Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
All Markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|
Probability Distribution
Nacional Win 0%
Draw 0%
Estrela Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nacional1.22
Estrela1.64
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nacional
WWDLW
9 GF / 10 GA
Estrela
WLDWL
16 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
1.78
1.43
Average Goals Conceded
1.11
4
BTTS Yes
6
3
Over 2.5
4
3.5
Shots on Goal
5.5
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Nacional
7 matches
Estrela
9 matches
| Nacional | Statistic | Estrela |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wins | 4 |
| 4 | Draws | 4 |
| 2 | Losses | 1 |
| 9 | Goals For | 16 |
| 10 | Goals Against | 10 |
| 1.29 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.78 |
| 1.43 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.11 |
| 4 | BTTS Yes | 6 |
| 6 | Over 1.5 | 8 |
| 3 | Over 2.5 | 4 |
| 2 | Over 3.5 | 3 |
| 2 | Clean Sheets | 3 |
| 2 | Failed To Score | 0 |
| 3.5 | Shots On Goal | 5.5 |
| 15 | Total Shots | 9.5 |
| 5.5 | Corners | 2.5 |
| 54% | Ball Possession | 49% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
H2H Analysis
Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Nacional won 3 times, Estrela won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:8 from Nacional's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.78 goals per game.
Predicted formations: Nacional 3-4-2-1 / Estrela 4-3-3
H2H summary: Nacional wins 3, draws 2, Estrela wins 4
Last matches: Nacional
16.08.26
Pri
Nacional
Estoril
2
0
W
10.08.26
Pri
Nacional
Santa Clara
2
2
D
23.07.26
Fri
Nacional
Estrela
0
2
L
22.07.26
Fri
Nacional
Leganes
0
0
D
19.07.26
Fri
Nacional
Tondela
1
1
D
18.07.26
Fri
Nacional
Leixoes
3
3
D
11.07.26
Fri
Nacional
Machico
1
2
L
16.05.26
Pri
Nacional
Vitória SC
2
0
W
11.05.26
Pri
Nacional
Santa Clara
0
2
L
02.05.26
Pri
Nacional
AVS
1
2
L
25.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Tondela
2
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Alverca
1
0
W
12.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Benfica
0
2
L
04.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Estrela
2
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Nacional
Famalicao
0
1
L
15.03.26
Pri
Nacional
Estoril
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pri
Nacional
Moreirense
1
1
D
28.02.26
Pri
Nacional
SC Braga
1
2
L
21.02.26
Pri
Nacional
Arouca
0
3
L
15.02.26
Pri
Nacional
FC Porto
0
1
L
Last matches: Estrela
15.08.26
Pri
Estrela
Alverca
2
2
D
08.08.26
Pri
Estrela
Sporting CP
2
2
D
01.08.26
Fri
Estrela
Al-Nassr
4
2
W
29.07.26
Fri
Estrela
Lusitano Évora 1911
1
0
W
29.07.26
Fri
Estrela
Portimonense
1
1
D
23.07.26
Fri
Estrela
Nacional
2
0
W
18.07.26
Fri
Estrela
Casa Pia
1
2
L
15.07.26
Fri
Estrela
Naval 1893
2
0
W
16.05.26
Pri
Estrela
SC Braga
2
2
D
11.05.26
Pri
Estrela
Famalicao
0
0
D
02.05.26
Pri
Estrela
Moreirense
2
3
L
26.04.26
Pri
Estrela
FC Porto
1
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
Estrela
Arouca
0
1
L
11.04.26
Pri
Estrela
Sporting CP
0
1
L
04.04.26
Pri
Estrela
Nacional
0
2
L
20.03.26
Pri
Estrela
Casa Pia
4
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Estrela
Rio Ave
1
2
L
08.03.26
Pri
Estrela
GIL Vicente
2
2
D
28.02.26
Pri
Estrela
AVS
0
0
D
20.02.26
Pri
Estrela
Tondela
0
2
L
H2H: Nacional vs Estrela
23.07.26
H2H
Estrela
Nacional
2
0
L
04.04.26
H2H
Nacional
Estrela
2
0
W
09.11.25
H2H
Estrela
Nacional
1
1
D
06.04.25
H2H
