02.09.2026 19:00
Estadio Arsenio Erico
Referee: Mario Diaz De Vivar, Paraguay
Nacional Asuncion
Match Timeline
Libertad Asuncion
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
7'
H. A. Benitez
Nacional Asuncion
🟨
20'
Ángel Cardozo Lucena
Nacional Asuncion
🟨
29'
Gustavo Aguilar
Libertad Asuncion
🔄
46'
O. Gaona Lugo ↔ I. Valdez
Nacional Asuncion
🔄
46'
R. Villalba ↔ G. Flores
Libertad Asuncion
🔄
46'
N. Freire ↔ L. Nequecaur
Libertad Asuncion
55'
L. Meza
Nacional Asuncion
🔄
59'
L. Sanabria ↔ E. Villalba
Libertad Asuncion
🔄
59'
F. Carrizo ↔ I. Franco
Libertad Asuncion
🔄
68'
A. Benitez ↔ I. Ramirez
Libertad Asuncion
🔄
70'
L. Meza ↔ R. Melgarejo
Nacional Asuncion
🔄
70'
H. A. Benitez ↔ I. Bailone
Nacional Asuncion
🟨
71'
Álvaro Campuzano
Libertad Asuncion
🔄
79'
A. Cardozo Lucena ↔ R. C. Ramirez Antunez
Nacional Asuncion
82'
I. Valdez · Assist: R. Prieto
Nacional Asuncion
🔄
85'
R. Prieto ↔ D. J. Colman Escobar
Nacional Asuncion

Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61%
Odds 2.60
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.32
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61%
2.60
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.91
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.32
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
74.1%
1.15
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Nacional Asuncion Win 61%
Draw 4.5%
Libertad Asuncion Win 34.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nacional Asuncion1.39
Libertad Asuncion1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion
WWDLW
42 GF / 27 GA
Libertad Asuncion Libertad Asuncion
WLDWL
50 GF / 45 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
1.43
0.93
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
18
BTTS Yes
17
12
Over 2.5
17
3.97
Shots on Goal
4.49

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 29 matches
Libertad Asuncion Libertad Asuncion 35 matches
Nacional Asuncion Statistic Libertad Asuncion
13 Wins 14
12 Draws 5
4 Losses 16
42 Goals For 50
27 Goals Against 45
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 1.43
0.93 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
18 BTTS Yes 17
23 Over 1.5 22
12 Over 2.5 17
4 Over 3.5 10
10 Clean Sheets 9
4 Failed To Score 10
3.97 Shots On Goal 4.49
11.62 Total Shots 12.54
4.55 Corners 4.49
49.4% Ball Possession 52.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Libertad Asuncion. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Libertad Asuncion look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Libertad Asuncion carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 15 points while Nacional Asuncion sit 4 on 9, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Nacional Asuncion Analysis

Nacional Asuncion arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 9 points after 6 matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 8:5 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Hugo Adrián Benítez (3 goals), Josué Colmán (1 goals), Roque Santa Cruz (1 goals), with creative support from Orlando Gaona Lugo (3 assists), Thomas Gutiérrez (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Libertad Asuncion Analysis

Libertad Asuncion come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 15 points after 6 matches. With 5 wins, 0 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 11:5, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by I. Ramirez (1 goals), A. Benítez (1 goals), Matías Espinoza (1 goals), with creative support from I. Ramirez (2 assists), Á. Campuzano (2 assists), A. Benítez (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Nacional Asuncion won 5 times, Libertad Asuncion won 9 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:27 from Nacional Asuncion's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.5%)
Predicted formations: Nacional Asuncion 4-4-2 / Libertad Asuncion 4-4-2
H2H summary: Nacional Asuncion wins 5, draws 1, Libertad Asuncion wins 9

Standings

Primera Division: Clausura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 6 3 0 12:6 6 21
W D W D W
2 9 6 1 2 16:11 5 19
W L D W W
3 9 5 1 3 14:9 5 16
W D W W W
4 9 4 3 2 14:6 8 15
L W W W D
5 9 4 2 3 15:8 7 14
L W L D D
6 9 3 4 2 11:11 0 13
W L D W L
7 9 3 4 2 10:8 2 13
W D D D L
8 9 4 1 4 12:9 3 13
W W D L W
9 9 3 1 5 11:17 -6 10
L D W L L
10 9 2 2 5 11:19 -8 8
L W L D W
11 9 2 1 6 12:20 -8 7
L L L L L
12 9 0 1 8 3:17 -14 1
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)