PARAGUAY DIVISION PROFESIONAL - APERTURA
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Arsenio Erico
Referee: J. Benitez
Nacional Asuncion
Match Timeline
Libertad Asuncion
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
9'
Mauro Coronel
Nacional Asuncion
20'
M. D. Espinoza Acosta · Assist: L. Melgarejo
Libertad Asuncion
29'
O. Gaona Lugo · Assist: I. Valdez
Nacional Asuncion
VAR
45+4'
Sebastian Vargas
Nacional Asuncion
🟨
45+5'
Marcelo Fernandez
Libertad Asuncion
45'
D. J. Colman Escobar
Nacional Asuncion
🔄
46'
A. Fretes ↔ I. Franco
Libertad Asuncion
🔄
46'
J. Bernal ↔ E. Villalba
Libertad Asuncion
🔄
59'
I. Valdez ↔ R. Prieto
Nacional Asuncion
🔄
59'
D. J. Colman Escobar ↔ A. Samudio
Nacional Asuncion
🔄
71'
H. Caballero ↔ A. Molinas
Libertad Asuncion
🔄
72'
M. Fernandez ↔ R. Villalba
Libertad Asuncion
🔄
75'
C. R. Santa ↔ I. Bailone
Nacional Asuncion
🔄
76'
G. Aguilar ↔ J. Recalde
Libertad Asuncion
🟨
77'
Thomas Gutiérrez
Nacional Asuncion
🟨
84'
Santiago Rojas
Nacional Asuncion
🟨
90+4'
Jorge Recalde
Libertad Asuncion
🔄
90+3'
A. D. Canete Torres ↔ L. Caceres
Nacional Asuncion
🔄
90+3'
L. Meza ↔ S. Torales
Nacional Asuncion

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 87.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
87.4%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
74.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nacional Asuncion Win 87.4%
Draw 0%
Libertad Asuncion Win 12.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nacional Asuncion1.38
Libertad Asuncion1.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion
WWDLW
29 GF / 21 GA
Libertad Asuncion Libertad Asuncion
WLDWL
37 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
1.38
Average Goals Scored
1.42
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
14
BTTS Yes
11
9
Over 2.5
12
3.86
Shots on Goal
4.35

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 21 matches
Libertad Asuncion Libertad Asuncion 26 matches
Nacional Asuncion Statistic Libertad Asuncion
9 Wins 9
9 Draws 4
3 Losses 13
29 Goals For 37
21 Goals Against 36
1.38 Avg Goals Scored 1.42
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
14 BTTS Yes 11
16 Over 1.5 16
9 Over 2.5 12
3 Over 3.5 9
6 Clean Sheets 7
3 Failed To Score 9
3.86 Shots On Goal 4.35
11.71 Total Shots 12.19
4.81 Corners 4.08
50.7% Ball Possession 50.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Libertad Asuncion. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nacional Asuncion expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Libertad Asuncion in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Libertad Asuncion having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Nacional Asuncion Analysis

Nacional Asuncion come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 36 points after 21 matches. With 9 wins, 9 draws, and 3 defeats plus a goal balance of 29:21, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by I. Bailone (5 goals), I. Valdez (4 goals), H. A. Benitez (3 goals), with creative support from A. D. Canete Torres (3 assists), I. Valdez (2 assists), O. Gaona Lugo (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Libertad Asuncion Analysis

