FRANCE › LIGUE 1
17.05.2026 19:00
Stade de la Beaujoire
Referee: S. Frappart

Nantes vs Toulouse Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 88.1%
Odds 1.30
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 13.3%
Odds 2.20
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 12.4%
Odds 2.13
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
88.1%
1.30 ▥
BTTS BTTS No
13.3%
2.20 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
12.4%
2.13 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.32 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.50 ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
10.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Nantes Win 36.6%
Draw 11.9%
Toulouse Win 51.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nantes1.17
Toulouse1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nantes Nantes
WWDLW
35 GF / 56 GA
Toulouse Toulouse
WLDWL
54 GF / 54 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.42
1.6
Average Goals Conceded
1.42
17
BTTS Yes
20
16
Over 2.5
21
3.46
Shots on Goal
4.42

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nantes Nantes 35 matches
Toulouse Toulouse 38 matches
Nantes Statistic Toulouse
6 Wins 14
9 Draws 10
20 Losses 14
35 Goals For 54
56 Goals Against 54
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.42
1.6 Avg Goals Conceded 1.42
17 BTTS Yes 20
24 Over 1.5 26
16 Over 2.5 21
8 Over 3.5 13
7 Clean Sheets 10
14 Failed To Score 10
3.46 Shots On Goal 4.42
11.31 Total Shots 13.03
3.51 Corners 4.58
42.7% Ball Possession 43%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Toulouse's more proactive style and Nantes's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Toulouse carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 10 with 44 points while Nantes sit 17 on 23, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nantes expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Toulouse in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Toulouse having the stronger overall control. Nantes have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Toulouse.

Nantes Analysis

Nantes approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 23 points from 33 matches. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 8 draws, and 20 defeats, and the 29:52 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Abline (6 goals), Mostafa Mohamed (4 goals), Fabien Centonze (3 goals), with creative support from M. Abline (4 assists), Chidozie Awaziem (2 assists), M. Kaba (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Toulouse Analysis

From their first 33 matches, Toulouse have collected 44 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 12 wins, 8 draws, and 13 losses, while the 47:46 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Y. Gboho (8 goals), Emersonn (6 goals), F. Magri (5 goals), with creative support from S. Hidalgo (6 assists), Aron Dønnum (4 assists), Y. Gboho (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 6 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Nantes won 5 times, Toulouse won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:15 from Nantes's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.14 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.1%)
Predicted formations: Nantes 4-2-3-1 / Toulouse 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Nantes 6, Toulouse 3
H2H summary: Nantes wins 5, draws 5, Toulouse wins 4

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2 34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3 34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4 34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16 34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
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