KENYA SUPER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 68.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 59.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
70.3%
-
BTTS BTTS No
68.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
59.7%
-
Probability Distribution
Nairobi City Stars Win 39.7%
Draw 30.6%
Gucha Stars Win 29.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nairobi City Stars0.92
Gucha Stars0.98
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nairobi City Stars Nairobi City Stars
WWDLW
22 GF / 27 GA
Gucha Stars Gucha Stars
WLDWL
25 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
0.81
Average Goals Scored
0.96
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.08
10
BTTS Yes
9
5
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nairobi City Stars Nairobi City Stars 27 matches
Gucha Stars Gucha Stars 26 matches
Nairobi City Stars Statistic Gucha Stars
7 Wins 8
10 Draws 6
10 Losses 12
22 Goals For 25
27 Goals Against 28
0.81 Avg Goals Scored 0.96
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.08
10 BTTS Yes 9
14 Over 1.5 15
5 Over 2.5 7
4 Over 3.5 5
9 Clean Sheets 9
11 Failed To Score 11
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Gucha Stars having the stronger overall control. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Gucha Stars. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Nairobi City Stars Analysis

Nairobi City Stars approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 12 with 34 points from 28 matches. The overall return of 8 wins, 10 draws, and 10 defeats with a 25:27 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Gucha Stars Analysis

Gucha Stars approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 13 with 33 points from 28 matches. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 6 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 27:30 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Nairobi City Stars won 1 times, Gucha Stars won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:2 from Nairobi City Stars's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (70.3%)
H2H summary: Nairobi City Stars wins 1, draws 1, Gucha Stars wins 0
Last matches: Nairobi City Stars
13.06.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Darajani Gogo
0
3
L
07.06.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Talanta
1
5
L
01.06.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Kabati Youth FC
1
2
L
27.05.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
23.05.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
MCF
0
0
D
17.05.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Mombasa Elite
1
2
L
09.05.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Vihiga United FC
0
1
L
03.05.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Equity Bank
0
1
L
26.04.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Soy United
1
2
L
12.04.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Kisumu All Stars
0
1
L
03.04.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
3K
0
3
L
28.03.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
MOFA
1
1
D
22.03.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Luanda Villa
0
1
L
14.03.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Naivas
1
3
L
07.03.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Mwatate United
1
0
W
01.03.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Nzoia Sugar
0
0
D
21.02.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Fortune Sacco
3
2
W
15.02.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Migori Youth
0
1
L
31.01.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Naivas
0
0
D
25.01.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
3K
1
1
D
Last matches: Gucha Stars
13.06.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Talanta
3
2
W
07.06.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Fortune Sacco
0
1
L
01.06.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Darajani Gogo
2
1
W
27.05.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Vihiga United FC
0
1
L
23.05.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Luanda Villa
2
1
W
16.05.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
MOFA
1
2
L
09.05.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Naivas
0
0
D
02.05.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Kibera Black Stars
0
0
D
26.04.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
12.04.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Equity Bank
1
1
D
03.04.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Kabati Youth FC
0
1
L
29.03.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Kisumu All Stars
0
2
L
25.03.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
3K
0
2
L
22.03.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Soy United
1
0
W
14.03.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
MCF
1
1
D
28.02.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Mwatate United
1
3
L
22.02.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Migori Youth
2
0
W
15.02.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Nzoia Sugar
2
0
W
28.01.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Soy United
0
1
L
24.01.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Kabati Youth FC
0
1
L
H2H: Nairobi City Stars vs Gucha Stars
18.04.26
H2H
Nairobi City Stars
Gucha Stars
2
0
W
10.01.26
H2H
Gucha Stars
Nairobi City Stars
2
2
D
Last matches: Nairobi City Stars
13.06.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Darajani Gogo
0
3
L
01.06.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Kabati Youth FC
1
2
L
23.05.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
MCF
0
0
D
09.05.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Vihiga United FC
0
1
L
03.04.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
3K
0
3
L
28.03.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
MOFA
1
1
D
07.03.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Mwatate United
1
0
W
21.02.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Fortune Sacco
3
2
W
31.01.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Naivas
0
0
D
18.01.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Kisumu All Stars
1
1
D
21.12.25
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Soy United
1
1
D
12.12.25
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Equity Bank
2
0
W
02.12.25
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Mombasa Elite
1
0
W
29.11.25
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Nzoia Sugar
1
1
D
15.11.25
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Migori Youth
0
2
L
04.11.25
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Talanta
0
1
L
26.10.25
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Kibera Black Stars
2
3
L
05.10.25
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Luanda Villa
1
0
W
H2H at home: Nairobi City Stars
18.04.26
H2H
Nairobi City Stars
Gucha Stars
2
0
W
Last matches: Gucha Stars
07.06.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Fortune Sacco
0
1
L
27.05.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Vihiga United FC
0
1
L
16.05.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
MOFA
1
2
L
02.05.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Kibera Black Stars
0
0
D
03.04.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Kabati Youth FC
0
1
L
29.03.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Kisumu All Stars
0
2
L
14.03.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
MCF
1
1
D
28.02.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Mwatate United
1
3
L
15.02.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Nzoia Sugar
2
0
W
28.01.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Soy United
0
1
L
17.01.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Equity Bank
2
3
L
07.01.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Darajani Gogo
0
0
D
17.12.25
Sup
Gucha Stars
Naivas
1
0
W
07.12.25
Sup
Gucha Stars
Luanda Villa
0
0
D
23.11.25
Sup
Gucha Stars
3K
0
1
L
09.11.25
Sup
Gucha Stars
Migori Youth
0
1
L
29.10.25
Sup
Gucha Stars
Talanta
0
0
D
H2H away: Gucha Stars
18.04.26
H2H
Nairobi City Stars
Gucha Stars
2
0
L

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 25 6 7 57:29 28 81
D W W W W
2 38 23 8 7 62:26 36 77
D W W D D
3 38 24 4 10 51:32 19 76
D W L D W
4 38 21 11 6 56:28 28 74
W L W W D
5 38 16 16 6 51:30 21 64
D D D D L
6 38 18 9 11 61:41 20 63
W W L L L
7 38 17 10 11 47:30 17 61
D L W W W
8 38 16 9 13 53:41 12 57
L W L W W
9 38 15 8 15 32:33 -1 53
L L D D L
10 38 14 10 14 31:27 4 52
W D L D W
11 38 12 14 12 37:36 1 50
W L W L L
12 38 12 8 18 35:41 -6 44
W L W L W
13 38 12 7 19 30:51 -21 43
L D W L L
14 38 10 9 19 32:52 -20 39
D W W W L
15 38 10 9 19 23:47 -24 39
W L L D W
16 38 9 12 17 32:44 -12 39
L L L D D
17 38 10 8 20 27:48 -21 38
W W L D W
18 38 9 10 19 24:42 -18 34
L W W L D
19 38 9 9 20 29:55 -26 30
L D L W L
20 38 6 7 25 27:64 -37 25
L L L L L
Promotion - Premier League
Relegation