ITALY SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Referee: M. Piccinini
Napoli
Match Timeline
Bologna
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
10'
F. Bernardeschi · Assist: J. Miranda
Bologna
VAR
33'
Juan Miranda
Bologna
34'
R. Orsolini
Bologna
🟨
38'
João Mário
Bologna
45'
G. Di Lorenzo
Napoli
🟨
47'
Federico Bernardeschi
Bologna
48'
Alisson Santos · Assist: R. Hojlund
Napoli
🟨
58'
Eivind Helland
Bologna
🔄
64'
Joao Mario ↔ N. Zortea
Bologna
🟨
69'
Jhon Lucumí
Bologna
🔄
73'
F. Bernardeschi ↔ J. Rowe
Bologna
🔄
76'
Giovane ↔ E. Elmas
Napoli
🔄
76'
S. Lobotka ↔ B. Gilmour
Napoli
🔄
81'
T. Pobega ↔ N. Moro
Bologna
🔄
81'
L. Ferguson ↔ S. Sohm
Bologna
🔄
82'
E. Fauske Helland ↔ T. Heggem
Bologna
🟨
84'
Matteo Politano
Napoli
🔄
85'
M. Politano ↔ L. Spinazzola
Napoli
🔄
87'
M. Gutierrez ↔ P. Mazzocchi
Napoli
90'
J. Rowe
Bologna

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 63%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 62.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 62.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
63%
-
BTTS BTTS No
62.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
62.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Napoli Win 63%
Draw 4.2%
Bologna Win 32.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Napoli1.34
Bologna1.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
Napoli Napoli
WWDLW
67 GF / 50 GA
Bologna Bologna
WLDWL
68 GF / 64 GA
Key Stats
1.43
Average Goals Scored
1.28
1.06
Average Goals Conceded
1.21
23
BTTS Yes
26
21
Over 2.5
24
4.51
Shots on Goal
4.47

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Napoli Napoli 47 matches
Bologna Bologna 53 matches
Napoli Statistic Bologna
25 Wins 22
11 Draws 13
11 Losses 18
67 Goals For 68
50 Goals Against 64
1.43 Avg Goals Scored 1.28
1.06 Avg Goals Conceded 1.21
23 BTTS Yes 26
35 Over 1.5 39
21 Over 2.5 24
11 Over 3.5 13
17 Clean Sheets 15
11 Failed To Score 15
4.51 Shots On Goal 4.47
12.83 Total Shots 14.32
5.64 Corners 5.4
56.5% Ball Possession 54.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Bologna seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Napoli arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 70 points compared to Bologna in 10 on 49, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Bologna. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Napoli expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Bologna in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bologna having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Napoli Analysis

Placed 2 with 70 points from 35 outings, Napoli continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 21 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, while the 52:33 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on R. Hojlund (10 goals), S. McTominay (9 goals), K. De Bruyne (5 goals), with creative support from M. Politano (5 assists), R. Hojlund (3 assists), S. McTominay (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 12 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with David Neres, R. Lukaku unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Bologna Analysis

