🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
27.09.2026 00:30
Geodis Park

Nashville SC vs Toronto FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.1%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nashville SC Win 82.1%
Draw 3.4%
Toronto FC Win 14.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nashville SC1.79
Toronto FC1.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nashville SC Nashville SC
WWDLW
69 GF / 29 GA
Toronto FC Toronto FC
WLDWL
49 GF / 54 GA
Key Stats
1.82
Average Goals Scored
1.58
0.76
Average Goals Conceded
1.74
16
BTTS Yes
24
20
Over 2.5
21
4.35
Shots on Goal
4.42

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nashville SC Nashville SC 38 matches
Toronto FC Toronto FC 31 matches
Nashville SC Statistic Toronto FC
22 Wins 9
10 Draws 12
6 Losses 10
69 Goals For 49
29 Goals Against 54
1.82 Avg Goals Scored 1.58
0.76 Avg Goals Conceded 1.74
16 BTTS Yes 24
23 Over 1.5 27
20 Over 2.5 21
14 Over 3.5 11
18 Clean Sheets 4
9 Failed To Score 5
4.35 Shots On Goal 4.42
11.74 Total Shots 12.12
4.97 Corners 4.96
52.2% Ball Possession 45.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Nashville SC's more proactive style and Toronto FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Toronto FC. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Nashville SC arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 54 points compared to Toronto FC in 12 on 29, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Nashville SC Analysis

Nashville SC come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 1 with 54 points from 25 matches. Their overall return of 16 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 50:21 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Sam Surridge (7 goals), Hany Mukhtar (6 goals), Warren Madrigal (3 goals), with creative support from Cristian Espinoza (6 assists), Hany Mukhtar (5 assists), Andy Najar (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 11 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Toronto FC Analysis

So far, Toronto FC have built a campaign that leaves them 12 in the table on 29 points from 25 matches. Their overall return of 6 wins, 11 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 38:46 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Josh Sargent (5 goals), Dániel Sallói (4 goals), Emilio Aristizábal (4 goals), with creative support from Dániel Sallói (4 assists), Kobe Franklin (2 assists), Theo Corbeanu (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Nashville SC won 6 times, Toronto FC won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:12 from Nashville SC's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.64 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.6%)
Predicted formations: Nashville SC 4-2-3-1 / Toronto FC 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Nashville SC wins 6, draws 3, Toronto FC wins 2

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 17 6 3 53:21 32 57
W D L D W
2 26 14 4 8 45:33 12 46
W W W L W
3 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
4 26 12 7 7 47:37 10 43
W D W D W
5 25 11 6 8 45:38 7 39
L L D D D
6 26 10 6 10 50:42 8 36
W W W W W
7 26 10 4 12 46:60 -14 34
L W W W D
8 26 9 6 11 34:48 -14 33
W W L D L
9 25 8 9 8 54:61 -7 33
D D L L D
10 26 8 8 10 39:34 5 32
L W L D D
11 25 6 11 8 31:39 -8 29
L D W D L
12 26 6 11 9 39:49 -10 29
L L W D D
13 26 7 5 14 37:42 -5 26
W L L W L
14 26 7 5 14 30:43 -13 26
W D L D L
15 26 5 6 15 31:53 -22 21
L L L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)