JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Toyota Stadium
Referee: F. Nakamura
Nagoya Grampus
Match Timeline
Avispa Fukuoka
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
24'
S. Usui · Assist: Y. Kitajima
Avispa Fukuoka
🟨
33'
Teppei Oka
Avispa Fukuoka
35'
M. Shigemi · Assist: T. Miki
Avispa Fukuoka
🟨
41'
Masato Shigemi
Avispa Fukuoka
🔄
46'
Y. Yamagishi ↔ Y. Asano
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
46'
T. Hara ↔ T. Kikuchi
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
63'
M. Shigemi ↔ Y. Michiwaki
Avispa Fukuoka
🔄
64'
Y. Maejima ↔ K. Yamawaki
Avispa Fukuoka
🔄
64'
T. Oka ↔ T. Nara
Avispa Fukuoka
🟨
67'
Nara Tatsuki
Avispa Fukuoka
🔄
69'
Y. Kitajima ↔ R. Tsuruno
Avispa Fukuoka
🟨
71'
Yutaka Michiwaki
Avispa Fukuoka
🔄
71'
H. Koda ↔ S. Sugiura
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
79'
T. Morishima ↔ M. Ono
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
79'
R. Izumi ↔ S. Mori
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
82'
S. Usui ↔ K. Fujimoto
Avispa Fukuoka
83'
Y. Asano · Assist: Y. Kimura
Nagoya Grampus
🟨
90+10'
Tomoki Takamine
Nagoya Grampus
90'
Y. Kimura · Assist: M. Ono
Nagoya Grampus

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 70.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64.3%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
70.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.3%
-
Probability Distribution
Nagoya Grampus Win 64.3%
Draw 9.6%
Avispa Fukuoka Win 26.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nagoya Grampus1.7
Avispa Fukuoka1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus
WWDLW
16 GF / 13 GA
Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka
WLDWL
22 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.6
Average Goals Scored
1.57
1.3
Average Goals Conceded
1.86
6
BTTS Yes
9
6
Over 2.5
6
4.6
Shots on Goal
3.4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 10 matches
Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 14 matches
Nagoya Grampus Statistic Avispa Fukuoka
4 Wins 4
3 Draws 5
3 Losses 5
16 Goals For 22
13 Goals Against 26
1.6 Avg Goals Scored 1.57
1.3 Avg Goals Conceded 1.86
6 BTTS Yes 9
8 Over 1.5 11
6 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 5
3 Clean Sheets 2
2 Failed To Score 3
4.6 Shots On Goal 3.4
14.5 Total Shots 12.3
5.1 Corners 4.3
51.3% Ball Possession 42.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Nagoya Grampus's more proactive style and Avispa Fukuoka's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Avispa Fukuoka. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Nagoya Grampus have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Nagoya Grampus Analysis

With 16 points from 10 games and a place of 5, Nagoya Grampus still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 0 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 17:15 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Y. Yamagishi (6 goals), Y. Kimura (4 goals), Hidemasa Koda (1 goals), with creative support from K. Nakayama (5 assists), Marcus Vinicius (2 assists), Y. Kimura (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