Libertad Asuncion approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 31 points after 21 outings. They have recorded 9 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, with a 33:24 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Lorenzo Melgarejo (13 goals), D. Fernandez (5 goals), F. Carrizo (4 goals), with creative support from Alexis Fretes (4 assists), D. Fernandez (3 assists), F. Carrizo (3 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Nacional Asuncion won 5 times, Libertad Asuncion won 9 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:27 from Nacional Asuncion's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Nacional Asuncion 4-2-3-1 / Libertad Asuncion 4-4-2
H2H summary: Nacional Asuncion wins 5, draws 1, Libertad Asuncion wins 9
Stats
Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion Libertad Asuncion
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
7
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
4
3 Corner Kicks 8
12 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 0
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Goal 2
5 Shots off Goal 7
3 Blocked Shots 4
8 Shots insidebox 7
3 Shots outsidebox 6
1 Goalkeeper Saves 1
402 Total passes 479
302 Passes accurate 376
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Nacional Asuncion
Formation
Libertad Asuncion
S. Rojas
S. Rojas
A. D. Canete Torres
A. D. Canete Torres
M. Coronel
M. Coronel
T. Gutierrez
T. Gutierrez
S. Vargas
S. Vargas
L. Meza
L. Meza
O. Gaona Lugo
O. Gaona Lugo
F. Jara
F. Jara
I. Valdez
🎯
I. Valdez
D. J. Colman Escobar
D. J. Colman Escobar
C. R. Santa
C. R. Santa
V. Rojas
V. Rojas
J. Bernal
J. Bernal
D. Viera
D. Viera
N. Gimenez
N. Gimenez
M. D. Espinoza Acosta
M. D. Espinoza Acosta
H. Caballero
H. Caballero
A. Fretes
A. Fretes
M. Fernandez
M. Fernandez
H. Martinez
H. Martinez
L. Melgarejo
🎯
L. Melgarejo
G. Aguilar
G. Aguilar
Nacional Asuncion 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
30
S. Rojas
🟨 84'
G
3
A. D. Canete Torres
↓ 90+3'
D
26
M. Coronel
🟨 9'
D
4
T. Gutierrez
🟨 77'
D
29
S. Vargas
13
L. Meza
↓ 90+3'
M
33
O. Gaona Lugo
⚽ 29'
M
8
F. Jara
M
18
I. Valdez
🎯 29' ↓ 59'
M
22
D. J. Colman Escobar
⚽ 45' ↓ 59'
M
24
C. R. Santa
↓ 75'
F
Substitutes
1
G. Ortiz
G
7
I. Bailone
↑ 75'
F
27
R. Prieto
↑ 59'
F
28
A. Samudio
↑ 59'
F
23
C. Espinola
D
15
L. Caceres
↑ 90+3'
D
6
S. Torales
↑ 90+3'
M
17
J. Santacruz
M
5
G. Benitez
D
19
L. Gonzales
9
H. A. Benitez
32
M. Garrone
F
Libertad Asuncion 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
29
V. Rojas
G
37
J. Bernal
↓ 46'
D
5
D. Viera
D
4
N. Gimenez
D
17
M. D. Espinoza Acosta
⚽ 20'
D
26
H. Caballero
↓ 71'
M
14
A. Fretes
↓ 46'
M
28
M. Fernandez
↓ 72' 🟨 45+5'
M
22
H. Martinez
M
10
L. Melgarejo
🎯 20'
M
11
G. Aguilar
↓ 76'
F
Substitutes
25
A. Gonzalez
G
19
J. Recalde
↑ 76' 🟨 90+4'
M
30
O. R. Vera
27
A. Molinas
↑ 71'
M
15
A. Benitez
D
18
I. Franco
↑ 46'
M
24
R. Villalba
↑ 72'
D
32
S. Delvalle
D
33
C. Martinez
13
J. Bogarin
34
E. Villalba
↑ 46'
D
40
F. Herrera
D
Last matches: Nacional Asuncion
15.05.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Rubio NU
1
1
D
09.05.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Trinidense
2
1
W
03.05.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Club Guarani
1
0
W
24.04.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta
2
1
W
20.04.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Ameliano
1
1
D
11.04.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Cerro Porteno
0
0
D
04.04.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Olimpia
0
3
L
31.03.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
2 de Mayo
1
1
D
27.03.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
3
2
W
22.03.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
0
0
D
18.03.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
1
2
L
15.03.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Rubio NU
1
0
W
09.03.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Trinidense
1
1
D
01.03.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Club Guarani
1
1
D
26.02.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta
2
2
D
19.02.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Ameliano
1
1
D
15.02.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Cerro Porteno
2
0
W
08.02.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Olimpia
1
2
L
31.01.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
2 de Mayo
5
1
W
27.01.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
2
1
W
Last matches: Libertad Asuncion
27.05.26
CON
Libertad Asuncion
UCV
0
1
L
20.05.26
CON
Libertad Asuncion
Independiente del Valle
1
4
L
14.05.26
Div
Libertad Asuncion
2 de Mayo
0
0
D
10.05.26
Div
Libertad Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
3
2
W
05.05.26
CON
Libertad Asuncion
Rosario Central
0
1
L
01.05.26
Div
Libertad Asuncion
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
5
0
W
28.04.26
CON
Libertad Asuncion
Independiente del Valle
2
3
L
25.04.26
Div
Libertad Asuncion
