JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Toyota Stadium
Referee: K. Fukushima
Nagoya Grampus
Match Timeline
Kyoto Sanga
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
9'
Y. Yamagishi · Assist: K. Nakayama
Nagoya Grampus
🟨
28'
Henrique Trevisan
Kyoto Sanga
29'
Y. Yamagishi
Nagoya Grampus
🟨
36'
Ryuji Izumi
Nagoya Grampus
🟨
44'
Barreto
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
46'
Gustavo Barreto ↔ Rafael Elias
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
46'
T. Hirato ↔ Joao Pedro
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
46'
T. Matsuda ↔ F. Honda
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
57'
T. Yonemoto ↔ R. Nakano
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
59'
K. Nakayama ↔ Y. Nogami
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
60'
Y. Asano ↔ H. Koda
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
67'
M. Okugawa ↔ T. Hiraoka
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
69'
T. Hara ↔ T. Uchida
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
89'
Y. Kimura ↔ K. Nagai
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
89'
R. Izumi ↔ M. Ono
Nagoya Grampus
90'
Y. Yamagishi · Assist: H. Koda
Nagoya Grampus

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 86.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
86.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nagoya Grampus Win 74.1%
Draw 0%
Kyoto Sanga Win 25.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nagoya Grampus1.53
Kyoto Sanga1.42
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus
WWDLW
25 GF / 18 GA
Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga
WLDWL
25 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.67
Average Goals Scored
1.56
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
1.31
10
BTTS Yes
12
9
Over 2.5
8
4.67
Shots on Goal
4.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 15 matches
Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 16 matches
Nagoya Grampus Statistic Kyoto Sanga
7 Wins 5
5 Draws 5
3 Losses 6
25 Goals For 25
18 Goals Against 21
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.56
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.31
10 BTTS Yes 12
13 Over 1.5 15
9 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 2
4 Clean Sheets 1
2 Failed To Score 3
4.67 Shots On Goal 4.5
13.67 Total Shots 13.71
5.2 Corners 5.43
52.1% Ball Possession 52.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Kyoto Sanga. Nagoya Grampus come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nagoya Grampus expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Kyoto Sanga in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Kyoto Sanga having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Nagoya Grampus Analysis

Nagoya Grampus approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 28 points after 15 outings. The return of 9 wins, 0 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 27:21, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through Y. Kimura (7 goals), Y. Yamagishi (6 goals), Hidemasa Koda (2 goals), with creative support from K. Nakayama (6 assists), Teruki Hara (3 assists), Y. Kimura (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Kyoto Sanga Analysis

