PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
12.09.2026 14:30
Nacional
Match Timeline
Alverca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
18'
Yaya Bojang
Alverca
34'
Francisco Chissumba · Assist: Francisco Chiquinho
Alverca
36'
Dawda Camara Sankharé · Assist: Diogo Spencer
Alverca
42'
Dawda Camara Sankharé · Assist: Diogo Spencer
Alverca
🔄
45'
Daniel de Melo Araujo Junior ↔ Matchoi Djaló
Nacional
🔄
45'
Markus Jensen ↔ Song Min-kyu
Nacional
🟨
48'
Dawda Camara Sankharé
Alverca
🔄
54'
Matheus dos Santos Dias ↔ Chiheb Labidi
Nacional
🔄
65'
Francisco Chiquinho ↔ Matheus Franca
Alverca
🔄
66'
Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos ↔ André Vidigal
Alverca
🔄
69'
Stavros Gavriel ↔ Allen Obando
Nacional
🔄
72'
Dawda Camara Sankharé ↔ Vivaldo Semedo
Alverca
🟨
73'
Diogo Spencer
Alverca
🔄
78'
Pablo Ruan ↔ Fernando Nava Ortega
Nacional
🔄
79'
Davy Gui ↔ Rayan Lucas
Alverca
🔄
79'
Isaac James ↔ Cedric Nuozzi
Alverca
81'
Matchoi Djaló
Nacional

Nacional vs Alverca Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.6%
Odds 2.87
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 2.13
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.6%
2.87
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.80
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
2.13
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.83
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.33
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00
Probability Distribution
Nacional Win 56.6%
Draw 23.4%
Alverca Win 20.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nacional1.14
Alverca1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nacional Nacional
WWDLW
11 GF / 16 GA
Alverca Alverca
WLDWL
11 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.1
Average Goals Scored
1.1
1.6
Average Goals Conceded
1.2
5
BTTS Yes
5
4
Over 2.5
4
2.8
Shots on Goal
3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nacional Nacional 10 matches
Alverca Alverca 10 matches
Nacional Statistic Alverca
1 Wins 4
4 Draws 2
5 Losses 4
11 Goals For 11
16 Goals Against 12
1.1 Avg Goals Scored 1.1
1.6 Avg Goals Conceded 1.2
5 BTTS Yes 5
8 Over 1.5 7
4 Over 2.5 4
3 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 2
2.8 Shots On Goal 3
10 Total Shots 10
3.6 Corners 5.4
48.6% Ball Possession 43%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Alverca. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Nacional Analysis

Nacional sit 10 with 4 points after 5 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 6:8 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on Léo Santos (1 goals), Liziero (1 goals), Zé Vitor (1 goals), with creative support from Léo Santos (1 assists), Liziero (1 assists), Daniel Júnior (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Alverca Analysis

Alverca sit 16 with 2 points after 5 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats with a 5:10 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Vivaldo Semedo (2 goals), Ian Luccas (1 goals), Chiquinho (1 goals), with creative support from Isaac James (2 assists), Rayan (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Nacional won 1 times, Alverca won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:1 from Nacional's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (80%)
Predicted formations: Nacional 3-4-2-1 / Alverca 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Nacional wins 1, draws 0, Alverca wins 1

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 6 0 0 15:2 13 18
W W W W W
2 6 5 1 0 21:4 17 16
W W W W W
3 6 4 2 0 15:6 9 14
D W W W W
4 6 4 2 0 11:4 7 14
W W D W W
5 6 3 1 2 8:5 3 10
L D W L W
6 5 2 3 0 11:9 2 9
W D W D D
7 6 2 2 2 7:9 -2 8
W W L D L
8 4 2 1 1 6:5 1 7
L W W D
9 5 2 1 2 4:4 0 7
L L D W W
10 5 2 1 2 6:8 -2 7
L L D W W
11 6 1 2 3 8:11 -3 5
W L D L D
12 6 0 4 2 5:7 -2 4
D D D L L
13 6 1 1 4 4:7 -3 4
L D L W L
14 6 1 1 4 7:11 -4 4
L L L L W
15 5 1 1 3 4:12 -8 4
L L W L D
16 5 1 0 4 2:11 -9 3
L L W L L
17 5 0 2 3 2:7 -5 2
D L L L D
18 6 0 1 5 1:15 -14 1
L D L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2