Olimpia
3
2
W
21.04.26
Div
Libertad Asuncion
Rubio NU
0
3
L
15.04.26
CON
Libertad Asuncion
Rosario Central
0
1
L
12.04.26
Div
Libertad Asuncion
Sportivo Trinidense
1
1
D
09.04.26
CON
Libertad Asuncion
UCV
1
3
L
05.04.26
Div
Libertad Asuncion
Club Guarani
0
1
L
30.03.26
Div
Libertad Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta
1
0
W
27.03.26
Div
Libertad Asuncion
Sportivo Ameliano
0
2
L
21.03.26
Div
Libertad Asuncion
Cerro Porteno
2
3
L
18.03.26
Div
Libertad Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion
2
1
W
13.03.26
Div
Libertad Asuncion
2 de Mayo
2
0
W
07.03.26
Div
Libertad Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
1
0
W
02.03.26
Div
Libertad Asuncion
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
7
0
W
H2H: Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion
24.05.26
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
2
1
W
18.03.26
H2H
Libertad Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion
2
1
L
27.09.25
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
3
1
W
19.07.25
H2H
Libertad Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion
0
1
W
11.04.25
H2H
Libertad Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion
1
0
L
29.01.25
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
0
3
L
06.12.24
H2H
Libertad Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion
1
0
L
29.09.24
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
2
1
W
28.07.24
H2H
Libertad Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion
1
2
W
22.05.24
H2H
Libertad Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion
5
0
L
17.04.24
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
1
1
D
09.11.23
H2H
Libertad Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion
3
1
L
24.09.23
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
2
3
L
07.07.23
H2H
Libertad Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion
2
0
L
29.04.23
H2H
Libertad Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion
2
1
L
Last matches: Nacional Asuncion
09.05.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Trinidense
2
1
W
24.04.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta
2
1
W
11.04.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Cerro Porteno
0
0
D
27.03.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
3
2
W
15.03.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Rubio NU
1
0
W
01.03.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Club Guarani
1
1
D
19.02.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Ameliano
1
1
D
08.02.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Olimpia
1
2
L
31.01.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
2 de Mayo
5
1
W
24.01.26
Div
Nacional Asuncion
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
1
0
W
H2H at home: Nacional Asuncion
24.05.26
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
2
1
W
27.09.25
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
3
1
W
29.01.25
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
0
3
L
29.09.24
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
2
1
W
17.04.24
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
1
1
D
24.09.23
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
2
3
L
Last matches: Libertad Asuncion
20.05.26
CON
Libertad Asuncion
Independiente del Valle
1
4
L
10.05.26
Div
Libertad Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
3
2
W
05.05.26
CON
Libertad Asuncion
Rosario Central
0
1
L
21.04.26
Div
Libertad Asuncion
Rubio NU
0
3
L
09.04.26
CON
Libertad Asuncion
UCV
1
3
L
05.04.26
Div
Libertad Asuncion
Club Guarani
0
1
L
27.03.26
Div
Libertad Asuncion
Sportivo Ameliano
0
2
L
13.03.26
Div
Libertad Asuncion
2 de Mayo
2
0
W
02.03.26
Div
Libertad Asuncion
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
7
0
W
25.02.26
Div
Libertad Asuncion
Olimpia
0
1
L
15.02.26
Div
Libertad Asuncion
Sportivo Trinidense
0
1
L
02.02.26
Div
Libertad Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta
1
2
L
24.01.26
Div
Libertad Asuncion
Cerro Porteno
1
1
D
H2H away: Libertad Asuncion
24.05.26
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
2
1
L
27.09.25
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
3
1
L
29.01.25
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
0
3
W
29.09.24
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
2
1
L
17.04.24
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
1
1
D
24.09.23
H2H
Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
2
3
W

Standings

Primera Division: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 15 4 3 37:17 20 49
W W L D L
2 22 10 9 3 31:22 9 39
W D W W W
3 22 11 5 6 30:22 8 38
W L D L D
4 22 8 9 5 27:21 6 33
L L W D D
5 22 8 8 6 30:24 6 32
W W L L L
6 22 9 4 9 34:26 8 31
L D W W W
7 22 7 8 7 27:23 4 29
L W D L D
8 22 8 4 10 35:32 3 28
W L L W L
9 22 6 5 11 15:26 -11 23
L D L D W
10 22 5 7 10 18:35 -17 22
L D W W D
11 22 5 5 12 24:33 -9 20
L D L D W
12 22 3 6 13 14:41 -27 15
W D W L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)