Nacional
Estrela
0
1
L
10.11.24
H2H
Estrela
Nacional
2
0
L
21.05.23
H2H
Estrela
Nacional
0
1
W
15.01.23
H2H
Nacional
Estrela
0
1
L
16.04.22
H2H
Estrela
Nacional
0
0
D
04.12.21
H2H
Nacional
Estrela
4
1
W
Last matches: Nacional
16.08.26
Pri
Nacional
Estoril
2
0
W
22.07.26
Fri
Nacional
Leganes
0
0
D
18.07.26
Fri
Nacional
Leixoes
3
3
D
11.07.26
Fri
Nacional
Machico
1
2
L
16.05.26
Pri
Nacional
Vitória SC
2
0
W
02.05.26
Pri
Nacional
AVS
1
2
L
18.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Alverca
1
0
W
04.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Estrela
2
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Nacional
Estoril
0
1
L
28.02.26
Pri
Nacional
SC Braga
1
2
L
15.02.26
Pri
Nacional
FC Porto
0
1
L
08.02.26
Pri
Nacional
Casa Pia
0
0
D
25.01.26
Pri
Nacional
Rio Ave
4
0
W
11.01.26
Pri
Nacional
Santa Clara
3
3
D
15.12.25
Pri
Nacional
Tondela
3
1
W
29.11.25
Pri
Nacional
Benfica
1
2
L
01.11.25
Pri
Nacional
Famalicao
0
1
L
04.10.25
Pri
Nacional
Moreirense
3
2
W
20.09.25
Pri
Nacional
Arouca
1
2
L
23.08.25
Pri
Nacional
Sporting CP
1
4
L
H2H at home: Nacional
04.04.26
H2H
Nacional
Estrela
2
0
W
06.04.25
H2H
Nacional
Estrela
0
1
L
15.01.23
H2H
Nacional
Estrela
0
1
L
04.12.21
H2H
Nacional
Estrela
4
1
W
Last matches: Estrela
15.08.26
Pri
Estrela
Alverca
2
2
D
16.05.26
Pri
Estrela
SC Braga
2
2
D
02.05.26
Pri
Estrela
Moreirense
2
3
L
19.04.26
Pri
Estrela
Arouca
0
1
L
04.04.26
Pri
Estrela
Nacional
0
2
L
15.03.26
Pri
Estrela
Rio Ave
1
2
L
28.02.26
Pri
Estrela
AVS
0
0
D
14.02.26
Pri
Estrela
Vitória SC
1
2
L
31.01.26
Pri
Estrela
Alverca
1
1
D
25.01.26
Pri
Estrela
Benfica
0
4
L
27.12.25
Pri
Estrela
Famalicao
3
2
W
15.12.25
Pri
Estrela
FC Porto
1
3
L
30.11.25
Pri
Estrela
Sporting CP
0
4
L
01.11.25
Pri
Estrela
Casa Pia
5
3
W
04.10.25
Pri
Estrela
GIL Vicente
0
2
L
21.09.25
Pri
Estrela
Tondela
0
0
D
31.08.25
Pri
Estrela
Santa Clara
0
0
D
11.08.25
Pri
Estrela
Estoril
1
1
D
H2H away: Estrela
04.04.26
H2H
Nacional
Estrela
2
0
L
06.04.25
H2H
Nacional
Estrela
0
1
W
15.01.23
H2H
Nacional
Estrela
0
1
W
04.12.21
H2H
Nacional
Estrela
4
1
L
Standings
Primeira Liga
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:0 | 5 | 6 |
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 4 | 6 |
W
W
|
|
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 2 | 6 |
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9:2 | 7 | 4 |
W
D
|
|
| 5 |
Nacional
Home
|
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 2 | 4 |
W
D
|
| 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 1 | 4 |
W
D
|
|
| 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:4 | 1 | 4 |
W
D
|
|
| 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 1 | 3 |
W
|
|
| 9 |
Estrela
Away
|
2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4:4 | 0 | 2 |
D
D
|
| 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 0 | 1 |
D
|
|
| 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | -1 | 1 |
L
D
|
|
| 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | -1 | 1 |
L
D
|
|
| 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:3 | -2 | 1 |
L
D
|
|
| 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:4 | -2 | 1 |
D
L
|
|
| 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:6 | -4 | 1 |
L
D
|
|
| 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2:4 | -2 | 0 |
L
L
|
|
| 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0:3 | -3 | 0 |
L
L
|
|
| 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0:8 | -8 | 0 |
L
L
|
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2