🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
20.09.2026 01:30
Geodis Park

Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 70.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
70.1%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nashville SC Win 70.1%
Draw 3.6%
Chicago Fire Win 26.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nashville SC1.64
Chicago Fire1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nashville SC Nashville SC
WWDLW
66 GF / 29 GA
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire
WLDWL
54 GF / 43 GA
Key Stats
1.78
Average Goals Scored
1.8
0.78
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
16
BTTS Yes
21
19
Over 2.5
21
4.33
Shots on Goal
5.25

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nashville SC Nashville SC 37 matches
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 30 matches
Nashville SC Statistic Chicago Fire
21 Wins 13
10 Draws 9
6 Losses 8
66 Goals For 54
29 Goals Against 43
1.78 Avg Goals Scored 1.8
0.78 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
16 BTTS Yes 21
22 Over 1.5 24
19 Over 2.5 21
14 Over 3.5 12
17 Clean Sheets 9
9 Failed To Score 3
4.33 Shots On Goal 5.25
11.7 Total Shots 14.08
4.97 Corners 4.5
52.1% Ball Possession 51.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nashville SC expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Chicago Fire in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Chicago Fire having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Chicago Fire. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Nashville SC Analysis

Nashville SC approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 53 points after 24 outings. With 16 wins, 5 draws, and 3 defeats plus a goal balance of 48:19, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by S. Surridge (6 goals), H. Mukhtar (5 goals), Warren Madrigal (3 goals), with creative support from H. Mukhtar (5 assists), C. Espinoza (5 assists), A. Najar (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, the split of 11 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Chicago Fire Analysis

Chicago Fire come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 39 points from 23 matches. Their overall return of 11 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 44:33 reflects poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Their attacking weight is carried by Hugo Cuypers (8 goals), M. Haile-Selassie (6 goals), P. Zinckernagel (5 goals), with creative support from P. Zinckernagel (7 assists), M. Haile-Selassie (4 assists), A. Gutman (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Nashville SC won 6 times, Chicago Fire won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:6 from Nashville SC's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.4%)
Predicted formations: Nashville SC 4-2-3-1 / Chicago Fire 4-3-3
H2H summary: Nashville SC wins 6, draws 2, Chicago Fire wins 2

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 16 6 3 50:21 29 54
D L D W W
2 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
3 25 13 4 8 41:31 10 43
W W L W D
4 25 11 7 7 45:36 9 40
D W D W W
5 24 11 6 7 45:35 10 39
L D D D D
6 25 10 4 11 44:56 -12 34
W W W D W
7 25 8 8 9 39:33 6 32
W L D D D
8 24 8 8 8 52:59 -7 32
D L L D W
9 24 8 6 10 41:39 2 30
W W W D D
10 25 8 6 11 33:48 -15 30
W L D L D
11 24 6 11 7 30:37 -7 29
D W D L L
12 25 6 11 8 38:46 -8 29
L W D D W
13 25 6 5 14 35:42 -7 23
L L W L L
14 25 6 5 14 29:43 -14 23
D L D L W
15 25 5 6 14 31:51 -20 21
L L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)