So far, Bologna have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 49 points from 35 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 14 wins, 7 draws, and 14 losses, while the 42:41 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on R. Orsolini (8 goals), S. Castro (7 goals), J. Odgaard (5 goals), with creative support from Nicolò Cambiaghi (4 assists), E. Holm (4 assists), B. Dominguez (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with N. Casale, M. Vitik, N. Cambiaghi unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Napoli won 7 times, Bologna won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:16 from Napoli's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.8%)
Predicted formations: Napoli 3-4-2-1 / Bologna 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Napoli 2, Bologna 4
H2H summary: Napoli wins 7, draws 4, Bologna wins 4
Stats
Napoli Napoli
Bologna Bologna
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
1
7 Corner Kicks 1
10 Fouls 12
4 Offsides 0
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Goal 4
5 Shots off Goal 5
4 Blocked Shots 1
11 Shots insidebox 5
3 Shots outsidebox 5
1 Goalkeeper Saves 3
484 Total passes 458
425 Passes accurate 386
0.80 expected_goals 1.26
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Napoli
Formation
Bologna
V. Milinkovic-Savic
V. Milinkovic-Savic
G. Di Lorenzo
G. Di Lorenzo
A. Rrahmani
A. Rrahmani
A. Buongiorno
A. Buongiorno
M. Politano
M. Politano
S. Lobotka
S. Lobotka
S. McTominay
S. McTominay
M. Gutierrez
M. Gutierrez
Giovane
Giovane
Alisson Santos
Alisson Santos
R. Hojlund
🎯
R. Hojlund
M. Pessina
M. Pessina
Joao Mario
Joao Mario
E. Fauske Helland
E. Fauske Helland
J. Lucumi
J. Lucumi
J. Miranda
🎯
J. Miranda
T. Pobega
T. Pobega
R. Freuler
R. Freuler
L. Ferguson
L. Ferguson
R. Orsolini
R. Orsolini
S. Castro
S. Castro
F. Bernardeschi
F. Bernardeschi
Napoli 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
32
V. Milinkovic-Savic
G
22
G. Di Lorenzo
⚽ 45'
D
13
A. Rrahmani
D
4
A. Buongiorno
D
21
M. Politano
↓ 85' 🟨 84'
M
68
S. Lobotka
↓ 76'
M
8
S. McTominay
M
3
M. Gutierrez
↓ 87'
M
23
Giovane
↓ 76'
F
27
Alisson Santos
⚽ 48'
F
19
R. Hojlund
🎯 48'
F
Substitutes
1
A. Meret
G
14
N. Contini
G
5
Juan Jesus
D
30
P. Mazzocchi
↑ 87'
D
20
E. Elmas
↑ 76'
M
17
M. Olivera
D
31
S. Beukema
D
26
A. Vergara
M
37
L. Spinazzola
↑ 85'
D
99
F. Anguissa
M
6
B. Gilmour
↑ 76'
M
Bologna 4-3-3
Starting XI
25
M. Pessina
G
17
Joao Mario
↓ 64' 🟨 38'
D
5
E. Fauske Helland
↓ 82' 🟨 58'
D
26
J. Lucumi
🟨 69'
D
33
J. Miranda
🎯 10'
D
4
T. Pobega
↓ 81'
M
8
R. Freuler
M
19
L. Ferguson
↓ 81'
M
7
R. Orsolini
⚽ 34'
F
9
S. Castro
F
10
F. Bernardeschi
⚽ 10' ↓ 73' 🟨 47'
F
Substitutes
13
F. Ravaglia
G
1
L. Skorupski
G
29
L. De Silvestri
D
6
N. Moro
↑ 81'
M
14
T. Heggem
↑ 82'
D
20
N. Zortea
↑ 64'
D
24
T. Dallinga
F
11
J. Rowe
⚽ 90' ↑ 73'
F
30
B. Dominguez
F
22
C. Lykogiannis
D
21
J. Odgaard
F
23
S. Sohm
↑ 81'
M
Last matches: Napoli
24.05.26
Ser
Napoli
Udinese
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Napoli
Pisa
3
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Napoli
Como
0
0
D
24.04.26
Ser
Napoli
Cremonese
4
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Napoli
Lazio
0
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Napoli
Parma
1
1
D
06.04.26
Ser
Napoli
AC Milan
1
0
W
20.03.26
Ser
Napoli
Cagliari
1
0
W
14.03.26
Ser
Napoli
Lecce
2
1
W
06.03.26
Ser
Napoli
Torino
2
1
W
28.02.26
Ser
Napoli
Hellas Verona
2
1
W
22.02.26
Ser
Napoli
Atalanta
1
2
L
15.02.26
Ser
Napoli
AS Roma
2
2
D
10.02.26
Cop
Napoli
Como
1
1
D
07.02.26
Ser
Napoli
Genoa
3
2
W
31.01.26
Ser
Napoli
Fiorentina
2
1
W
28.01.26
UEF
Napoli
Chelsea
2
3
L
25.01.26
Ser
Napoli
Juventus
0
3
L
20.01.26
UEF
Napoli
FC Copenhagen
1
1
D
17.01.26
Ser
Napoli
Sassuolo
1
0
W
Last matches: Bologna
23.05.26
Ser
Bologna
Inter
3
3
D
17.05.26
