🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
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Geodis Park

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 81.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 76.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77.6%
-
BTTS Yes
81.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
76.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nashville SC Win 77.6%
Draw 4.5%
Atlanta United FC Win 17.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nashville SC1.66
Atlanta United FC1.02
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nashville SC Nashville SC
WWDLW
47 GF / 19 GA
Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC
WLDWL
22 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.81
Average Goals Scored
1.22
0.73
Average Goals Conceded
1.44
11
BTTS Yes
10
13
Over 2.5
9
4.59
Shots on Goal
4.07

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nashville SC Nashville SC 26 matches
Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 18 matches
Nashville SC Statistic Atlanta United FC
15 Wins 5
7 Draws 4
4 Losses 9
47 Goals For 22
19 Goals Against 26
1.81 Avg Goals Scored 1.22
0.73 Avg Goals Conceded 1.44
11 BTTS Yes 10
16 Over 1.5 15
13 Over 2.5 9
9 Over 3.5 6
12 Clean Sheets 3
7 Failed To Score 7
4.59 Shots On Goal 4.07
11.45 Total Shots 13.29
4.68 Corners 5.21
52.1% Ball Possession 52.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Nashville SC's more proactive style and Atlanta United FC's more cautious structure. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Nashville SC arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 33 points compared to Atlanta United FC in 14 on 11, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nashville SC expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Atlanta United FC in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atlanta United FC having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Atlanta United FC.

Nashville SC Analysis

Nashville SC come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 33 points after 14 matches. The return of 10 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 31:11, reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through S. Surridge (9 goals), H. Mukhtar (6 goals), W. Madrigal (5 goals), with creative support from C. Espinoza (6 assists), H. Mukhtar (3 assists), P. Yazbek (3 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. Although they are without P. Yazbek, A. Najar, E. Tagseth, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