Kyoto Sanga sit 7 with 20 points after 14 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 7 wins, 0 draws, and 7 defeats with a 21:20 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Marco Tulio (5 goals), Rafael Elias (5 goals), Henrique Trevisan (2 goals), with creative support from F. Honda (3 assists), Rafael Elias (2 assists), Henrique Trevisan (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Nagoya Grampus won 5 times, Kyoto Sanga won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:17 from Nagoya Grampus's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Nagoya Grampus 3-4-2-1 / Kyoto Sanga 4-3-3
H2H summary: Nagoya Grampus wins 5, draws 6, Kyoto Sanga wins 4
Stats
Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
1
8 Corner Kicks 5
12 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 1
38% Ball Possession 62%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Goal 5
3 Shots off Goal 3
5 Blocked Shots 1
11 Shots insidebox 6
3 Shots outsidebox 3
5 Goalkeeper Saves 3
257 Total passes 441
180 Passes accurate 350
1.45 expected_goals 0.78
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Nagoya Grampus
Formation
Kyoto Sanga
D. Schmidt
D. Schmidt
T. Hara
T. Hara
H. Fujii
H. Fujii
S. Tokumoto
S. Tokumoto
Y. Asano
Y. Asano
S. Inagaki
S. Inagaki
T. Takamine
T. Takamine
K. Nakayama
🎯
K. Nakayama
R. Izumi
R. Izumi
Y. Kimura
Y. Kimura
Y. Yamagishi
⚽ 3
Y. Yamagishi
G. Ota
G. Ota
H. Sugai
H. Sugai
Y. Suzuki
Y. Suzuki
Henrique Trevisan
Henrique Trevisan
K. Sato
K. Sato
T. Yonemoto
T. Yonemoto
S. Yoon
S. Yoon
T. Hirato
T. Hirato
M. Okugawa
M. Okugawa
Gustavo Barreto
Gustavo Barreto
T. Matsuda
T. Matsuda
Nagoya Grampus 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
D. Schmidt
G
70
T. Hara
↓ 69'
D
13
H. Fujii
D
55
S. Tokumoto
D
9
Y. Asano
↓ 60'
M
15
S. Inagaki
M
31
T. Takamine
M
27
K. Nakayama
🎯 9' ↓ 59'
M
7
R. Izumi
↓ 89' 🟨 36'
F
22
Y. Kimura
↓ 89'
F
11
Y. Yamagishi
⚽ 9' ⚽ 29' ⚽ 90'
F
Substitutes
35
A. Pisano
G
18
K. Nagai
↑ 89'
F
17
T. Uchida
↑ 69'
M
41
M. Ono
↑ 89'
M
2
Y. Nogami
↑ 59'
D
20
K. Mikuni
D
33
T. Kikuchi
M
19
H. Koda
🎯 90' ↑ 60'
M
30
S. Sugiura
F
Kyoto Sanga 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
G. Ota
G
22
H. Sugai
D
50
Y. Suzuki
D
34
Henrique Trevisan
🟨 28'
D
44
K. Sato
D
8
T. Yonemoto
↓ 57'
M
25
S. Yoon
M
39
T. Hirato
↓ 46'
M
7
M. Okugawa
↓ 67'
F
88
Gustavo Barreto
↓ 46' 🟨 44'
F
18
T. Matsuda
↓ 46'
F
Substitutes
94
M. Murakami
G
9
Rafael Elias
↑ 46'
F
6
Joao Pedro
↑ 46'
M
16
T. Hiraoka
↑ 67'
M
77
H. Arai
M
48
R. Nakano
↑ 57'
M
3
S. Asada
D
99
F. Honda
↑ 46'
M
40
Y. Ishida
D
Last matches: Nagoya Grampus
21.07.26
Fri
Nagoya Grampus
FC Tokyo
1
2
L
06.06.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
1
2
L
30.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
2
2
D
23.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2
4
L
17.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
1
6
L
06.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Gamba Osaka
2
1
W
03.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
V-varen Nagasaki
2
1
W
29.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Fagiano Okayama
1
1
D
25.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Shimizu S-pulse
2
0
W
19.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
2
2
D
11.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Vissel Kobe
2
3
L
04.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
3
0
W
22.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
1
1
D
18.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2
1
W
14.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Vissel Kobe
0
3
L
07.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
5
1
W
01.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Fagiano Okayama
1
1
D
21.02.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
V-varen Nagasaki
1
3
L
15.02.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Gamba Osaka
0
0
D
08.02.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Shimizu S-pulse
1
0
W
Last matches: Kyoto Sanga
17.07.26
Fri
Kyoto Sanga
Shonan Bellmare
1
4
L
06.06.26
J1
Kyoto Sanga
Kashiwa Reysol
1
0
W
30.05.26
J1
Kyoto Sanga
Kashiwa Reysol
2
6
L
23.05.26
J1
Kyoto Sanga
V-varen Nagasaki
1
0
W
17.05.26
J1
Kyoto Sanga
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0
4
L
13.05.26
J1
Kyoto Sanga
Vissel Kobe
0
1
L
