ITALY SERIE A
18.04.2026 16:00
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Referee: L. Zufferli
Napoli
Match Timeline
Lazio
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
6'
M. Cancellieri · Assist: K. Taylor
Lazio
🟨
29'
Stanislav Lobotka
Napoli
🟨
33'
Danilo Cataldi
Lazio
🔄
46'
K. De Bruyne ↔ E. Elmas
Napoli
🔄
46'
F. Anguissa ↔ Alisson Santos
Napoli
57'
T. Basic · Assist: M. Cancellieri
Lazio
🟨
60'
Kenneth Taylor
Lazio
🔄
61'
D. Cataldi ↔ Patric
Lazio
🔄
61'
M. Zaccagni ↔ B. Dia
Lazio
🔄
61'
M. Gila ↔ O. Provstgaard
Lazio
🔄
63'
L. Spinazzola ↔ M. Gutierrez
Napoli
🔄
63'
S. Lobotka ↔ Giovane
Napoli
🔄
71'
T. Basic ↔ F. Dele-Bashiru
Lazio
🔄
72'
M. Politano ↔ P. Mazzocchi
Napoli
🔄
82'
M. Lazzari ↔ E. Hysaj
Lazio
🟨
90+1'
Boulaye Dia
Lazio

Napoli vs Lazio Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 56.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 50.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
70.3%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
56.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
50.5%
-
Probability Distribution
Napoli Win 70.3%
Draw 5.1%
Lazio Win 24.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Napoli1.23
Lazio1.05
Recent Form (Last 5)
Napoli Napoli
WWDLW
63 GF / 48 GA
Lazio Lazio
WLDWL
36 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
1.43
Average Goals Scored
1.03
1.09
Average Goals Conceded
0.94
23
BTTS Yes
10
20
Over 2.5
9
4.59
Shots on Goal
3.8

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Napoli Napoli 44 matches
Lazio Lazio 35 matches
Napoli Statistic Lazio
24 Wins 12
10 Draws 13
10 Losses 10
63 Goals For 36
48 Goals Against 33
1.43 Avg Goals Scored 1.03
1.09 Avg Goals Conceded 0.94
23 BTTS Yes 10
33 Over 1.5 21
20 Over 2.5 9
10 Over 3.5 6
15 Clean Sheets 15
9 Failed To Score 15
4.59 Shots On Goal 3.8
12.68 Total Shots 10.69
5.55 Corners 3.74
56.6% Ball Possession 50.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Lazio. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Napoli expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Lazio in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lazio having the stronger overall control. Napoli arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 66 points compared to Lazio in 10 on 44, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Napoli come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Napoli Analysis

Napoli approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 66 points after 32 outings. They have recorded 20 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, with a 48:31 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on R. Hojlund (10 goals), S. McTominay (8 goals), F. Anguissa (4 goals), with creative support from M. Politano (5 assists), R. Hojlund (3 assists), S. McTominay (3 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split of 11 wins, 4 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with David Neres, G. Di Lorenzo, A. Vergara unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Lazio Analysis

So far, Lazio have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 44 points from 32 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 11 wins, 11 draws, and 10 losses, while the 32:29 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on G. Isaksen (4 goals), Danilo Cataldi (3 goals), K. Taylor (3 goals), with creative support from Danilo Cataldi (3 assists), Valentín Castellanos (3 assists), Adam Marušić (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with S. Gigot, I. Provedel, N. Rovella unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Napoli won 7 times, Lazio won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:18 from Napoli's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95%)
Predicted formations: Napoli 3-4-2-1 / Lazio 4-3-3
Missing players: Napoli 4, Lazio 5
H2H summary: Napoli wins 7, draws 2, Lazio wins 6

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9
Lazio Away
38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B