PORTUGAL › PRIMEIRA LIGA

30.08.2026 14:30

Nacional

2 - 3

Estrela

Estádio da Madeira

Referee: Carlos Macedo, Portugal

Nacional

Match Timeline

Estrela

0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'

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Nacional vs Estrela Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2

Home Win

Probability 70%

Odds 2.41

BTTS

Yes

Probability 78.8%

Odds 1.75

Over / Under 2.5

Over 2.5

Probability 61.1%

Odds 2.02

All Markets

Market	Option	Probability	Odds	Stats & Analysis
1X2	Home Win	70%	2.41	▥
BTTS	Yes	78.8%	1.75	▥
Over / Under 2.5	Over 2.5	61.1%	2.02	▥
Corners O/U	Over 7.5 Corners	80.8%	1.21	▥
HT / FT	Home / Home	-	3.75	▥
Correct Score	2-1	-	9.50	▥

Probability Distribution

Nacional Win 70%

Draw 7.7%

Estrela Win 22.3%

Expected Goals (xG)

Nacional1.12

Estrela1.62

Recent Form (Last 5)

Nacional

WWDLW

9 GF / 11 GA

Estrela

WLDWL

16 GF / 10 GA

Key Stats

1.13

Average Goals Scored

1.78

1.38

Average Goals Conceded

1.11

BTTS Yes

Over 2.5

2.33

Shots on Goal

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nacional 8 matches

Estrela 9 matches

Nacional	Statistic	Estrela
1	Wins	4
4	Draws	4
3	Losses	1
9	Goals For	16
11	Goals Against	10
1.13	Avg Goals Scored	1.78
1.38	Avg Goals Conceded	1.11
4	BTTS Yes	6
6	Over 1.5	8
3	Over 2.5	4
2	Over 3.5	3
2	Clean Sheets	3
3	Failed To Score	0
2.33	Shots On Goal	5
12.33	Total Shots	9
4.67	Corners	2.5
53%	Ball Possession	49%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Nacional won 3 times, Estrela won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:8 from Nacional's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.78 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win

BTTS: Yes

Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5

Highest model probability: 12 (92.4%)

Predicted formations: Nacional 3-4-2-1 / Estrela 4-3-3

H2H summary: Nacional wins 3, draws 2, Estrela wins 4

Standings

Primeira Liga

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	PTS	Form
1	FC Porto	6	6	0	0	15:2	13	18	W W W W W
2	Benfica	6	5	1	0	21:4	17	16	W W W W W
3	Sporting CP	6	4	2	0	15:6	9	14	D W W W W
4	Santa Clara	6	4	2	0	11:4	7	14	W W D W W
5	Arouca	6	3	1	2	8:5	3	10	L D W L W
6	Estrela Away	6	2	4	0	14:12	2	10	D W D W D
7	SC Braga	5	3	1	1	7:5	2	10	W L W W D
8	Academico Viseu	6	2	2	2	7:9	-2	8	W W L D L
9	GIL Vicente	5	2	1	2	4:4	0	7	L L D W W
10	Maritimo	6	2	1	3	7:11	-4	7	L L L D W
11	Moreirense	6	2	1	3	7:13	-6	7	W L L W L
12	Alverca	6	1	2	3	8:11	-3	5	W L D L D
13	Famalicao	6	0	4	2	5:7	-2	4	D D D L L
14	Vitória SC	6	1	1	4	4:7	-3	4	L D L W L
15	Nacional Home	6	1	1	4	7:11	-4	4	L L L L W
16	Rio Ave	6	1	1	4	5:14	-9	4	D L L W L
17	Estoril	6	0	2	4	2:8	-6	2	L D L L L
18	Casa Pia	6	0	1	5	1:15	-14	1	L D L L L