Avispa Fukuoka Analysis

Avispa Fukuoka are currently 9 in the standings with 11 points from 10 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, while the 10:17 goal ratio supports the view of good form and are on a winning streak. Going forward they rely heavily on Y. Hashimoto (2 goals), G. Miura (1 goals), K. Maeda (1 goals), with creative support from Y. Hashimoto (1 assists), Yuma Tsujioka (1 assists), N. Ben Khalifa (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Nagoya Grampus won 7 times, Avispa Fukuoka won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:12 from Nagoya Grampus's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.4%)
Predicted formations: Nagoya Grampus 3-4-2-1 / Avispa Fukuoka 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Nagoya Grampus wins 7, draws 4, Avispa Fukuoka wins 4
Stats
Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
1
5 Corner Kicks 5
7 Fouls 15
2 Offsides 3
64% Ball Possession 36%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Goal 6
5 Shots off Goal 2
5 Blocked Shots 1
11 Shots insidebox 5
3 Shots outsidebox 4
4 Goalkeeper Saves 2
467 Total passes 270
374 Passes accurate 184
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Nagoya Grampus
Formation
Avispa Fukuoka
D. Schmidt
D. Schmidt
T. Hara
T. Hara
H. Fujii
H. Fujii
T. Takamine
T. Takamine
H. Koda
H. Koda
T. Morishima
T. Morishima
S. Inagaki
S. Inagaki
K. Nakayama
K. Nakayama
R. Izumi
R. Izumi
Y. Kimura
🎯
Y. Kimura
Y. Yamagishi
Y. Yamagishi
K. Fujita
K. Fujita
T. Oka
T. Oka
M. Tashiro
M. Tashiro
Y. Tsujioka
Y. Tsujioka
Y. Hashimoto
Y. Hashimoto
K. Okuno
K. Okuno
T. Miki
🎯
T. Miki
Y. Maejima
Y. Maejima
M. Shigemi
M. Shigemi
Y. Kitajima
🎯
Y. Kitajima
S. Usui
S. Usui
Nagoya Grampus 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
D. Schmidt
G
70
T. Hara
↓ 46'
D
13
H. Fujii
D
31
T. Takamine
🟨 90+10'
D
19
H. Koda
↓ 71'
M
14
T. Morishima
↓ 79'
M
15
S. Inagaki
M
27
K. Nakayama
M
7
R. Izumi
↓ 79'
F
22
Y. Kimura
⚽ 90' 🎯 83'
F
11
Y. Yamagishi
↓ 46'
F
Substitutes
35
A. Pisano
G
17
T. Uchida
M
41
M. Ono
🎯 90' ↑ 79'
M
9
Y. Asano
⚽ 83' ↑ 46'
M
44
S. Mori
↑ 79'
D
2
Y. Nogami
D
20
K. Mikuni
D
33
T. Kikuchi
↑ 46'
M
30
S. Sugiura
↑ 71'
F
Avispa Fukuoka 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
41
K. Fujita
G
16
T. Oka
↓ 64' 🟨 33'
D
37
M. Tashiro
D
15
Y. Tsujioka
D
47
Y. Hashimoto
M
8
K. Okuno
M
11
T. Miki
🎯 35'
M
29
Y. Maejima
↓ 64'
M
6
M. Shigemi
⚽ 35' ↓ 63' 🟨 41'
F
25
Y. Kitajima
🎯 24' ↓ 69'
F
7
S. Usui
⚽ 24' ↓ 82'
F
Substitutes
99
P. O. Obi
G
45
D. Miya
D
33
K. Yamawaki
↑ 64'
D
32
A. Sani Brown
F
3
T. Nara
↑ 64' 🟨 67'
D
22
K. Fujimoto
↑ 82'
F
27
Y. Michiwaki
↑ 63' 🟨 71'
F
28
R. Tsuruno
↑ 69'
F
46
K. Fukushima
M
Last matches: Nagoya Grampus
06.06.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
1
2
L
30.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
2
2
D
23.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2
4
L
17.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
1
6
L
10.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
3
0
W
06.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Gamba Osaka
2
1
W
03.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
V-varen Nagasaki
2
1
W
29.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Fagiano Okayama
1
1
D
25.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Shimizu S-pulse
2
0
W
11.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Vissel Kobe
2
3
L
04.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
3
0
W
22.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
1
1
D
18.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2
1
W
14.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Vissel Kobe
0
3
L
07.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
5
1
W
01.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Fagiano Okayama
1
1
D
21.02.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
V-varen Nagasaki
1
3
L
15.02.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Gamba Osaka
0
0
D
08.02.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Shimizu S-pulse
1
0
W
Last matches: Avispa Fukuoka
06.06.26
J1
Avispa Fukuoka
JEF United Chiba
2
1
W
30.05.26
J1
Avispa Fukuoka
JEF United Chiba
2
2
D
23.05.26
J1
Avispa Fukuoka
Vissel Kobe
0
1
L
10.05.26
J1
Avispa Fukuoka
Shimizu S-pulse
1
1
D
06.05.26
J1
Avispa Fukuoka
Kyoto Sanga
1
1
D
03.05.26
J1
Avispa Fukuoka
Cerezo Osaka
1
1
D
29.04.26
J1
