Login Register
25.10.2026 18:00
Estádio da Madeira
Referee: J. Bessa
Nacional
Match Timeline
SC Braga
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
19'
Miguel Baeza
Nacional
⚽
19'
M. Baeza · Assist: Song Min-Kyu
Nacional
🟨
33'
Francisco Gonçalves
Nacional
🔄
46'
T. Marques ↔ J. Moutinho
SC Braga
🔄
46'
Gorby ↔ M. Dorgeles
SC Braga
🔄
46'
Gabriel Silva ↔ G. Martinez
SC Braga
🔄
62'
J. Milosevic ↔ F. Navarro
SC Braga
🔄
68'
M. Jensen ↔ Deivison
Nacional
🔄
68'
Song Min-Kyu ↔ M. Djalo
Nacional
🔄
76'
B. Arrey-Mbi ↔ D. Huseinbasic
SC Braga
🔄
78'
C. Labidi ↔ D. Dongmo
Nacional
🔄
78'
A. Njoya ↔ Pablo Ruan
Nacional
🟨
79'
Sergio Barcia
SC Braga
🟨
86'
Stavros Gavriel
Nacional
🔄
86'
M. Baeza ↔ Daniel Junior
Nacional
🟨
90+4'
Gustaf Lagerbielke
SC Braga

Nacional vs SC Braga Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 72.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
72.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
89.8%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Nacional Win 27.1%
Draw 22%
SC Braga Win 50.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nacional0.95
SC Braga1.69
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nacional Nacional
L L L L L
5 GF / 15 GA
SC Braga SC Braga
W L L L D
4 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
1.48
2
Average Goals Conceded
0.76
7
BTTS Yes
7
7
Over 2.5
10
3.13
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nacional Nacional 13 matches
SC Braga SC Braga 21 matches
Nacional Statistic SC Braga
1 Wins 12
4 Draws 5
8 Losses 4
14 Goals For 31
26 Goals Against 16
1.08 Avg Goals Scored 1.48
2 Avg Goals Conceded 0.76
7 BTTS Yes 7
11 Over 1.5 12
7 Over 2.5 10
6 Over 3.5 6
2 Clean Sheets 13
5 Failed To Score 4
3.13 Shots On Goal 4
10.88 Total Shots 10
4.38 Corners 4.06
49.8% Ball Possession 49.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors SC Braga. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. SC Braga carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 9 with 11 points while Nacional sit 16 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nacional expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and SC Braga in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward SC Braga having the stronger overall control. Nacional have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Nacional Analysis

Nacional approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 4 points from 8 matches. The overall return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 6 defeats with a 9:18 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on N. Kader (2 goals), Léo Santos (1 goals), Liziero (1 goals), with creative support from Léo Santos (1 assists), Liziero (1 assists), Daniel Júnior (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

SC Braga Analysis

So far, SC Braga have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 11 points from 7 matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 8:8 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Pau Victor (3 goals), Gabri Martínez (1 goals), Fran Navarro (1 goals), with creative support from E. Tıknaz (2 assists), Pau Victor (1 assists), Vitor Carvalho (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Nacional won 1 times, SC Braga won 12 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:38 from Nacional's perspective. 12 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.4 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78%)
Predicted formations: Nacional 4-2-3-1 / SC Braga 3-4-3
H2H summary: Nacional wins 1, draws 2, SC Braga wins 12

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 11 0 0 27:5 22 33
W W W W W
2 11 9 1 1 30:10 20 28
W W W W L
3 11 7 3 1 24:11 13 24
W W L W D
4 11 6 3 2 16:8 8 21
L W L W D
5 11 6 2 3 13:8 5 20
L W W W D
6 11 6 2 3 15:13 2 20
L W W W W
7 11 5 3 3 10:8 2 18
W D L W W
8 11 5 2 4 13:11 2 17
W W L L L
9 11 4 2 5 13:18 -5 14
L W W L D
10 11 3 4 4 15:14 1 13
W L W L W
11 11 3 3 5 14:15 -1 12
D L L W W
12 11 2 4 5 17:22 -5 10
L L L L L
13 11 3 1 7 11:19 -8 10
W L W L L
14 11 2 3 6 11:12 -1 9
L D W L D
15 10 2 2 6 9:21 -12 8
L L L D L
16 11 2 2 7 6:20 -14 8
D L W L W
17 11 2 1 8 9:24 -15 7
L L L W L
18 10 0 2 8 5:19 -14 2
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2