Atlanta United FC Analysis

Atlanta United FC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 11 points from 14 matches. The overall return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 9 defeats with a 14:23 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Miranchuk (5 goals), A. Fortune (2 goals), Emmanuel Latte Lath (2 goals), with creative support from M. Almiron (3 assists), A. Miranchuk (2 assists), E. Baez (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with S. Alzate, E. Latte Lath, F. Picault unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Nashville SC won 6 times, Atlanta United FC won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:22 from Nashville SC's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.5%)
Predicted formations: Nashville SC 4-3-3 / Atlanta United FC 4-1-4-1
Missing players: Nashville SC 3, Atlanta United FC 3
H2H summary: Nashville SC wins 6, draws 5, Atlanta United FC wins 4
Last matches: Nashville SC
24.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
New York City FC
2
1
W
18.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Los Angeles FC
3
2
W
13.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
New England Revolution
3
0
W
10.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
DC United
2
2
D
06.05.26
CON
Nashville SC
Tigres UANL
0
1
L
02.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Philadelphia Union
0
0
D
29.04.26
CON
Nashville SC
Tigres UANL
0
1
L
26.04.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Charlotte
4
2
W
18.04.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
2
0
W
15.04.26
CON
Nashville SC
Club America
1
0
W
11.04.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Charlotte
2
1
W
08.04.26
CON
Nashville SC
Club America
0
0
D
05.04.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Chicago Fire
0
1
L
21.03.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Orlando City SC
5
0
W
18.03.26
CON
Nashville SC
Inter Miami
1
1
D
14.03.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Columbus Crew
1
0
W
11.03.26
CON
Nashville SC
Inter Miami
0
0
D
08.03.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Minnesota United FC
3
1
W
01.03.26
Maj
Nashville SC
FC Dallas
0
0
D
25.02.26
CON
Nashville SC
Atlético Ottawa
5
0
W
Last matches: Atlanta United FC
24.05.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Columbus Crew
0
2
L
16.05.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Orlando City SC
1
1
D
09.05.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Los Angeles Galaxy
1
2
L
02.05.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
CF Montreal
3
1
W
25.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Toronto FC
2
1
W
22.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
New England Revolution
1
2
L
18.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
0
2
L
12.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Chicago Fire
0
1
L
04.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Columbus Crew
1
3
L
21.03.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
DC United
0
0
D
14.03.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Philadelphia Union
3
1
W
08.03.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Real Salt Lake
2
3
L
01.03.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
San Jose Earthquakes
0
2
L
21.02.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
FC Cincinnati
0
2
L
14.02.26
Fri
Atlanta United FC
FC Dallas
0
0
D
11.02.26
Fri
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
3
2
W
08.02.26
Fri
Atlanta United FC
Houston Dynamo
1
1
D
30.01.26
Fri
Atlanta United FC
Lexington
4
0
W
H2H: Nashville SC vs Atlanta United FC
18.04.26
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
0
2
W
31.08.25
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
0
1
L
03.05.25
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
1
1
D
14.09.24
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
0
2
W
18.05.24
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
1
1
D
26.08.23
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
4
0
L
29.04.23
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
3
1
W
21.05.22
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
2
2
D
12.05.22
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
3
2
W
28.08.21
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
0
2
W
09.07.21
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
2
2
D
29.05.21
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
2
2
D
13.09.20
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
4
2
W
22.08.20
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
2
0
L
01.03.20
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
1
2
L
Last matches: Nashville SC
24.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
New York City FC
2
1
W
18.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Los Angeles FC
3
2
W
10.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
DC United
2
2
D
29.04.26
CON
Nashville SC
Tigres UANL
0
1
L
26.04.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Charlotte
4
2
W
08.04.26
CON
Nashville SC
Club America
0
0
D
21.03.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Orlando City SC
5
0
W
11.03.26
CON
Nashville SC
Inter Miami
0
0
D
08.03.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Minnesota United FC
3
1
W
25.02.26
CON
Nashville SC
Atlético Ottawa
5
0
W
22.02.26
Maj
Nashville SC
New England Revolution
4
1
W
14.02.26
Fri
Nashville SC
Lexington
1
2
L
11.02.26
Fri
Nashville SC
Columbus Crew
1
0
W
23.01.26
Fri
Nashville SC
Colorado Rapids
3
1
W
H2H at home: Nashville SC
31.08.25
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
0
1
L
18.05.24
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
1
1
D
29.04.23
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
3
1
W
21.05.22
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
2
2
D
12.05.22
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
3
2
W
09.07.21
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
2
2
D
13.09.20
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
4
2
W
01.03.20
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
1
2
L
Last matches: Atlanta United FC
24.05.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Columbus Crew
0
2
L
16.05.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Orlando City SC
1
1
D
25.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Toronto FC
2
1
W
12.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Chicago Fire
0
1
L
01.03.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
San Jose Earthquakes
0
2
L
21.02.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
FC Cincinnati
0
2
L
08.02.26
Fri
Atlanta United FC
Houston Dynamo
1
1
D
H2H away: Atlanta United FC
31.08.25
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
0
1
W
18.05.24
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
1
1
D
29.04.23
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
3
1
L
21.05.22
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
2
2
D
12.05.22
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
3
2
L
09.07.21
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
2
2
D
13.09.20
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
4
2
L
01.03.20
H2H
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
1
2
W

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 14 10 3 1 31:11 20 33
W W W D D
2 15 9 4 2 39:28 11 31
W W W W L
3 14 8 2 4 27:16 11 26
W W W L L
4 14 8 1 5 22:18 4 25
L W L W W
5 15 6 4 5 25:32 -7 22
W D W W L
6 15 6 3 6 24:23 1 21
W W L D L
7 15 5 5 5 36:37 -1 20
W D L D W
8 15 5 4 6 25:21 4 19
L D W W L
9 15 4 6 5 21:25 -4 18
D D L D W
10 15 4 4 7 21:23 -2 16
W D L L L
11 14 4 2 8 22:31 -9 14
D L D W L
12 15 4 2 9 23:44 -21 14
L D W L W
13 14 3 5 6 22:29 -7 14
L L L D L
14 14 3 2 9 14:23 -9 11
L D L W W
15 15 1 4 10 18:30 -12 7
L D L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)

Missing Players

Nashville SC 3 missing
-
P. Yazbek
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
A. Najar
Questionable Thigh Injury
OUT
-
E. Tagseth
Questionable Leg Injury
OUT
Atlanta United FC 3 missing
-
S. Alzate
Missing Fixture Groin Injury
OUT
-
E. Latte Lath
Missing Fixture Illness
OUT
-
F. Picault
Questionable Hamstring Injury
OUT