PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio da Madeira
Referee: R. Baixinho
Nacional
Match Timeline
Vitória SC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
14'
Rica Rocha
Guimaraes
🟨
25'
José Gomes
Nacional
🟨
32'
Filipe Soares
Nacional
🟨
32'
Witiness Quembo
Nacional
🟨
32'
Francisco Dias
Guimaraes
🟨
54'
Matheus Dias
Nacional
🔄
62'
O. Camara ↔ N. Saviolo
Guimaraes
69'
J. Ramirez · Assist: Witi
Nacional
🔄
70'
Witi ↔ Pablo Ruan
Nacional
🔄
80'
R. Rocha ↔ H. Nunes
Guimaraes
🔄
80'
T. Arcanjo ↔ M. Nogueira
Guimaraes
🔄
80'
Samu ↔ Zeega
Guimaraes
🟨
84'
Martim Guedes
Guimaraes
86'
J. Ramirez
Nacional
🔄
90+3'
Paulinho Boia ↔ J. Aurelio
Nacional
🔄
90+1'
C. Labidi ↔ A. Sousa
Nacional
🔄
90+1'
F. Soares ↔ C. Goncalves
Nacional

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 81.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 40.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 59.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
81.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
40.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
59.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nacional Win 43.2%
Draw 18.5%
Vitória SC Win 38.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nacional1.23
Vitória SC1.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nacional Nacional
WWDLW
35 GF / 45 GA
Vitória SC Vitória SC
WLDWL
39 GF / 49 GA
Key Stats
1.06
Average Goals Scored
1.18
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.48
16
BTTS Yes
14
14
Over 2.5
15
4.21
Shots on Goal
3.94

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nacional Nacional 33 matches
Vitória SC Vitória SC 33 matches
Nacional Statistic Vitória SC
8 Wins 12
7 Draws 6
18 Losses 15
35 Goals For 39
45 Goals Against 49
1.06 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.48
16 BTTS Yes 14
24 Over 1.5 25
14 Over 2.5 15
6 Over 3.5 8
7 Clean Sheets 10
11 Failed To Score 11
4.21 Shots On Goal 3.94
12.79 Total Shots 13.33
4.45 Corners 4.39
46.5% Ball Possession 51%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Guimaraes. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Nacional have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Nacional Analysis

With 31 points from 33 games and a place of 14, Nacional still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 18 defeats with a 35:45 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Jesús Ramírez (16 goals), Paulinho Bóia (4 goals), Ze Vitor (4 goals), with creative support from Jose Gomes (5 assists), Liziero (4 assists), Paulinho Bóia (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Vitória SC Analysis

Guimaraes sit 8 with 42 points after 33 league matches. Their overall return of 12 wins, 6 draws, and 15 losses with goals at 39:49 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Samu (7 goals), Gustavo (5 goals), Oumar Camara (5 goals), with creative support from N. Saviolo (4 assists), Gonçalo Nogueira (4 assists), Samu (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 10 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Nacional won 5 times, Vitória SC won 7 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:24 from Nacional's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.5%)
Predicted formations: Nacional 4-2-3-1 / Vitória SC 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Nacional wins 5, draws 3, Vitória SC wins 7

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 4 2 66:18 48 88
W L W W W
2 34 25 7 2 89:24 65 82
W W W D D
3 34 23 11 0 74:25 49 80
W D D W W
4 34 16 11 7 64:36 28 59
D D D L W
5 34 15 11 8 42:29 13 56
W D D W D
6 34 13 11 10 47:38 9 50
L L D W L
7 34 12 7 15 37:49 -12 43
D L W L W
8 34 12 6 16 47:64 -17 42
W W D L W
9 34 12 6 16 39:51 -12 42
L L L W W
10 34 10 9 15 54:57 -3 39
L D D L L
11 34 10 9 15 35:52 -17 39
L D L W L
12 34 8 12 14 35:57 -22 36
D L D L D
13 34 9 9 16 32:41 -9 36
L W D W D
14 34 9 7 18 37:45 -8 34
W L L W W
15 34 6 12 16 38:56 -18 30
D D L L L
16 34 6 12 16 31:57 -26 30
D W L L L
17 34 6 10 18 27:55 -28 28
L W W D L
18 34 3 12 19 27:67 -40 21
D W W D D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2