
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
São Bernardo
0
3
L
04.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Ponte Preta
1
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Criciuma
0
1
L
H2H at home: Nautico Recife
09.06.26
H2H
Nautico Recife
Fortaleza EC
0
1
L
12.02.22
H2H
Nautico Recife
Fortaleza EC
2
2
D
14.03.20
H2H
Nautico Recife
Fortaleza EC
0
3
L
Last matches: Fortaleza EC
09.08.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Cuiaba
1
1
D
22.07.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Vila Nova
1
2
L
12.07.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Atletico Goianiense
0
1
L
21.06.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
CRB
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Athletic Club
0
1
L
17.05.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Ceara
1
2
L
10.05.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Avai
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Operario-PR
0
0
D
12.04.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
São Bernardo
1
0
W
21.03.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Botafogo SP
0
4
L
H2H away: Fortaleza EC
09.06.26
H2H
Nautico Recife
Fortaleza EC
0
1
W
12.02.22
H2H
Nautico Recife
Fortaleza EC
2
2
D
14.03.20
H2H
Nautico Recife
Fortaleza EC
0
3
W

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 11 7 3 23:14 9 40
L D W W W
2 21 11 5 5 23:12 11 38
W W L W W
3 21 10 5 6 24:20 4 35
D W L W L
4 21 10 5 6 29:28 1 35
L L W D W
5 21 10 4 7 27:25 2 34
L L W L L
6 21 9 6 6 32:20 12 33
L W L L L
7 21 9 5 7 22:26 -4 32
W L D W D
8 21 8 8 5 24:21 3 32
D W W D W
9 21 7 11 3 26:19 7 32
W D D D D
10 21 7 10 4 21:18 3 31
W D W D D
11 21 8 6 7 31:24 7 30
W L L D D
12 20 8 5 7 31:32 -1 29
W W W D L
13 21 7 6 8 26:22 4 27
W L W D D
14 21 7 5 9 25:25 0 26
D D W L L
15 21 5 11 5 16:16 0 26
D D L L D
16 21 6 7 8 22:25 -3 25
W W L D D
17 21 5 5 11 27:32 -5 20
L L L D D
18 20 5 5 10 21:27 -6 20
L W D W L
19 21 2 5 14 15:33 -18 11
L W L D D
20 21 2 3 16 15:41 -26 9
L D L L L
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