30.08.2026 14:30

Nacional

2 - 3

Estrela

Estádio da Madeira

Referee: C. Macedo

Nacional vs Estrela H2H Stats

Compare football head-to-head records, previous meetings, wins, draws, BTTS and Over 2.5 trends before reading the match prediction.

View today's football H2H stats

Nacional

Match Timeline

Estrela

0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'

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Nacional vs Estrela Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2

Home Win

Probability 70%

Odds -

BTTS

Yes

Probability 78.8%

Odds -

Over / Under 2.5

Over 2.5

Probability 61.1%

Odds -

All Markets

Market	Option	Probability	Odds	Stats & Analysis
1X2	Home Win	70%	-	▥
BTTS	Yes	78.8%	-	▥
Over / Under 2.5	Over 2.5	61.1%	-	▥
Corners O/U	Over 7.5 Corners	80.8%	-	▥
HT / FT	Home / Home	-	-	▥
Correct Score	2-1	-	-	▥

Probability Distribution

Nacional Win 70%

Draw 7.7%

Estrela Win 22.3%

Expected Goals (xG)

Nacional1.12

Estrela1.62

Recent Form (Last 5)

Nacional

L W D L D

4 GF / 5 GA

Estrela

D D W W D

10 GF / 7 GA

Key Stats

1.13

Average Goals Scored

1.78

1.38

Average Goals Conceded

1.11

BTTS Yes

Over 2.5

2.33

Shots on Goal

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nacional 8 matches

Estrela 9 matches

Nacional	Statistic	Estrela
1	Wins	4
4	Draws	4
3	Losses	1
9	Goals For	16
11	Goals Against	10
1.13	Avg Goals Scored	1.78
1.38	Avg Goals Conceded	1.11
4	BTTS Yes	6
6	Over 1.5	8
3	Over 2.5	4
2	Over 3.5	3
2	Clean Sheets	3
3	Failed To Score	0
2.33	Shots On Goal	5
12.33	Total Shots	9
4.67	Corners	2.5
53%	Ball Possession	49%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Nacional won 3 times, Estrela won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:8 from Nacional's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.78 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win

BTTS: Yes

Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5

Highest model probability: 12 (92.4%)

Predicted formations: Nacional 3-4-2-1 / Estrela 4-3-3

H2H summary: Nacional wins 3, draws 2, Estrela wins 4

Standings

Primeira Liga

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	PTS	Form
1	FC Porto	11	11	0	0	27:5	22	33	W W W W W
2	Benfica	11	9	1	1	30:10	20	28	W W W W L
3	Sporting CP	11	7	3	1	24:11	13	24	W W L W D
4	Santa Clara	11	6	3	2	16:8	8	21	L W L W D
5	Arouca	11	6	2	3	13:8	5	20	L W W W D
6	Academico Viseu	11	6	2	3	15:13	2	20	L W W W W
7	GIL Vicente	11	5	3	3	10:8	2	18	W D L W W
8	SC Braga	11	5	2	4	13:11	2	17	W W L L L
9	Moreirense	11	4	2	5	13:18	-5	14	L W W L D
10	Famalicao	11	3	4	4	15:14	1	13	W L W L W
11	Alverca	11	3	3	5	14:15	-1	12	D L L W W
12	Estrela Away	11	2	4	5	17:22	-5	10	L L L L L
13	Nacional Home	11	3	1	7	11:19	-8	10	W L W L L
14	Vitória SC	11	2	3	6	11:12	-1	9	L D W L D
15	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	9:21	-12	8	L L L D L
16	Casa Pia	11	2	2	7	6:20	-14	8	D L W L W
17	Rio Ave	11	2	1	8	9:24	-15	7	L L L W L
18	Estoril	10	0	2	8	5:19	-14	2	L L L L L