🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
18.07.2026 00:10
Geodis Park
Referee: F. Dujic
Nashville SC
Match Timeline
Atlanta United FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
11'
A. Fortune ↔ W. Reilly
Atlanta United FC
🔄
62'
M. Edwards ↔ R. Hernandez
Atlanta United FC
🔄
63'
J. Bauer ↔ A. Najar
Nashville SC
🔄
63'
E. Tagseth ↔ B. Acosta
Nashville SC
🔄
73'
J. Maher ↔ J. Palacios
Nashville SC
🔄
73'
A. Qasem ↔ A. Muyl
Nashville SC
79'
S. Mohammed · Assist: A. Muyl
Nashville SC
🔄
83'
L. Brennan ↔ F. Picault
Atlanta United FC
🔄
83'
C. Sanchez ↔ E. Latte Lath
Atlanta United FC
🟨
85'
Shakur Mohammed
Nashville SC
🟨
90+10'
Enea Mihaj
Atlanta United FC
🔄
90+5'
S. Mohammed ↔ J. Knight
Nashville SC

Nashville SC vs Atlanta United FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 81.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 76.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77.6%
-
BTTS Yes
81.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
76.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nashville SC Win 77.6%
Draw 4.5%
Atlanta United FC Win 17.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nashville SC1.66
Atlanta United FC1.02
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nashville SC Nashville SC
WWDLW
47 GF / 19 GA
Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC
WLDWL
22 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.81
Average Goals Scored
1.22
0.73
Average Goals Conceded
1.44
11
BTTS Yes
10
13
Over 2.5
9
4.59
Shots on Goal
4.07

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nashville SC Nashville SC 26 matches
Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 18 matches
Nashville SC Statistic Atlanta United FC
15 Wins 5
7 Draws 4
4 Losses 9
47 Goals For 22
19 Goals Against 26
1.81 Avg Goals Scored 1.22
0.73 Avg Goals Conceded 1.44
11 BTTS Yes 10
16 Over 1.5 15
13 Over 2.5 9
9 Over 3.5 6
12 Clean Sheets 3
7 Failed To Score 7
4.59 Shots On Goal 4.07
11.45 Total Shots 13.29
4.68 Corners 5.21
52.1% Ball Possession 52.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Nashville SC's more proactive style and Atlanta United FC's more cautious structure. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Nashville SC arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 33 points compared to Atlanta United FC in 14 on 11, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nashville SC expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Atlanta United FC in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atlanta United FC having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Atlanta United FC.

Nashville SC Analysis

Nashville SC come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 33 points after 14 matches. The return of 10 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 31:11, reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through S. Surridge (9 goals), H. Mukhtar (6 goals), W. Madrigal (5 goals), with creative support from C. Espinoza (6 assists), H. Mukhtar (3 assists), P. Yazbek (3 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. Although they are without P. Yazbek, A. Najar, E. Tagseth, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

Atlanta United FC Analysis

Atlanta United FC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 11 points from 14 matches. The overall return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 9 defeats with a 14:23 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Miranchuk (5 goals), A. Fortune (2 goals), Emmanuel Latte Lath (2 goals), with creative support from M. Almiron (3 assists), A. Miranchuk (2 assists), E. Baez (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with S. Alzate, E. Latte Lath, F. Picault unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Nashville SC won 7 times, Atlanta United FC won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:20 from Nashville SC's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.5%)
Predicted formations: Nashville SC 4-3-3 / Atlanta United FC 4-1-4-1
Missing players: Nashville SC 3, Atlanta United FC 3
H2H summary: Nashville SC wins 7, draws 5, Atlanta United FC wins 3

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 17 6 3 53:21 32 57
W D L D W
2 26 14 4 8 45:33 12 46
W W W L W
3 26 12 10 4 63:48 15 46
D D D D W
4 26 12 7 7 47:37 10 43
W D W D W
5 25 11 6 8 45:38 7 39
L L D D D
6 26 10 6 10 50:42 8 36
W W W W W
7 26 10 4 12 46:60 -14 34
L W W W D
8 26 9 6 11 34:48 -14 33
W W L D L
9 25 8 9 8 54:61 -7 33
D D L L D
10 26 8 8 10 39:34 5 32
L W L D D
11 25 6 11 8 31:39 -8 29
L D W D L
12 26 6 11 9 39:49 -10 29
L L W D D
13 26 7 5 14 37:42 -5 26
W L L W L
14 26 7 5 14 30:43 -13 26
W D L D L
15 26 5 6 15 31:53 -22 21
L L L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)