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FRANCE › LIGUE 2
17.10.2026 12:00
Stade de la Beaujoire
Referee: Benoit Millot

Nantes vs Dunkerque Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.1%
Odds 1.67
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.76
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.1%
1.67 ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.80 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.76 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
75.1%
1.80 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.50 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Nantes Win 65.1%
Draw 7.9%
Dunkerque Win 27%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nantes1.54
Dunkerque1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nantes Nantes
WWDLW
20 GF / 17 GA
Dunkerque Dunkerque
WLDWL
18 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.54
Average Goals Scored
1.2
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
1.53
6
BTTS Yes
7
6
Over 2.5
7
3.5
Shots on Goal
3.25

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nantes Nantes 13 matches
Dunkerque Dunkerque 15 matches
Nantes Statistic Dunkerque
4 Wins 5
3 Draws 3
6 Losses 7
20 Goals For 18
17 Goals Against 23
1.54 Avg Goals Scored 1.2
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 1.53
6 BTTS Yes 7
7 Over 1.5 12
6 Over 2.5 7
4 Over 3.5 4
3 Clean Sheets 2
5 Failed To Score 7
3.5 Shots On Goal 3.25
14.88 Total Shots 11.13
5.38 Corners 4.75
55.4% Ball Possession 49.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Dunkerque. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nantes expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Dunkerque in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Dunkerque having the stronger overall control. Dunkerque arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Nantes Analysis

Nantes approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 7 points from 7 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 4 defeats with a 9:13 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on W. Younoussa (2 goals), Killian Corredor (2 goals), Bahereba Guirassy (1 goals), with creative support from W. Younoussa (1 assists), Bahereba Guirassy (1 assists), L. Perrin (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Dunkerque Analysis

Dunkerque approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 12 with 8 points from 8 matches. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 10:13 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on T. Robinet (2 goals), E. Prutsev (2 goals), S. Keita (2 goals), with creative support from T. Robinet (2 assists), Marco Decherf (2 assists), E. Prutsev (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Nantes won 1 times, Dunkerque won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:1 from Nantes's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.1%)
Predicted formations: Nantes 4-1-4-1 / Dunkerque 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Nantes wins 1, draws 0, Dunkerque wins 0

Standings

Ligue 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 6 1 1 21:8 13 19
W D L W W
2 8 5 2 1 12:9 3 17
W W W W L
3 8 4 3 1 8:5 3 15
W D W L D
4 8 3 5 0 15:9 6 14
D D W D W
5 8 4 1 3 9:7 2 13
W W L L W
6 8 4 1 3 10:9 1 13
W L L W D
7 8 3 3 2 14:12 2 12
W W W D L
8 8 3 2 3 9:8 1 11
W W L D D
9 8 2 5 1 5:6 -1 11
D D W D D
10 8 2 4 2 12:11 1 10
L D L W D
11 8 2 2 4 10:13 -3 8
L L W D D
12 8 2 2 4 10:13 -3 8
L L W D L
13 8 2 2 4 9:13 -4 8
D W L W D
14 8 2 2 4 8:13 -5 8
L D W L W
15 8 2 1 5 14:18 -4 7
L L L L D
16 8 0 6 2 4:6 -2 6
D L D D D
17 8 0 6 2 6:9 -3 6
L D D D D
18 8 1 2 5 10:17 -7 5
L D L L L
Promotion - Ligue 1
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Promotion - Play Offs: Final)
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Promotion - Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Ligue 2 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligue 3