06.05.26
J1
Kyoto Sanga
Avispa Fukuoka
1
1
D
02.05.26
J1
Kyoto Sanga
Shimizu S-pulse
1
2
L
29.04.26
J1
Kyoto Sanga
Gamba Osaka
1
1
D
18.04.26
J1
Kyoto Sanga
Cerezo Osaka
0
3
L
11.04.26
J1
Kyoto Sanga
Fagiano Okayama
5
1
W
04.04.26
J1
Kyoto Sanga
Gamba Osaka
0
2
L
22.03.26
J1
Kyoto Sanga
Nagoya Grampus
1
1
D
18.03.26
J1
Kyoto Sanga
V-varen Nagasaki
2
1
W
14.03.26
J1
Kyoto Sanga
Cerezo Osaka
1
2
L
08.03.26
J1
Kyoto Sanga
Fagiano Okayama
0
1
L
27.02.26
J1
Kyoto Sanga
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2
1
W
22.02.26
J1
Kyoto Sanga
Avispa Fukuoka
2
0
W
14.02.26
J1
Kyoto Sanga
Shimizu S-pulse
1
1
D
06.02.26
J1
Kyoto Sanga
Vissel Kobe
1
1
D
H2H: Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga
10.05.26
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
3
0
W
22.03.26
H2H
Kyoto Sanga
Nagoya Grampus
1
1
D
10.08.25
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
1
2
L
11.05.25
H2H
Kyoto Sanga
Nagoya Grampus
1
1
D
07.08.24
H2H
Kyoto Sanga
Nagoya Grampus
3
2
L
26.05.24
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
1
1
D
16.07.23
H2H
Kyoto Sanga
Nagoya Grampus
2
1
L
25.02.23
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
1
0
W
08.10.22
H2H
Kyoto Sanga
Nagoya Grampus
1
1
D
11.06.22
H2H
Kyoto Sanga
Nagoya Grampus
0
1
W
04.06.22
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
6
1
W
03.05.22
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
1
1
D
22.07.17
H2H
Kyoto Sanga
Nagoya Grampus
3
1
L
03.05.17
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
1
1
D
20.08.14
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
4
0
W
Last matches: Nagoya Grampus
30.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
2
2
D
06.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Gamba Osaka
2
1
W
29.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Fagiano Okayama
1
1
D
19.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
2
2
D
04.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
3
0
W
18.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2
1
W
14.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Vissel Kobe
0
3
L
21.02.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
V-varen Nagasaki
1
3
L
08.02.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Shimizu S-pulse
1
0
W
H2H at home: Nagoya Grampus
10.05.26
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
3
0
W
10.08.25
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
1
2
L
26.05.24
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
1
1
D
25.02.23
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
1
0
W
04.06.22
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
6
1
W
03.05.22
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
1
1
D
03.05.17
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
1
1
D
20.08.14
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
4
0
W
Last matches: Kyoto Sanga
06.06.26
J1
Kyoto Sanga
Kashiwa Reysol
1
0
W
13.05.26
J1
Kyoto Sanga
Vissel Kobe
0
1
L
06.05.26
J1
Kyoto Sanga
Avispa Fukuoka
1
1
D
18.04.26
J1
Kyoto Sanga
Cerezo Osaka
0
3
L
04.04.26
J1
Kyoto Sanga
Gamba Osaka
0
2
L
18.03.26
J1
Kyoto Sanga
V-varen Nagasaki
2
1
W
08.03.26
J1
Kyoto Sanga
Fagiano Okayama
0
1
L
27.02.26
J1
Kyoto Sanga
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2
1
W
14.02.26
J1
Kyoto Sanga
Shimizu S-pulse
1
1
D
20.01.26
Fri
Kyoto Sanga
Urawa
1
2
L
16.01.26
Fri
Kyoto Sanga
Okinawa SV
6
1
W
H2H away: Kyoto Sanga
10.05.26
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
3
0
L
10.08.25
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
1
2
W
26.05.24
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
1
1
D
25.02.23
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
1
0
L
04.06.22
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
6
1
L
03.05.22
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
1
1
D
03.05.17
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
1
1
D
20.08.14
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
4
0
L

Standings

West
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 11 0 7 29:25 4 35
?
2 18 11 0 7 30:21 9 31
?
3 18 10 0 8 33:31 2 31
?
4 18 10 0 8 31:23 8 30
?
5 18 10 0 8 31:25 6 28
?
6 18 8 0 10 26:29 -3 26
?
7 18 8 0 10 23:25 -2 24
?
8 18 8 0 10 22:28 -6 23
?
9 18 7 0 11 21:29 -8 21
?
10 18 7 0 11 21:31 -10 21
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)