Avispa Fukuoka
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2
2
D
25.04.26
J1
Avispa Fukuoka
Fagiano Okayama
0
2
L
22.04.26
J1
Avispa Fukuoka
Gamba Osaka
2
1
W
11.04.26
J1
Avispa Fukuoka
V-varen Nagasaki
1
0
W
05.04.26
J1
Avispa Fukuoka
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
0
W
21.03.26
J1
Avispa Fukuoka
Gamba Osaka
2
2
D
18.03.26
J1
Avispa Fukuoka
Shimizu S-pulse
1
1
D
15.03.26
J1
Avispa Fukuoka
V-varen Nagasaki
0
1
L
07.03.26
J1
Avispa Fukuoka
Nagoya Grampus
1
5
L
27.02.26
J1
Avispa Fukuoka
Vissel Kobe
1
2
L
22.02.26
J1
Avispa Fukuoka
Kyoto Sanga
0
2
L
15.02.26
J1
Avispa Fukuoka
Cerezo Osaka
0
2
L
09.02.26
Fri
Avispa Fukuoka
Roasso Kumamoto
1
1
D
08.02.26
J1
Avispa Fukuoka
Fagiano Okayama
1
1
D
H2H: Nagoya Grampus vs Avispa Fukuoka
19.04.26
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
2
2
D
07.03.26
H2H
Avispa Fukuoka
Nagoya Grampus
1
5
W
06.12.25
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
1
0
W
17.05.25
H2H
Avispa Fukuoka
Nagoya Grampus
1
1
D
04.10.24
H2H
Avispa Fukuoka
Nagoya Grampus
1
0
L
07.04.24
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
0
0
D
15.10.23
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
0
1
L
11.10.23
H2H
Avispa Fukuoka
Nagoya Grampus
1
0
L
16.09.23
H2H
Avispa Fukuoka
Nagoya Grampus
1
0
L
11.06.23
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
2
1
W
03.09.22
H2H
Avispa Fukuoka
Nagoya Grampus
2
3
W
25.05.22
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
1
0
W
22.08.21
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
1
0
W
28.02.21
H2H
Avispa Fukuoka
Nagoya Grampus
1
2
W
03.12.17
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
0
0
D
Last matches: Nagoya Grampus
30.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
2
2
D
10.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
3
0
W
06.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Gamba Osaka
2
1
W
29.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Fagiano Okayama
1
1
D
04.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
3
0
W
18.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2
1
W
14.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Vissel Kobe
0
3
L
21.02.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
V-varen Nagasaki
1
3
L
08.02.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Shimizu S-pulse
1
0
W
H2H at home: Nagoya Grampus
19.04.26
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
2
2
D
06.12.25
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
1
0
W
07.04.24
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
0
0
D
15.10.23
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
0
1
L
11.06.23
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
2
1
W
25.05.22
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
1
0
W
22.08.21
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
1
0
W
03.12.17
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
0
0
D
Last matches: Avispa Fukuoka
06.06.26
J1
Avispa Fukuoka
JEF United Chiba
2
1
W
10.05.26
J1
Avispa Fukuoka
Shimizu S-pulse
1
1
D
03.05.26
J1
Avispa Fukuoka
Cerezo Osaka
1
1
D
25.04.26
J1
Avispa Fukuoka
Fagiano Okayama
0
2
L
22.04.26
J1
Avispa Fukuoka
Gamba Osaka
2
1
W
05.04.26
J1
Avispa Fukuoka
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
0
W
15.03.26
J1
Avispa Fukuoka
V-varen Nagasaki
0
1
L
27.02.26
J1
Avispa Fukuoka
Vissel Kobe
1
2
L
22.02.26
J1
Avispa Fukuoka
Kyoto Sanga
0
2
L
20.01.26
Fri
Avispa Fukuoka
Tokyo Verdy
4
3
W
H2H away: Avispa Fukuoka
19.04.26
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
2
2
D
06.12.25
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
1
0
L
07.04.24
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
0
0
D
15.10.23
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
0
1
W
11.06.23
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
2
1
L
25.05.22
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
1
0
L
22.08.21
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
1
0
L
03.12.17
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
0
0
D

Standings

West
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 11 0 7 29:25 4 35
?
2 18 11 0 7 30:21 9 31
?
3 18 10 0 8 33:31 2 31
?
4 18 10 0 8 31:23 8 30
?
5 18 10 0 8 31:25 6 28
?
6 18 8 0 10 26:29 -3 26
?
7 18 8 0 10 23:25 -2 24
?
8 18 8 0 10 22:28 -6 23
?
9 18 7 0 11 21:29 -8 21
?
10 18 7 0 11 21:31 -10 21
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)