🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
10.05.2026 01:15
Geodis Park
Referee: Joshua Encarnacion, USA
Nashville SC
Match Timeline
DC United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
25'
L. Munteanu · Assist: S. Hefti
DC United
29'
L. Bartlett · Assist: K. Kurokawa
DC United
VAR
31'
Lucas Bartlett
DC United
🟨
36'
Hany Mukhtar
Nashville SC
🟨
45+3'
Silvan Hefti
DC United
🟨
55'
Bryan Acosta
Nashville SC
VAR
62'
Jeisson Palacios
Nashville SC
🔄
62'
A. Muyl ↔ W. Madrigal
Nashville SC
🔄
62'
B. Acosta ↔ C. Brunet
Nashville SC
🔄
67'
J. Stroud ↔ A. Herrera
DC United
🟨
72'
Jeisson Palacios
Nashville SC
🟨
74'
Silvan Hefti
DC United
🟥
74'
Silvan Hefti
DC United
76'
W. Madrigal
Nashville SC
🔄
77'
J. Hopkins ↔ N. Markovic
DC United
🔄
79'
J. Palacios ↔ M. Woledzi
Nashville SC
🔄
84'
L. Munteanu ↔ T. Baribo
DC United
🔄
88'
D. Lovitz ↔ R. Baker-Whiting
Nashville SC
🔄
88'
A. Qasem ↔ W. Pacius
Nashville SC
89'
W. Madrigal · Assist: A. Najar
Nashville SC

Nashville SC vs DC United Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 59.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.5%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
59.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
85.3%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nashville SC Win 57.5%
Draw 12.3%
DC United Win 30.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nashville SC1.55
DC United0.86
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nashville SC Nashville SC
WWDLW
37 GF / 14 GA
DC United DC United
WLDWL
14 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.68
Average Goals Scored
1
0.64
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
8
BTTS Yes
5
9
Over 2.5
6
4.44
Shots on Goal
3.55

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nashville SC Nashville SC 22 matches
DC United DC United 14 matches
Nashville SC Statistic DC United
12 Wins 4
6 Draws 5
4 Losses 5
37 Goals For 14
14 Goals Against 19
1.68 Avg Goals Scored 1
0.64 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
8 BTTS Yes 5
12 Over 1.5 7
9 Over 2.5 6
7 Over 3.5 4
11 Clean Sheets 6
7 Failed To Score 7
4.44 Shots On Goal 3.55
11.61 Total Shots 11.36
4.39 Corners 4.09
51.3% Ball Possession 40.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Nashville SC's more proactive style and DC United's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward DC United. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Nashville SC arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 23 points compared to DC United in 5 on 15, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Nashville SC Analysis

Nashville SC approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 23 points after 10 outings. With 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 21:6, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by S. Surridge (9 goals), C. Espinoza (3 goals), H. Mukhtar (3 goals), with creative support from C. Espinoza (3 assists), H. Mukhtar (3 assists), P. Yazbek (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

DC United Analysis

DC United come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 15 points from 11 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, while the 13:15 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on T. Baribo (6 goals), Louis Munteanu (3 goals), Jackson Hopkins (2 goals), with creative support from Peglow (3 assists), Jackson Hopkins (1 assists), J. Murrell (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Nashville SC won 7 times, DC United won 2 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 31:18 from Nashville SC's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.7%)
Predicted formations: Nashville SC 4-4-2 / DC United 4-4-2
Missing players: Nashville SC 4, DC United 4
H2H summary: Nashville SC wins 7, draws 6, DC United wins 2

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 16 6 3 50:21 29 54
D L D W W
2 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
3 25 13 4 8 41:31 10 43
W W L W D
4 25 11 7 7 45:36 9 40
D W D W W
5 24 11 6 7 45:35 10 39
L D D D D
6 25 10 4 11 44:56 -12 34
W W W D W
7 25 9 6 10 46:39 7 33
W W W W D
8 25 8 8 9 39:33 6 32
W L D D D
9 24 8 8 8 52:59 -7 32
D L L D W
10 25 8 6 11 33:48 -15 30
W L D L D
11 24 6 11 7 30:37 -7 29
D W D L L
12 25 6 11 8 38:46 -8 29
L W D D W
13 25 6 5 14 35:42 -7 23
L L W L L
14 25 6 5 14 29:43 -14 23
D L D L W
15 25 5 6 14 31:51 -20 21
L L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)