Ser
Bologna
Atalanta
1
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Bologna
Cagliari
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Bologna
AS Roma
0
2
L
19.04.26
Ser
Bologna
Juventus
0
2
L
16.04.26
UEF
Bologna
Aston Villa
0
4
L
12.04.26
Ser
Bologna
Lecce
2
0
W
09.04.26
UEF
Bologna
Aston Villa
1
3
L
05.04.26
Ser
Bologna
Cremonese
2
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Bologna
Lazio
0
2
L
19.03.26
UEF
Bologna
AS Roma
4
3
W
15.03.26
Ser
Bologna
Sassuolo
1
0
W
12.03.26
UEF
Bologna
AS Roma
1
1
D
08.03.26
Ser
Bologna
Hellas Verona
1
2
L
02.03.26
Ser
Bologna
Pisa
1
0
W
26.02.26
UEF
Bologna
Brann
1
0
W
23.02.26
Ser
Bologna
Udinese
1
0
W
19.02.26
UEF
Bologna
Brann
1
0
W
15.02.26
Ser
Bologna
Torino
2
1
W
11.02.26
Cop
Bologna
Lazio
1
1
D
H2H: Napoli vs Bologna
11.05.26
H2H
Napoli
Bologna
2
3
L
22.12.25
H2H
Napoli
Bologna
2
0
W
09.11.25
H2H
Bologna
Napoli
2
0
L
07.04.25
H2H
Bologna
Napoli
1
1
D
25.08.24
H2H
Napoli
Bologna
3
0
W
11.05.24
H2H
Napoli
Bologna
0
2
L
24.09.23
H2H
Bologna
Napoli
0
0
D
28.05.23
H2H
Bologna
Napoli
2
2
D
16.10.22
H2H
Napoli
Bologna
3
2
W
17.01.22
H2H
Bologna
Napoli
0
2
W
28.10.21
H2H
Napoli
Bologna
3
0
W
07.03.21
H2H
Napoli
Bologna
3
1
W
08.11.20
H2H
Bologna
Napoli
0
1
W
15.07.20
H2H
Bologna
Napoli
1
1
D
01.12.19
H2H
Napoli
Bologna
1
2
L
Last matches: Napoli
24.05.26
Ser
Napoli
Udinese
1
0
W
24.04.26
Ser
Napoli
Cremonese
4
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Napoli
Lazio
0
2
L
06.04.26
Ser
Napoli
AC Milan
1
0
W
14.03.26
Ser
Napoli
Lecce
2
1
W
06.03.26
Ser
Napoli
Torino
2
1
W
15.02.26
Ser
Napoli
AS Roma
2
2
D
10.02.26
Cop
Napoli
Como
1
1
D
31.01.26
Ser
Napoli
Fiorentina
2
1
W
28.01.26
UEF
Napoli
Chelsea
2
3
L
17.01.26
Ser
Napoli
Sassuolo
1
0
W
14.01.26
Ser
Napoli
Parma
0
0
D
07.01.26
Ser
Napoli
Hellas Verona
2
2
D
22.12.25
Sup
Napoli
Bologna
2
0
W
18.12.25
Sup
Napoli
AC Milan
2
0
W
07.12.25
Ser
Napoli
Juventus
2
1
W
03.12.25
Cop
Napoli
Cagliari
1
1
D
25.11.25
UEF
Napoli
Qarabag
2
0
W
22.11.25
Ser
Napoli
Atalanta
3
1
W
04.11.25
UEF
Napoli
Eintracht Frankfurt
0
0
D
H2H at home: Napoli
11.05.26
H2H
Napoli
Bologna
2
3
L
22.12.25
H2H
Napoli
Bologna
2
0
W
25.08.24
H2H
Napoli
Bologna
3
0
W
11.05.24
H2H
Napoli
Bologna
0
2
L
16.10.22
H2H
Napoli
Bologna
3
2
W
28.10.21
H2H
Napoli
Bologna
3
0
W
07.03.21
H2H
Napoli
Bologna
3
1
W
01.12.19
H2H
Napoli
Bologna
1
2
L
Last matches: Bologna
17.05.26
Ser
Bologna
Atalanta
1
0
W
19.04.26
Ser
Bologna
Juventus
0
2
L
16.04.26
UEF
Bologna
Aston Villa
0
4
L
05.04.26
Ser
Bologna
Cremonese
2
1
W
19.03.26
UEF
Bologna
AS Roma
4
3
W
15.03.26
Ser
Bologna
Sassuolo
1
0
W
02.03.26
Ser
Bologna
Pisa
1
0
W
19.02.26
UEF
Bologna
Brann
1
0
W
15.02.26
Ser
Bologna
Torino
2
1
W
29.01.26
UEF
Bologna
Maccabi Tel Aviv
3
0
W
25.01.26
Ser
Bologna
Genoa
2
3
L
15.01.26
Ser
Bologna
Hellas Verona
3
2
W
10.01.26
Ser
Bologna
Como
1
1
D
04.01.26
Ser
Bologna
Inter
1
3
L
22.12.25
Sup
Bologna
Napoli
0
2
L
11.12.25
UEF
Bologna
Celta Vigo
2
1
W
07.12.25
Ser
Bologna
Lazio
1
1
D
22.11.25
Ser
Bologna
Udinese
3
0
W
02.11.25
Ser
Bologna
Parma
3
1
W
26.10.25
Ser
Bologna
Fiorentina
2
2
D
H2H away: Bologna
11.05.26
H2H
Napoli
Bologna
2
3
W
22.12.25
H2H
Napoli
Bologna
2
0
L
25.08.24
H2H
Napoli
Bologna
3
0
L
11.05.24
H2H
Napoli
Bologna
0
2
W
16.10.22
H2H
Napoli
Bologna
3
2
L
28.10.21
H2H
Napoli
Bologna
3
0
L
07.03.21
H2H
Napoli
Bologna
3
1
L
01.12.19
H2H
Napoli
Bologna
1
2
W

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L

Missing Players

Napoli 2 missing
-
David Neres
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
R. Lukaku
Missing Fixture Hip Injury
OUT
Bologna 4 missing
-
N. Casale
Missing Fixture Calf Injury
OUT
-
M. Vitik
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
N. Cambiaghi
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
K. Bonifazi
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT